RedSky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looking at snowmaps maybe not any colder if anything an even tighter gradient with snowfall than 0z. Little snowfall I95 to 6" far N&W 6-7" Lehigh Valley clipper still there for tuesday 1" south to 3" north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yeabrad Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Forecast for Wilmington, De? Always seem to be on that line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not much frozen for Wilmington maybe 1" from the ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looking at snowmaps maybe not any colder if anything an even tighter gradient with snowfall than 0z. Little snowfall I95 to 6" far N&W 6-7" Lehigh Valley clipper still there for tuesday 1" south to 3" north I guess you won't be using the Delco cabin this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I guess you won't be using the Delco cabin this weekend... Tughill plateau or bust can't go wrong there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Latest Wxsim with 12z data continues to forecast a major snowstorm for NW Chester County here's the breakdownLight Snow arrives by 8am with moderate snow toward noonSnow becoming Heavy during the afternoon with snow continuing till around midnight. 850 temps rise to 32.2 at around 1am by which time between 9 and 11 inches of snow has already fallen. 850 temps continue to rise topping out at 36.9 before dawn during which time ZR takes over with around 0.35" of ZR on top of the snow. Highest surface temps during the entire event reach 29.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Updated 70% rule with the SREF mean PHL 1.5, ABE 5.3, MSV 7.7, TTN 2.3, ILG 1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Updated 70% rule with the SREF mean PHL 1.5, ABE 5.3, MSV 7.7, TTN 2.3, ILG 1.0 That's a small improvement over earlier - I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 WWA now issued for Philadelphia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That's a nice little gain for the Snow totals area wide compared to their earlier map. Ice totals were bumped up decently too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That's a nice little gain for the Snow totals area wide compared to their earlier map. Ice totals were bumped up decently too. Snow good, ice bad. We will wait to see if it verifies, and everyone always talks down on it, but the NAM has been pretty good at the 60hour out mark even if it waivers a bit afterwards. For the past couple years, it seems like a mix of all of them at roughly 60 hours out has been the most accurate. Too much over and under compensation before and after. So I'm thinking 4" snow and a little ice after here in Horsham, then a possible short change to rain at the very end (minimal impact on anything do to it being for such a short period). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Storm warning now north of the advisories Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEchestercountydude Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Snow good, ice bad. We will wait to see if it verifies, and everyone always talks down on it, but the NAM has been pretty good at the 60hour out mark even if it waivers a bit afterwards. For the past couple years, it seems like a mix of all of them at roughly 60 hours out has been the most accurate. Too much over and under compensation before and after. So I'm thinking 4" snow and a little ice after here in Horsham, then a possible short change to rain at the very end (minimal impact on anything do to it being for such a short period). Getting a median average from all the models is always the smart move, and it sure looks like the 18z nam cam in pretty close to the euro and gfs so I think we have almost nailed the track down. Gun to head I would also go about 4, maybe a hair less here in Malvern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I've seen nothing that makes me change my earlier forecast, 3-6" is still looking good for TTN... though certainly could see it towards the higher end of that. More so than the last system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 as expected... colder and snowier on 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 as expected... colder and snowier on 18z GFS Define colder and snowier. I am at work without model access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 :-/I'm not trolling u, I'm looking for a little detail. Colder surface? 850s? Where? For who? How much more snow?If I were to have posted "colder and snowier" with nothing t o support it, they would have banned me :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 as expected... colder and snowier on 18z GFS How much colder and snowier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 as expected... colder and snowier on 18z GFS How much colder and snowier? -If anything the ny forum is saying it came in warmer at 850 with more ice and less snow. Different areas I realize but just passi ng it along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 skies cleared out here today with brilliant sunshine, temps up to 34. Still clear, temps dropping to 26 now. How long do the clouds hold off to allow for more radiational cooling? Forecast low is 20. Cold air seems to hold tough up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pohopoco Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looking at the latest or PM Low Plots from the WPC,to my untrained eye it looks a whole lot diff. than earlier...they had a dying primary or 1st low cutting into the lakes and the secondary forming coastal,now more of a classic look,along the Gulf up the Coast and strengthening...(If someone could post that map plot I'd be much obliged,I'm sorta outta the tech loop,so to speak)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looking forward to my 2" follow by the wet (let) down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Cold air draining in nicely from the HP to the north - 23.4 here in NW Chesco. Setting the table for a decent one around here I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Latest Wxsim with 18z data still has 1.17" of liquid equivalent with actually another 1 hour with 850's and BL below 0c.....still looks to show near double digit snowfall and then ice for NW Chester County - also surface temps around 1 degree F colder than 12z for duration of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Hey Paul it should be very interesting out this way. Personal hunch is that we get a bigger dump of sleet and ZR than what Sim says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Evening Mt Holly update shows Walt Drag is not sleeping at the office. Discusses fluff factor and snow + and thinking of upping snow totals to around 10 inches north of I 80 up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 New NAM considerably less snowy and warmer... only 2-3" at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Your not kidding, Ray. The low doesn't hug the coast. It hugs central NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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