yoda Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I've always felt that around hour 84-148 or so is when the Euro seems to verify the highest relative to the other models. It's kind of it's wheelhouse. That is true, but the map Ji posted in the first post I don't even think is right for this weekend's "storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 That is true, but the map Ji posted in the first post I don't even think is right for this weekend's "storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Bob many of the posters here are most likely interested in the decent front end precip the Euro brings in in the first place. I agree and that's totally fine. I was just keeping expectation in check because there are probably going to be runs that look good after the transfer. Also, that snow map is suspect. Doesn't line up well with 850's and folks near the cities are marginal at the surface again. We could do ok with the hp progged. Poor Wes gets about a half inch, me and Ian get about 1-2" if we're lucky, Ji about 3-4", mappy about 5", and winwxlur around 50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Will Chill is right...do not invest a lot of time on this one...cold rain for DCA...most likely worst than today's event...and that is painful to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I see folks biting in the thread here. I know the long timers know what to expect but it's worth pointing some stuff out for someone who looks at panels and gets excited. Primary low into OH means we lose 850's at some point. Maybe a front end thump to dryslot. That would be great imo. But unless that low jumps further south or the primary dies super quick (models show it hanging on and even if they didn't the primary ALWAYS hangs on longer than we'd like it too). Once the jump happens we are usually at the losing end because of latitude. We have to wait and wait and wait as the column "gets right" again and typically by the time it gets just right we are watching all the precip pulling away from philly and SNE getting destroyed beyond recognition. If there is anything to watch on models it's how strong and where the primary dies. Then subtract a few mb's and move it 50-100 miles north. If it's showing the low dying in kentucky and reforming off the va capes then I might be interested in something after the front end. Bob, with cold seeming to win this season, the Euro progressively moving this system south, and today's system an example of the progressiveness of the pattern (not forgetting the 2nd half of Sunday's event that slide to our south), I don't think the Euro has stopped with a more southern (friendlier) track for this system. In fact, I remember specifically saying last week around this time that when the computers starting progging Sunday's event north I couldn't recall a storm going south again. Well, ahem, we all know Sunday's did, so that's sort of another feather in the cap making me think it could come further south. And considering 50 miles is all we need, what's 50 miles globally speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 DT says this storm sets up a good snow storm 18-19, that coudl be the REDEMPTION storm. AKA PEAK SUN ANGLE. Ian wil love it. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I agree and that's totally fine. I was just keeping expectation in check because there are probably going to be runs that look good after the transfer. Also, that snow map is suspect. Doesn't line up well with 850's and folks near the cities are marginal at the surface again. We could do ok with the hp progged. Poor Wes gets about a half inch, me and Ian get about 1-2" if we're lucky, Ji about 3-4", mappy about 5", and winwxlur around 50". One of the cutoffs on the panel above your post cuts right through us, heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Bob, with cold seeming to win this season, the Euro progressively moving this system south, and today's system an example of the progressiveness of the pattern (not forgetting the 2nd half of Sunday's event that slide to our south), I don't think the Euro has stopped with a more southern (friendlier) track for this system. In fact, I remember specifically saying last week around this time that when the computers starting progging Sunday's event north I couldn't recall a storm going south again. Well, ahem, we all know Sunday's did, so that's sort of another fetaher in the cap making me think it could come further south. And considering 50 miles is all we need, what's 50 miles globally speaking. I'm not trying to be a deb. You know I will watch the details hoping for exactly what you are saying. We have quite a resume with storms like this. They tease on the models leading in and we walk a tightrope of temps and location. one thing goes wrong and things go really wrong. I haven't looked at the 500 vort panels of the euro in detail. the gfs phases ns energy and pulls the storm right up to our west. Logical but just a model. The only thing off the table is suppressed imo. Those big bad highs can't stop a low from going west though. It happened sunday no problem. I don't see why this setup is unique in that regards. If anything, the hp to the north is a bit weaker and not pressing. We'll see though. I would be thrilled with 2" on the front. I'm at 3.5" and a 1/4" of sleet on the season. I'm starting to think this month is just going to happen in some form or another. good times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 DT says this storm sets up a good snow storm 18-19, that coudl be the REDEMPTION storm. AKA PEAK SUN ANGLE. Ian wil love it. :-) DT has been touting his excellent forecasts from these last two events... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Will Chill is right...do not invest a lot of time on this one...cold rain for DCA...most likely worst than today's event...and that is painful to say Was wondering when you'd start making your silly forecasts again. Let us know when it will snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Was wondering when you'd start making your silly forecasts again. Let us know when it will snow again. I would expect some winter weather in Oakland, MD this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I see folks biting in the thread here. I know the long timers know what to expect but it's worth pointing some stuff out for someone who looks at panels and gets excited. Primary low into OH means we lose 850's at some point. Maybe a front end thump to dryslot. That would be great imo. But unless that low jumps further south or the primary dies super quick (models show it hanging on and even if they didn't the primary ALWAYS hangs on longer than we'd like it too). Once the jump happens we are usually at the losing end because of latitude. We have to wait and wait and wait as the column "gets right" again and typically by the time it gets just right we are watching all the precip pulling away from philly and SNE getting destroyed beyond recognition. If there is anything to watch on models it's how strong and where the primary dies. Then subtract a few mb's and move it 50-100 miles north. If it's showing the low dying in kentucky and reforming off the va capes then I might be interested in something after the front end. The last one was modeled to be a low that went to the OV. That never materialized and we ended up staying "warm" after the wave passed. What you describe is the trend I'm looking for, either a jump with a dry slot or an early jump. Both give us a mess but they drag in cold quickly provided it's there to grab. