usedtobe Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nam precip is ej-nemic Not sure what that means but it does have that look of the dry slot coming in quick with one swatch north of us and then stuff reforming to the east. Sort of an anemic miller b look where if it were cold we might get 1-3 but at 35 or so, probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not sure what that means but it does have that low of the dry slot coming in quick with one swatch north of us and then stuff reforming to the east. Sort of an anemic miller b look where if it were cold we might get 1-3 but at 35 or so, probably not. verbatim, it looks like slop after snow at first the surface temps do cool with the heavier precip (relatively speaking), but by that time it's too late we probably need at least 2 more degrees colder, at least in the closer in burbs, with more in downtown DCA & BALT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nam precip is ej-nemic Front-end caress? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 per Instate Weather maps, BWI is categorical snow hours 48 and 51 and is probably, eyeballing it, just misses hr 54, but places north are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 thru 60 hours 18Z NAM fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 thru 60 hours 18Z NAM fwiw A lot of that is FZRA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 A lot of that is FZRA. could be, but it corresponds to the categorical snow maps every 3 hrs but it ain't gunna happen unless things change drastically so it's not worth dissecting too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not sure what that means but it does have that look of the dry slot coming in quick with one swatch north of us and then stuff reforming to the east. Sort of an anemic miller b look where if it were cold we might get 1-3 but at 35 or so, probably not. a bit of an inside joke. Yes, definitely anemic.Models have been showing the separation in various ways. Best lift and precip from the primary is north. Secondary delivers rain favoring the eastern half of the cwa. This map kinda sums it up in regards to snow. This is through hour 57 so not all snow east of Fred/loudon county. It's obviously the NAM at 57 so that should be noted but it could definitely be a clue that the best lift and moisture skips us with both features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 A lot of that is FZRA. You're saying the NAM categorizes FZRA as snow in it's snow depth? The map is snow depth too, not a map of new accumulations. See F00 where there is actually more snow in many areas, including across Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 a bit of an inside joke. Yes, definitely anemic.Models have been showing the separation in various ways. Best lift and precip from the primary is north. Secondary delivers rain favoring the eastern half of the cwa. This map kinda sums it up in regards to snow. This is through hour 57 so not all snow east of Fred/loudon county. nam57.JPG It's obviously the NAM at 57 so that should be noted but it could definitely be a clue that the best lift and moisture skips us with both features. It should be a rule to have to leave date/fhr, map legend and title on images posted. We know it's f57 NAM, but beyond that, not much so it's hard to follow what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 You're saying the NAM categorizes FZRA as snow in it's snow depth? The map is snow depth too, not a map of new accumulations. See F00 where there is actually more snow in many areas, including across Maryland: Ahh, yeah your right. I quick looked and assumed that he was posting accums, not depth. That makes much more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 It should be a rule to have to leave date/fhr, map legend and title on images posted. We know it's f57 NAM, but beyond that, not much so it's hard to follow what you're saying. It's hard to follow a precip hole? I don't like posting full maps all the time. Especially when just illustrating a detail versus full output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I admittedly haven't been following Saturday very closely, but 18z GFS happy hour doesn't look particularly happy to me. 850s are fine when precip starts, but the column is above freezing below 925mb for almost everyone except the very far N/W zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Dang...Happy Hour is quiet...Anyway WPC gives the I95 corrior only a 1-5% chance of greater than or equal to 2"...Tommy T was just on in Baltimore, showed the RPM model snowfall, nothing for DC, inch or less for close to Baltimore...Dont know a lot about RPM but I know its the in house model for these TV Schmucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Friday happy hour will be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Dang...Happy Hour is quiet...Anyway WPC gives the I95 corrior only a 1-5% chance of greater than or equal to 2"...Tommy T was just on in Baltimore, showed the RPM model snowfall, nothing for DC, inch or less for close to Baltimore...Dont know a lot about RPM but I know its the in house model for these TV Schmucks. although I think most of north central md gets accumulating snow before a change over, I don't think it will be anything more than an inch or two, . just not our storm in Maryland, unless ur west of Westminster in carroll county then maybe youll see 2 inches or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I admittedly haven't been following Saturday very closely, but 18z GFS happy hour doesn't look particularly happy to me. 850s are fine when precip starts, but the column is above freezing below 925mb for almost everyone except the very far N/W zones. I agree, this isn't our storm, cant get them all, im happy we got 2 snow events in a week and its only dec 12th, a lot of winter left, infact..... techinally winter don't really star for 9 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Not sure what that means but it does have that look of the dry slot coming in quick with one swatch north of us and then stuff reforming to the east. Sort of an anemic miller b look where if it were cold we might get 1-3 but at 35 or so, probably not. a bit of an inside joke. Yes, definitely anemic.Models have been showing the separation in various ways. Best lift and precip from the primary is north. Secondary delivers rain favoring the eastern half of the cwa. This map kinda sums it up in regards to snow. This is through hour 57 so not all snow east of Fred/loudon county. It's obviously the NAM at 57 so that should be noted but it could definitely be a clue that the best lift and moisture skips us with both features. Bob the NAM isn't showing stellar consistency on its precip. Top image is 12z run 24 hr precip at 7 pm sat., bottom is same time frame 18z run. Not sure the NAM should be trusted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Likely, perhaps not. Possible, you bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Likely, perhaps not. Possible, you bet. Paul Kocin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Likely, perhaps not. Possible, you bet. The Poconos about to get it good .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The Poconos about to get it good .. I see what you did there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Lots of convection with the frontal zone. Looks almost like a March setup. Someone along the MD line will get 6"+ out of this while somebody else along the MD line gets screwed. Hopefully it trends colder and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Likely, perhaps not. Possible, you bet. This map isnt a shock...no chance for the cities, slight chance for northwest burbs and a decent chance for far northwest....No surprises in my opinion there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I just want to tell you all, good luck, we're all counting on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 This map isnt a shock...no chance for the cities, slight chance for northwest burbs and a decent chance for far northwest....No surprises in my opinion there... I agree, the people that ALWAYS get the big snows are getting it, no big shocker there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Bob the NAM isn't showing stellar consistency on its precip. Top image is 12z run 24 hr precip at 7 pm sat., bottom is same time frame 18z run. Not sure the NAM should be trusted. I wasn't really using the nam as a precip total tool with my post. Just just pointing out that it shows 2 precip maximas. One NW and one SE. We are in the middle so our area will likely verify on the low end of totals of the front end precip. It's not just the nam showing off and on. I haven't seen any model run show good rates with the front end precip. At least nowhere near dc/balt anyways. I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I wasn't really using the nam as a precip total tool with my post. Just just pointing out that it shows 2 precip maximas. One NW and one SE. We are in the middle so our area will likely verify on the low end of totals of the front end precip. It's not just the nam showing off and on. I haven't seen any model run show good rates with the front end precip. At least nowhere near dc/balt anyways. I'm out. psssssst....Bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 RGEM isn't a big hit, but some mood flakes for sure before a change http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 psssssst....Bob now that is one strong cold high to the north;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.