RedSky Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 New NAM tracking the low over philly it always seems to do something wack last minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Evening Mt Holly update shows Walt Drag is not sleeping at the office. Discusses fluff factor and snow + and thinking of upping snow totals to around 10 inches north of I 80 up north. Come on...Drag was like wx religion back when he was up north. We are so lucky to have an amazing team at mt holly!! I have been reading Gigi forever....before we met him here.....and mike g was an instant star. For me, it's something special to be able to chat with them here and gain even more detailed thoughts and lessons. We have one heck of an experts desk here at AMWX, or whatever we call this place this month. Can't wait for my first storm walk tomorrow at the pocono cabin. Will be holding my scotch to the north east with a salute to wxfella. He too enjoys a good snow walk, his through the streets of boston. Got to love this place especially in the winter, when there is a winter!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 New NAM tracking the low over philly it always seems to do something wack last minute 2-7-13, 00Z Nam had me getting like 30". It was a good 75-100 miles more west than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Your not kidding, Ray. The low doesn't hug the coast. It hugs central NJ Oh geez. Please don't bring the Poconos into the mix!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 2-7-13, 00Z Nam had me getting like 30". It was a good 75-100 miles more west than reality. yeah i remember that run as it had me getting 15" with 2.7" ground truth next day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 New NAM considerably less snowy and warmer... only 2-3" at TTN. may need to move my house 100 miles NNE. Hoping the GFS comes in better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Oh geez. Please don't bring the Poconos into the mix!!!! It does change MPO to freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Does rhe nam have any support attm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Does rhe nam have any support attm? Not exactly. Up to now the GFS had been the warmest and least snowy. Will be very curious to see how the 0Z GFS looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Hey Paul it should be very interesting out this way. Personal hunch is that we get a bigger dump of sleet and ZR than what Sim says. Greg would not be surprised.....how quick if at all the warming comes in above is often poorly modeled. This is why professionals don't swing up and down with each model run. Reality as always will be something not quite as modeled. Either way this has been an amazing start to winter ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Good let it rain. (For this storm, but let it snow for the rest!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 very wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Oh geez. Please don't bring the Poconos into the mix!!!! It does change MPO to freezing rain. Hey ray Say it ain't so Lol Word is nam a toss out with poor initialization. Then again I might have had one too many Caolila Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'm not sweatin the NAM. By Saturday night, the low will be so wrapped up with cold from the north and west...it'll be producing it's own cold environment. The 540 line could only try so hard to be perfect. The cold air damming will be intense, still think most of northern and central NJ (interior) will be below freezing for most of the event. And either way, GFS should remain colder than NAM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 GFS didn't change much. About 3 inches of snow before changeover at TTN like the 12Z run had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Steve D at NYNJPA weather already taking the NAM to the woodshed based on verification problems (Notes the NAM has large problems very shortly into it's run) not taking it seriously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I posted this in the central pa thread but it really looks like someone is gonna get some crazy snowfall rates I would say between Carlisle and Allentown pa into nw jersey for a time tomorrow afternoon. The NAM and GFS both look interesting for anyone lucky enough to be just north of the mix line for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 yea, but both NAM and GFS are a tad warmer. (surprisingly) I just can't see how things get so warm tomorrow night. forgot to mention, everything is still caked in ice out here..including the powerlines. (last 2 storms) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Bacon, what's your elevation? You on top of the plateau? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Steve D at NYNJPA weather already taking the NAM to the woodshed based on verification problems (Notes the NAM has large problems very shortly into it's run) not taking it seriously I didn't read all his tweets closely but he seemed to be comparing the NAM 2M temps to current obs. Not the greatest verification method given the vagaries of inversions etc. That said, his forecast seems to agree with the NAM decently enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Bacon, what's your elevation? You on top of the plateau? yupper. 2100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 man everyone is jumping ship, rookies. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I'm not sweatin the NAM. By Saturday night, the low will be so wrapped up with cold from the north and west...it'll be producing it's own cold environment. The 540 line could only try so hard to be perfect. The cold air damming will be intense, still think most of northern and central NJ (interior) will be below freezing for most of the event. And either way, GFS should remain colder than NAM tonight. RGEM would reflect this line of thinking i believe both the NAM and GFS went too mild on the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 GFS ices MPO too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 RGEM would reflect this line of thinking i believe both the NAM and GFS went too mild on the 0z RGEM looks like a big hit for Carbon and Monroe Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 There is a ton of moisture heading this way. Current radar shows it stretching from Chicago to the GOM. Needless to say whoever remains frozen is going to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 GGEM at 9pm tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The biggest pain in this forecast is that the changeover line starts making real progress around I-95 near the same time that the heavy precip moves in. 2 hours could mean the difference between 2" and 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 could some on lay out the time frame in hours in what we are looking to see tomorrow. is the majority of the precip after 5 pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 One question though... Obviously looking at the GGEM above there is some heavy snow falling in EPA - where the R/S line sits. I know that once heavy snow falls, it tends to "cool the column." Would this be something that could really slow the mix line from racing into PA with these snow rates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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