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 What is the mechanism to have a secondary develop off the coast. Is it a dying primary coupled with a HP that is pressing south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Don't think wxRisk 4-6 for most of DC was good. Should have recognized that 100% humidty, fog and 34.5* might present some problems but I did not jump on that. Still got 2.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I know, I know it's the NAM at 84 hrs, but this ain't bad http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M also, if you loop the 500-1000mb thickness maps on the NAM, the thicknesses actually go down as the system gets closer to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 What is the mechanism to have a secondary develop off the coast. Is it a dying primary coupled with a HP that is pressing south? The primary dies because it has nowhere to go. HP doesn't have to be pressing south it just has to put up a wall. As an area of lp tracks into the hp it progressively weakens. There's a baroclinic zone along the coast in the winter due to temp gradient. If the primary is close enough a new area of lp will form off the coast and restrengthen. Typically with miller b's the lp off the coast forms pretty far south but it is very weak and rides up along with the primary basically unnoticed for the most part. Once the primary hits the wall it just feeds the lp off the coast and it strengthens from there. If a primary low was cutting to chicago It's too far west to transfer anywhere. Those scenarios are usually front end only and dryslot drizzle. Last december had a pretty classic example of that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I think I know what road this storm takes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Weenies Anonymous meeting tonight at the Philly forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The primary dies because it has nowhere to go. HP doesn't have to be pressing south it just has to put up a wall. As an area of lp tracks into the hp it progressively weakens. There's a baroclinic zone along the coast in the winter due to temp gradient. If the primary is close enough a new area of lp will form off the coast and restrengthen. Typically with miller b's the lp off the coast forms pretty far south but it is very weak and rides up along with the primary basically unnoticed for the most part. Once the primary hits the wall it just feeds the lp off the coast and it strengthens from there. If a primary low was cutting to chicago It's too far west to transfer anywhere. Those scenarios are usually front end only and dryslot drizzle. Last december had a pretty classic example of that scenario. Thanks Bob. Growing up in South Jersey, I remember a lot more redeveloping coastal storms back in the 1960's being talked about by the Philly mets or forecasters that were on air. Does anyone know if there were more Miller B's back then? Back then it seemed they were redeveloping off Cape Hatteras moreso than further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Weenies Anonymous meeting tonight at the Philly forum Most action in the forum since "the exodus". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Probably setting up for disappointment, but I wonder how the Euro ensembles compared to the Op. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Probably setting up for disappointment, but I wonder how the Euro ensembles compared to the Op. MDstorm Heard the Euro ensembles had the SLP over ACY, so it's likely a little west, but not catastrophically so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Heard the Euro ensembles had the SLP over ACY, so it's likely a little west, but not catastrophically so. OMG! It's you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Heard the Euro ensembles had the SLP over ACY, so it's likely a little west, but not catastrophically so. Thanks MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Probably setting up for disappointment, but I wonder how the Euro ensembles compared to the Op. MDstorm not as good as those maps from a pay site, but it gives you the idea http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Temperature%20at%20850hPa!North%20America!0!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013121000!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 OMG! It's you!!! OMG, it IS me! To participate on here (or in pretty much anything these days), I pretty much have to ignore my wife, two kids and job, so understandably it doesn't happen often because I value my income, my family and my nuts. Tracking this next one may constitute an acceptable risk to most of that, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 We have received enough frozen out here from the first two events to at least pay attention to this thing. Everyone please remember it takes me an hour and twenty minutes to drive to work as long as traffic is not a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 not as good as those maps from a pay site, but it gives you the idea http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/ensm/essential!Temperature%20at%20850hPa!North%20America!0!pop!od!enfo!plot_ensm_essential!2013121000!!/ Thanks. Not out for 12Z today yet. Will check back later. Don't want the ensemble mean to be too far west of OP. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 OMG, it IS me! To participate on here (or in pretty much anything these days), I pretty much have to ignore my wife, two kids and job, so understandably it doesn't happen often because I value my income, my family and my nuts. Tracking this next one may constitute an acceptable risk to most of that, however. Good to see you man...and yeah, definitely understand. That list you mentioned is a wee bit more important than posting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Learning from the past....me no likey miller b....that's how you heartbreak us in the west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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