The 12/14-15 The bad pattern storm

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

i'm in the minority, but it doesn't bother me one iota when someone from another location mentions how much snow they got. i'm not sure why it doesn't annoy me, but it doesn't. in some ways, i kinda like the fact that i can find out much snow someone got without having to switch threads. i'm lazy like that.

I am a winter weather enthusiast. We follow the models, threads, trends, nws, etc to see what a storm will do. Once it is over we reflect and try to learn based on the final result. I want to hear about snow, rain wind, or whatever reports there are concernimg the outcome of the system I tracked for days. Every location will yield something different and learning from that experience can help sometimes predict the next storm more clearly.

[mitchnick]

12z GGEM is problematic for the cities, as expected but northern MD specifically out near Manchester/Frederick and north above the PA line look to due decently well..While a tough forecast, I think its generally clear cut..north and west of baltimore theres potential for 1-3 inches of snow and near the PA line and accross it, theres potential for 2-4+...Cities, likely not much at all.

GGEM ain't so hot, or maybe I should say that is often its problem

I think I'll wait until this thing gets in range of the RGEM before putting my faith in the mets of the north

[mappy]

Pool party at mapgirl's house! 

 

Come on over! you can all help me clean

[yoda]

Come on over! you can all help me clean

 

And party cancelled

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

GGEM ain't so hot, or maybe I should say that is often its problem

I think I'll wait until this thing gets in range of the RGEM before putting my faith in the mets of the north

For that reason its JB2's choice of a model...Lol...But yeah, it scores its coupes with temps sometimes but whatever. Point being Im in Essex MD...I expect maybe a slop coating at best.

[mappy]

And party cancelled

 

no, thats the thing... i need you to help me clean before the party (next weekend)

[clskinsfan]

I would prefer that the larger inner cities are hit with a greater impact. Makes life easier for me. Secs, Mecs, etc are the way to go. In this pattern Pa was screwed as well as the southern crowd. Harrisburg had a trace last event. 15 miles south and 15 miles north of the mason dixon only really were hit not once but twice. This has never happened to this extreme back to back.

 

Really not true. Some of us chose where we live for a reason.

[Fozz]

I would prefer that the larger inner cities are hit with a greater impact. Makes life easier for me. Secs, Mecs, etc are the way to go. In this pattern Pa was screwed as well as the southern crowd. Harrisburg had a trace last event. 15 miles south and 15 miles north of the mason dixon only really were hit not once but twice. This has never happened to this extreme back to back.

 

Not true..... look at 1993-94 (which I mentioned in the Dec pattern thread). It was a great winter for southern PA, and Lancaster ended up with 54" for the season (probably similar in York county). DCA only received 13"

[clskinsfan]

Alright I'm in now. GFS stays below freezing for the entire event:

 

131214/1200Z 48 09004KT 28.8F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
131214/1500Z 51 11004KT 29.9F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0
131214/1800Z 54 09004KT 31.0F SNOW 9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 10:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0
131214/2100Z 57 06004KT 31.2F SNOW 14:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.224 13:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0
131215/0000Z 60 09003KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.198 13:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.53 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
131215/0300Z 63 32003KT 31.7F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.012 13:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.54 0| 0|100
131215/0600Z 66 30003KT 21.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 13:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.54 0| 0| 0
131215/0900Z 69 28004KT 23.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 13:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.54 0| 0| 0

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

I see your point, but that is an extreme anamoly. I lived in canton back then and the only thing remarkable was the 94 icestorm. In general it is rare for my Current local to get 6 inches while bwi almost none and Harrisburg almost none. Year before in Canton we had 12 inches and sleet in superstorm 93, but that was widespread as was the icestorm.

[mitchnick]

Euro anyone?

