12/14-12/15 Winter Storm

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

good post, mookie.

 

Met tag isn't required to provide expert analysis. 

[ChescoWx]

Thank you gentlemen who feel I was wishcasting. Perhaps some rationale.

 

The models are only as good as the physics they are programmed with. They are getting better, but the differences model to model, create model wars of interpretation, which seasoned Mets "blend", to form an end result. But so many myriad weather issues have to be accounted for from CAD to the mesoscale dynamics, that makes forecasting an art.

 

I may not be a meteorologist, but I just didn't throw numbers out there. I have seen this before, this exact set-up, and Miller "B" or not, the secondary formed slightly further South, deepened rapidly, and took a near perfect position along the benchmark. I still remember Eliot Abrams conceding the freezing line would never progress from Vineland, some 40 miles East of Philly.

 

I was going to wait for the 12Z NAM, but it reinforces what I believe will play out.

 

One last point....I'm a Philly guy, but moved to NYC for 14 years. I learned their meteorological nightmares, proximity to the moderating Ocean, but that northward shift and living slightly inland, like Forest Hills, meant snow on borderline cases. Just like doctors, with whom I have a consulting business, I can understand the hesitation of a professional Met, but which is worse, an HONEST belief that having seen this before, I believe 6-12 " is possible, not probable, but POSSIBLE. Stranger things have happened weather-wise before. Or NOAA issuing a forecast with a high of 34, stating in the caption, not snow/rain, but rain or snow. THAT is a dartboard, a guess from a professional, who have immunity. By the way, on the "old" forum I posted on NYC metro, and won a steak dinner at Peter Luger for a storm that went retrograde. It was snowing two days in NYC, while raining and sleeting in Albany, a snow Capital.!! If that doesn't show how fickle a storm is, a change of 20-25 miles is a difference maker, CAD is as well, deformation banding, than you can see why I have defended my best educated ( a JD degree in law...but with Meteorology and Astrophysics as hobbies )belief. 

 

In any event, we will know tomorrow.

 

P.S. I never gloat, and certainly know I'm here to learn more from you, than vice versa, but I'm honest to a fault. I promise I will own up to my errors, once this storm goes post mortem.

 

One last thought.... How many times have pro-Mets busted on their high-end snow totals, then nothing happens. Does everyone jump each other afterwards for the mistake? Amateur or Pro, at least if you support an idea, or like my friend JB, have a firm belief in analogs and model bias, as well as patterns, like my first girlfriend said, "you never know".

 

Hope everyone gets the weather they want most.

 

Cheers!

Thanks and great to have you posting on this site!

Good luck!

Paul

[Mitchell Gaines]

For those riding the NAM all the way it the snowiest of any 09Z SREF member at PHL. 

[mookiemike]

Thank you Paul and "Bacon Strips". The bottom line is, as snow lovers, we are all in this together, respecting everyone's ability, and informed opinions. Half the fun of a sleigh ride is that walk UP the hill, for the fleeting moments of rushing on blades or a board down the hill ( ski resorts can make snow ).

 

In other words, this time of lively discussion, most recent runs, the smaller models, regional models, the faster or slower Primary s/w and placement of the secondary, as well as all the timing issues, is truly "THREADING A NEEDLE". But it sure is worthwhile , especially if the end result is what you hoped for. Forecasting, in a word, is "FUN".

 

Cheers!!

 

Michael

[hazwoper]

mookiemike, I respect your call, BUT this system has been modeled quite well with SE winds warming the upper levels on all models.  No model supports your call, not one.  My guess is that JB doesn't support your call either.

 

Here is the sounding for PHL at 42 hrs on the NAM.  You say it reinforces your thoughts?  How does an 850 temp of 43 degree reinforce your thoughts of 6-12" at PHL?

[NEchestercountydude]

Hell of a gradient on RGEM here in the nw burbs. A difference of just 15 miles from south to north looks like it means getting 2-4 and 4-8 inches. It's just one run of one model but still wow.

