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12/14-12/15 Winter Storm


LVblizzard

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Latest Wxsim with 12z data continues to forecast a major snowstorm for NW Chester County here's the breakdown
Light Snow arrives by 8am with moderate snow toward noon
Snow becoming Heavy during the afternoon with snow continuing till around midnight. 850 temps rise to 32.2 at around 1am by which time between 9 and 11 inches of snow has already fallen. 850 temps continue to rise topping out at 36.9 before dawn during which time ZR takes over with around 0.35" of ZR on top of the snow. Highest surface temps during the entire event reach 29.4

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That's a nice little gain for the Snow totals area wide compared to their earlier map. Ice totals were bumped up decently too.

 

Snow good, ice bad.

 

We will wait to see if it verifies, and everyone always talks down on it, but the NAM has been pretty good at the 60hour out mark even if it waivers a bit afterwards.  For the past couple years, it seems like a mix of all of them at roughly 60 hours out has been the most accurate.  Too much over and under compensation before and after.

 

So I'm thinking 4" snow and a little ice after here in Horsham, then a possible short change to rain at the very end (minimal impact on anything do to it being for such a short period). 

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Snow good, ice bad.

 

We will wait to see if it verifies, and everyone always talks down on it, but the NAM has been pretty good at the 60hour out mark even if it waivers a bit afterwards.  For the past couple years, it seems like a mix of all of them at roughly 60 hours out has been the most accurate.  Too much over and under compensation before and after.

 

So I'm thinking 4" snow and a little ice after here in Horsham, then a possible short change to rain at the very end (minimal impact on anything do to it being for such a short period). 

Getting a median average from all the models is always the smart move, and it sure looks like the 18z nam cam in pretty close to the euro and gfs so I think we have almost nailed the track down. Gun to head I would also go about 4, maybe a hair less here in Malvern.

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Looking at the latest or PM Low Plots from the WPC,to my untrained eye it looks a whole lot diff. than earlier...they had a dying primary or 1st low cutting into the lakes and the secondary forming coastal,now more of a classic look,along the Gulf up the Coast and strengthening...(If someone could post that map plot I'd be much obliged,I'm sorta outta the tech loop,so to speak)... 

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Latest Wxsim with 18z data still has 1.17" of liquid equivalent with actually another 1 hour with 850's and BL below 0c.....still looks to show near double digit snowfall and then ice for NW Chester County - also surface temps around 1 degree F colder than 12z for duration of precip

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