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

Alright I'm in now. GFS stays below freezing for the entire event:

131214/1200Z 48 09004KT 28.8F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

131214/1500Z 51 11004KT 29.9F SNOW 11:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 100| 0| 0

131214/1800Z 54 09004KT 31.0F SNOW 9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063 10:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 100| 0| 0

131214/2100Z 57 06004KT 31.2F SNOW 14:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.224 13:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.33 100| 0| 0

131215/0000Z 60 09003KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.198 13:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.21|| 0.53 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

131215/0300Z 63 32003KT 31.7F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.012 13:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.54 0| 0|100

131215/0600Z 66 30003KT 21.1F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 13:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.54 0| 0| 0

131215/0900Z 69 28004KT 23.8F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 13:1| 4.3|| 0.00|| 0.22|| 0.54 0| 0| 0

Trends are positive and plenty cycles to improve.

[MDstorm]

Euro anyone?

Should be telling.....like telling us to find a new hobby. 

 

MDstorm

[Scraff]

Euro anyone?

 

I'm all in for the Euro.  Please keep us posted.

[ACFD FIREMAN]

Euro anyone?

Look similar to 0z EURO. 1-5" from I-95 westward. Less east, more west.

 

Per snowmaps:

 

Leesburg 3.5

 

OKV 7.8!

 

Frederick 4-5

 

MRB 6

 

Dulles 1.8

 

DCA 0.8

 

BWI 1.3

[mitchnick]

Look similar to 0z EURO. 1-5" from I-95 westward. Less east, more west.

k thx

[Bob Chill]

Surface sucks except for the usual jackpot zone. I'll take my glop and like it. 

[Solo2]

Well...I'm all in.

[mitchnick]

much rain after the snow?

[Bob Chill]

most of the area is above freezing by 1pm. That includes most of fred/loudon county. 

[mitchnick]

Look similar to 0z EURO. 1-5" from I-95 westward. Less east, more west.

 

Per snowmaps:

 

Leesburg 3.5

 

OKV 7.8!

 

Frederick 4-5

 

MRB 6

 

Dulles 1.8

 

DCA 0.8

 

BWI 1.3

darn shame that kind of difference from mby a short 30 minutes away       arghhhhhh!

[Bob Chill]

much rain after the snow?

 

not too much. Maybe .2 from what I can see. 

[87storms]

Surface sucks except for the usual jackpot zone. I'll take my glop and like it. 

 

this has been the issue for a few years now.  it's kind of annoying that i may have to snowchase again to see the legit stuff.

[Scraff]

I'll take 1-2 slop and still be able to hit the holiday parties Saturday night--which I guess is fine.  It's only Dec 12 and it's been a good week already, so there's that anyway. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

darn shame that kind of difference from mby a short 30 minutes away arghhhhhh!

We all know snow maps are useless. I'm just curious as to how the precip, surface and 850's compare with last night.

[Bob Chill]

Except for area like okv/mrb the snowmap is pretty flawed. Above freezing surface and light rates won't accum much at all for many closer in folks. 

[mitchnick]

not too much. Maybe .2 from what I can see. 

good, we may have a net gain in what's left otg after than before it started, or at least not lose any

[nflwxman]

The snowmaps (and even sfc temperatures) are very hard to decipher here in CHO frequently.  Since I'm right next to the Blue Ridge with elevation there is always a very strong gradient portrayed on the models due to poorer resolution on winter storms like this.  Sometimes it works out for the better, sometimes not.  The Piedmont/Coastal plain will usually verify closer to their modeled snow amount.

 

#foothillsproblems

[ACFD FIREMAN]

Except for area like okv/mrb the snowmap is pretty flawed. Above freezing surface and light rates won't accum much at all for many closer in folks. 

 

Yeah the maps don't match up at all comapred to the individual frames temp/rates. Still think that N&W of JYO do ok....

[Bob Chill]

We all know snow maps are useless. I'm just curious as to how the precip, surface and 850's compare with last night.

 

They start off similar but we lose them much quicker. Kinda toasty in the later panels. The biggest diff is balt area during the event.