eurojosh Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 In josh's defense, it's not a rainstorm but it's mostly a non-event for DC and closer burbs so far. Precip is light on the front end verbatim. Surface temps at or slightly above freezing, no heavy rates, and during day (weak sun angle is still sun angle) means by accum very suspect. Even a bit further out isn't all that exciting...yet. The extent and intensity of the initial band has been suspect run after run. Room to improve but expecting it doesn't have a lot of support. Obrigado.... I'm taking my lead from the CWG post-"storm" article - if you're inside or near the beltway, and the temps are marginal, and the rates aren't super, it's unlikely you're getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Obrigado.... I'm taking my lead from the CWG post-"storm" article - if you're inside or near the beltway, and the temps are marginal, and the rates aren't super, it's unlikely you're getting snow. Then say that instead of the whining imby post earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 You act like you don't think this is going to happen. No need to play that conservative game with us Bob. It is looking pretty mundane for DC, but things have gotten better. Fair enough but once the 6-9" superband talk starts I'm outta here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Fair enough but once the 6-9" superband talk starts I'm outta here. 18z happy hour today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Fair enough but once the 6-9" superband talk starts I'm outta here. Thats better. Give it time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 For anyone wondering what an active stj looks like... http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12®ion=we Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think ill get another 3+ inches Westminster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Thats better. Give it time though. I never said it wasn't going to happen. I just think was is going to happen isn't very exciting. Front end precip can surprise though. And we won't know intensity and expanse until tomorrow night and even then... The storm has a healthy moisture feed that goes all the way back to south of HI. But it's progressive and strung out so slow moving and hot and heavy can't happen. Everyone on this forum knows I'll track it like every other threat. Tempered expectations is a smart play imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 For anyone wondering what an active stj looks like... http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l12®ion=we Hurricane Josh hates that cut off but keep it parked there for split flow all winter long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I had punted on this. Now I'm not so sure. Temps are still marginal but I guess they were on Tuesday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 And of course the NAM is all kinds of juicy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I had punted on this. Now I'm not so sure. Temps are still marginal but I guess they were on Sunday as well.Temps were not marginal on Sunday. It was 27 degrees here during the snow. This looks more like 32-33 stuff. Unless it snows hard we won't accumulate much. That's a fact. Expectations should be around an inch for the majority of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Temps were not marginal on Sunday. It was 27 degrees here during the snow. This looks more like 32-33 stuff. Unless it snows hard we won't accumulate much. That's a fact. Expectations should be around an inch for the majority of us. Thanks meant Tuesday. Edited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Temps were not marginal on Sunday. It was 27 degrees here during the snow. This looks more like 32-33 stuff. Unless it snows hard we won't accumulate much. That's a fact. Expectations should be around an inch for the majority of us. Pretty much. Earlier onset would help. Especially us tropical guys down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 And of course the NAM is all kinds of juicy now. Hr 48 is looking juicy, we'll see how it translates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 We'll have to see if the nam develops the slp off the coast like the gfs or if it continues to tuck the low tight along the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM royally sucks with miller b's. But i'll hug it until the gfs comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I haven't seen anything but the 6z GFS. I remained unmoved. Remember, I live in DC You guys N and W, this looks good and I can understand the interest. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Primary weaker this run. Barely a closed circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I haven't seen anything but the 6z GFS. I remained unmoved. Remember, I live in DC You guys N and W, this looks good and I can understand the interest. Good luck. You're so in. Don't pretend otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 You're so in. Don't pretend otherwise. I'm actually not. You know I have no problems saying I'm in. I'm just not feeling excited at all by this one. Maybe I can go see my sis in HGR. Nah, then I'd have to pay for a car for the weekend. She ain't worth all that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I expect rain.. even for my area. Anything over nothing and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm actually not. You know I have no problems saying I'm in. I'm just not feeling excited at all by this one. Maybe I can go see my sis in HGR. Nah, then I'd have to pay for a car for the weekend. She ain't worth all that! It could easily be as good as the last events in our backyards. Stay positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM is better, a bit colder and wetter on the front end. Hr 60 brings in good precip but at that time 850's are in NE Baltimore. Phin is close to good things this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Trend is still wet(ter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM is better, a bit colder and wetter on the front end. Hr 60 brings in good precip but at that time 850's are in NE Baltimore. Phin is close to good things this run. Not trusting its temps this time, not with the Euro as cold as it is, and the GFS I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM has inklings of a mapgirl superband. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Trend is still wet(ter). And colder. NAM is another 4 inches out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 NAM has inklings of a mapgirl superband. aww, i knew you loved me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 And colder. NAM is another 4 inches out here. True, NAM is the warmest model on this one. Mapgirl could get the superband too if hr 60 is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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