[Big Jims Videos]

It's the classic channel 6 blizzard at the king of Prussia tolls and driving rainstorm in center city look.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

omg @ 12z GFS....this is going to be soooo close for northern and central NJ. 

 

hour by hour call.. 

 

heavy snow / freezing rain.

[Ralph Wiggum]

It's the classic channel 6 blizzard at the king of Prussia tolls and driving rainstorm in center city look.

I think eventually even kop flips to a mix of sleet/fzra and Maybe even plain old rain for a period tomorrow evening. Surface looks to remain close to freezing thru majority of event so gonna be close.

[hazwoper]

GFS is toasty

[RedSky]

One positive is the GFS stopped it's nw trend

 

my thinking is 2-4" SE halfs of bucks, montco and chester counties with 4-6" northern halfs. Change to plain rain lower portions second half of storm with varying degrees of mix northern portions. City 1-3"

[Ralph Wiggum]

GFS is toasty

Very. Of course it comes in as I'm typing the above post.

[Rib]

Am I the only one who thinks the front end snow is being underdone once again? I think the NAM is too extreme but there is extensive snow cover and I think the snow before the change will end up being underdone. I disagree with not even having a WWA for PHL and DEL counties.

[RedSky]

WAA snow burst is always a possible surprise one only has to look at last weekend for that.

[Rib]

WAA snow burst is always a possible surprise one only has to look at last weekend for that.

That's what I'm thinking. WAA snow is usually underdone. That's why I disagree with the current projected scenario.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Isn't the best waa and lift happening to our north though? Not sure we'll see a surprise like last weekend when the best lift was to our south. Hope you're onto something tho Rob.

[mookiemike]

mookiemike, I respect your call, BUT this system has been modeled quite well with SE winds warming the upper levels on all models.  No model supports your call, not one.  My guess is that JB doesn't support your call either.

 

Here is the sounding for PHL at 42 hrs on the NAM.  You say it reinforces your thoughts?  How does an 850 temp of 43 degree reinforce your thoughts of 6-12" at PHL?

 

I said what I did before the sounding was done. It appears that the WAA has too much strength, when we want the northern feature to dig and go. Karma proves it's accuracy again, WAA brought Philly perfect dynamics, even atmospheric cooling as 34 dropped to 27 in the Sunday storm. Different storm, different boundary results.

 

However, there is still validity in "you never know". I thought the Eagles were toast after almost 3 quarters of a game. Then they exploded. Implausible, improbable, but every strange quirk happened, and the Eagles won.

 

That proves nothing to refute the sounding, though, and perhaps my haste, makes waste. I'm not here to argue ( I did that professionally, now in business ), and I always own up to my mistakes. Thanks for the sounding, those spaghetti lines reminding me of dinner.

[Rib]

I think the potential for IP is way underdone. This could be an all time NWS bust for IP.

[Rib]

Isn't the best waa and lift happening to our north though? Not sure we'll see a surprise like last weekend when the best lift was to our south. Hope you're onto something tho Rob.

Hey, I have to work tomorrow evening and hope it does go to rain before I leave at 9pm, but before then, I could see a narrow band of +SN somewhere unexpected before the changeover.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Isn't the best waa and lift happening to our north though? Not sure we'll see a surprise like last weekend when the best lift was to our south. Hope you're onto something tho Rob.

Hey, I have to work tomorrow evening and hope it does go to rain before I leave at 9pm, but before then, I could see a narrow band of +SN somewhere unexpected before the changeover.

I agree that someone in se pa is going to see a period of heavy snow before any changeover. This is likely in response to the dynamics associated with the developing coastal.

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

GFS is toasty

 

 

GFS isn't toasty.  It WILL trend colder tonight.    Plus, a ton of that is freezing rain.

 

That high to the north is packing some SERIOUS cold, and models are still underdoing it. 

