Ian Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Except for area like okv/mrb the snowmap is pretty flawed. Above freezing surface and light rates won't accum much at all for many closer in folks. DCA gets like .01" liquid with temps near freezing. 30:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 They start off similar but we lose them much quicker. Kinda toasty in the later panels. The biggest diff is balt area during the event. how so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 how so? not in a good way. they fold like a walmart tent. The orientation of the temp contours are much different. Instead of retreating more s-n they retreat se-nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 DCA gets like .01" liquid with temps near freezing. 30:1? eh, a little agressive. I was thinking 22.5:1 but I'll go with what you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Cumberland area looks like the sweet spot in the region but I haven't looked at snowmaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Dont the Euro snow maps use a 10:1 ratio? If so they dont make any sense at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 No surprise as gfs looked warmer too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The very accurate NWS snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Dont the Euro snow maps use a 10:1 ratio? If so they dont make any sense at all. It seems like the D.C. area surface temps shoot above freezing right away on the 12Z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The very accurate NWS snow map Bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The very accurate NWS snow map Same old same old, I wonder now if they use some sort of algorithm to average particular models. Heck, even the max potential map doesn't really support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hagerstown great place for this storm. Randy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 most of the area is above freezing by 1pm. That includes most of fred/loudon county. the messiest messy event in years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think this may be a more useful map from the LWX winter page - have to go north of MoCo/ west of Fairfax before the odds of one inch of snow become positive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Bullish Very bullish. I don't see them getting any accumulation, maybe a trashcan dusting but the Bob is right, light rates with above freezing temps get you nada. Out towards Cumberland and the far western guys probalby will see some accumulations. Otherwise it's just a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 All the nws computer generated stuff has little value imo. Neither do the point and clicks. They jump around like accuwx and appear to be based on some kind of computer data output with not forecaster revisions. I don't even look at any of that stuff. Reading the afd's and text zone forecasts is much more sensible. At least to me it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hagerstown great place for this storm. Randy? Nah..no need to go chase 1" of snow followed by slop then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nah..no need to go chase 1" of snow followed by slop then rain. lol HGR per euro is below 32 for for about .50 qpf of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 First and Final Call: DCA: Rain (shocker) BWI: Rain with a few mangled wet flakes IAD: Short lived wintery mix then rain, no accumulations OKV: Wet snow to start, add an inch to existing snowpack, roads mainly wet, ends as drizzle HGR: Jackpot 1.5 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 A SPLIT FLOW IN THE JET STREAM IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERN BRANCHENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING AND NORTHERN BRANCHENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILLTRACK INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN BRANCHSYSTEM SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER SINCE IT ISNOT EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH.WARM AND MOIST AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM WILL OVERRUNTHE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE...CAUSING INCREASING CLOUDS. MUCH OFTHE NIGHT WILL BE DRY...BUT SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUTTOWARD MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS INTOCENTRAL VIRGINIA.THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO OUR REGION SATURDAY.SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE COASTALLOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. WARM AND MOISTAIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE SURFACE COLD AIR INPLACE...RESULTING IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION.THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION. MOST PLACESWILL START OFF AS SNOW AND SLEET SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WARMER AIRWORKS ITS WAY INTO THE STORM SYSTEM...CAUSING PRECIPITATION TOCHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLYACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE LOW-LEVELCOLD AIR WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST. ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZINGRAIN IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGEMOUNTAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL HANG ON THE LONGEST. ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 They mean Westminster :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 They mean Westminster :-) pretty sure we can both do just fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The non-phase scenario was well-discussed in the Boston NWS office early this morning. That, I think, would help us to stay colder, but drier. Maybe some of us can eek out a 1 - 3" to drizzle ala 80's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 pretty sure we can both do just fine Ill keep my fingers crossed. The last two events were fun for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 18Z NAM at 45 hrs is, of course, colder than 12z thru 51hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM should give us some better snow maps, albeit fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Notice the low is south of the 12z..where it was on the delmarva..now trending more south.around the NC/ VA boarder (va beach/.).interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Notice the low is south of the 12z..where it was on the delmarva..now trending more south.around the NC/ VA boarder (va beach/.).interesting.. 32 degree line is along I95 for bulk of precip thru 60 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Nam precip is ej-nemic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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