 

Expect this to be mostly in the frozen form for most of Northern and interior Central NJ. 

[RedSky]

I think the potential for IP is way underdone. This could be an all time NWS bust for IP.

 

you are the sleet nostradamus

 

these coast huggers with no -NAO and 50/50 to lock in the cold can really flood the upper levels of the coastal plain with warmth fast i certainly hope not

[Ralph Wiggum]

GFS is toasty

 

 

GFS isn't toasty.  It WILL trend colder tonight.    Plus, a ton of that is freezing rain.

 

That high to the north is packing some SERIOUS cold, and models are still underdoing it. 

 

Expect this to be mostly in the frozen form for most of Northern and interior Central NJ. 

Surface warms to mid and upper 30s for a good chunk of se pa. What makes you say with certainty that the gfs will trend colder? Not calling you out, just curious if I am overlooking something obvious.

[Mitchell Gaines]

09Z SREF mean 70% forecast method  PNE 1.5, TTN 2.0, ILG .7, ABE 4.2, AVP 4.8 

[Rib]

Hmm, I need a sounding for 2Z Sunday aka 9pm Saturday night. I hope it's just rain by then.

[Animal]

Good afternoon,

 

Models look outstanding for my section of NJ.

Final guess is 10-14 of snow with some sleet at some point.

 

GFS has historically been a wee bit warm to in these events

 

Regards,

 

 

Matt

[Maximum lawman]

Well, last Friday I believe, GFS had forecast lows for Tues-Thurs of 14, 12 and 9. Verified at 28, 21 and 23. I continue to hope I am wrong, but...

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

Ralph , It's almost always had a slightly warmer bias with big winter storms.  Then again, sometimes it's beaten NAM on temps. 

 

But I TRULY cannot see temps warming up above freezing with such an airmass moving in... Southern NJ = Yes.    But not for interior northern and central. 

 

Central NJ might just have freezing rain / sleet most of the event.

 

I'm almost positive tonight's runs will be even colder.  How many times have we seen it over the years...with such a cold strong high to the north overperforming?  Even with last week's SNJ dumping... many are still scratching their heads....as SNJ was just suppose to get an inch...and ended up with 11.     They couldn't even get that forecast right 6 hours before the event.

 

Not bashing...as almost nobody predicted it anyway. 

 

Even if the models don't show it tonight, still expect it tomorrow.  The models didn't show SNJ getting close to a foot of snow.... 6 hours before the event either.

 

Stronger than expected Highs also cut down on QPF.  I wouldn't expect more than an 1.00 QPF anywhere in our area....with this setup.

[RedSky]

12z ECM has confirmed the NW trend is over, a touch colder than 0z

[Animal]

Ralph , It's almost always had a slightly warmer bias with big winter storms.  Then again, sometimes it's beaten NAM on temps. 

 

But I TRULY cannot see temps warming up above freezing with such an airmass moving in... Southern NJ = Yes.    But not for interior northern and central. 

 

Central NJ might just have freezing rain / sleet most of the event.

 

I'm almost positive tonight's runs will be even colder.  How many times have we seen it over the years...with such a cold strong high to the north overperforming?  Even with last week's SNJ dumping... many are still scratching their heads....as SNJ was just suppose to get an inch...and ended up with 11.     They couldn't even get that forecast right 6 hours before the event.

 

Not bashing...as almost nobody predicted it anyway. 

 

Even if the models don't show it tonight, still expect it tomorrow.  The models didn't show SNJ getting close to a foot of snow.... 6 hours before the event either.

 

Stronger than expected Highs also cut down on QPF.  I wouldn't expect more than an 1.00 QPF anywhere in our area....with this setup.

 

 

Decent snow ratios are expected. May get 0.15 and a QPF hit of around 0.70 for snow = 10.5 inches of snow.

Very reasonable. If banding sets up, forget about it. 14 inches is possible.