famartin Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 EC has about 4" at TTN before change over...I'm still comfortable with 3-6" for the TTN area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 ECM is like the GFS but slightly colder. Pushes the ice line to allentown at 54hrs but precip is just about done that hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 How is at toward thv and mdt? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 EC has about 4" at TTN before change over... I'm still comfortable with 3-6" for the TTN area. I'm guessing similar to 12Z run with 2 - 3" for Western Monmouth and less further east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 How is at toward thv and mdt? Thanks! 4 or 5 inches of snow before brief ice. Probably some lingering freezing drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm guessing similar to 12Z run with 2 - 3" for Western Monmouth and less further east? Yeah pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 EC has about 4" at TTN before change over... I'm still comfortable with 3-6" for the TTN area. Sorry to bother you Ray, but what does it look like for Baltimore?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Sorry to bother you Ray, but what does it look like for Baltimore?. Less than an inch down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Less than an inch down there. Thanks, appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Again like 12z sharp gradient on the snowmaps for sepa 3-6" from I95 to far N&W burbs and 6-7" lehigh valley. Pretty much no snow 10 miles east of I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 WxBell is a few inches higher and is too expansive with the higher totals towards the southeast, IMHO. At least compared to the Barker map. This would totally fit JB's style of looking at pattern recognition. I don't have membership there, but I'm sure he is opining on some analog storm/pattern, from knowledge of his past scenarios/forecasts. I admit that I watch the models, as it says on some gambling receipt, "for entertainment purposes only." Unless we get collective amnesia here, only one model nailed the two storms here in Philly, and they were 24 hour short-range models. Every other model busted, yet the model dependency continues. I side with JB on patterns. They are like currents in the ocean. Weather loves to follow patterns, until some major shakeup in the jet. This does look like the classic days when I lived in Yardley and saw the effect of driving 20 miles NE from CC, but the freezing line , when rain was projected in the city never got past Vineland, on what a typical North/West temperature variance modeled. I'm going out on a limb and saying even with precipitation problems, that secondary will wind things up a bit earlier, and dump 6-12" on Philly. Dynamics and pattern are the key players. Better to take a chance and follow years of weather sense, than be a prisoner of a busted model. Either way, and no matter what "camp" you find yourself, this lively discussion, and the chance for some snow, has everyone watching. I hope each who dreams of snow, gets all that they hope for, as I think this storm will be a crowd pleaser. This late Fall has already been noteworthy. Cheers to all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yeabrad Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Can anyone help me with what Wilmington Delaware can expect? thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I guess Mount Holly wanted to see the ECM hold serve before issuing Berks anything. Winter Storm Watch, potential for 5-9". Could be our biggest event since October 2011... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Can anyone help me with what Wilmington Delaware can expect? thank you Right now, conservatively 2 to 3, with more possible. If you like snow, expect 2 and be cautiously optimistic for more. Pretty exciting trend, but still dicey along or near 95, from everything I've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 6z nam still keeps the surface below freezing n and w of i95. My gut says a general 2-5" of snow right near the city with the lower total s and e and higher n and w before any changeover to sleet, fzra, or plain rain. These warming trends are certainly disconcerting the past 2 model suites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Mookiemike, that call is what we call a "wish cast". Sorry, but calling for 6-12" in Philly for this system makes no "weather sense" whatsoever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Latest Wxsim forecast for NW Chester County PA with the 6z models incorporated is going for snow heavy at time most of Saturday afternoon and evening with between 8 to 10" of snow accumulating before mixing with IP and ZR by around 1230am early Sunday morning. With about 0.25" of ZR on top. Temps rise to no higher than 28.7 during the entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Mookiemike, that call is what we call a "wish cast". Sorry, but calling for 6-12" in Philly for this system makes no "weather sense" whatsoeverCertainly is a wish call, there is great bust potential with this event though somewhere along the PA turnpike between MM 300 and the Jersey bridge. Hope everyone gets dumped on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Oh I agree but certainly not 6 to 12 in Philly proper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hate to be a wet blanket, but I'm not buying into this, at least for areas close to the city. Miller B's historically are tough around I-95 at 40N. Here, we need the primary to be weak, quick transfer to a more southerly secondary that is strong enough for precip rates to be high enough to overcome BL issues, but not so strong that winds are primarily easterly, and that it stays just far enough off-shore to keep the winds primarily northerly. Got all that? Plus, we need the cold air mass to not retreat too quickly. Temps are already close to progged highs and the winds have had a southerly component all night. An awful lot has to go right for this to work out, and we seem to be off to a bit of a poor start, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hate to be a wet blanket, but I'm not buying into this, at least for areas close to the city. Miller B's historically are tough around I-95 at 40N. Here, we need the primary to be weak, quick transfer to a more southerly secondary that is strong enough for precip rates to be high enough to overcome BL issues, but not so strong that winds are primarily easterly, and that it stays just far enough off-shore to keep the winds primarily northerly. Got all that? Plus, we need the cold air mass to not retreat too quickly. Temps are already close to progged highs and the winds have had a southerly component all night. An awful lot has to go right for this to work out, and we seem to be off to a bit of a poor start, Agree 100% right here! I will stick with climo with setups like this and this is example number one for why a -NAO is much preferred for the big cities of the mid-atlantic to get big snows! This is an interior mid-atlantic moderate snowmaker (4-8) and the potential for the northeast to get some of the heaviest accums out of this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12z nam continues to use i95 as the frozen vs rain line. Doesnt look to get above freezing at the surface n and w of there. Its holding firm! Edit: has some seriously heavy precip moving in tomorrow evening. More coming after this as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Here's the 36 hr accum qpf...coukd be a significant icing event n and w of say k.o.p. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hate to be a wet blanket, but I'm not buying into this, at least for areas close to the city. Miller B's historically are tough around I-95 at 40N. Here, we need the primary to be weak, quick transfer to a more southerly secondary that is strong enough for precip rates to be high enough to overcome BL issues, but not so strong that winds are primarily easterly, and that it stays just far enough off-shore to keep the winds primarily northerly. Got all that? Plus, we need the cold air mass to not retreat too quickly. Temps are already close to progged highs and the winds have had a southerly component all night. An awful lot has to go right for this to work out, and we seem to be off to a bit of a poor start, Yup, a stronger primary has been modeled over the past few runs, that means more WAA streaming in Saturday afternoon and night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Here's the 36 hr accum qpf...coukd be a significant icing event n and w of say k.o.p. Even i'll admit, it was a bit clown map'ish this run. Doubtful anybody gets over 1.5 QPF without this system being fully wrappin up....and with only mediocre 500 vort support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Here's the 36 hr accum qpf...coukd be a significant icing event n and w of say k.o.p. Even i'll admit, it was a bit clown map'ish this run. Doubtful anybody gets over 1.5 QPF without this system being fully wrappin up....and with only mediocre 500 vort support. Agreed....nam likely playing one of it's qpf tricks on us again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Agreed....nam likely playing one of it's qpf tricks on us again.I noticed that also, maybe some convective feedback issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Thank you gentlemen who feel I was wishcasting. Perhaps some rationale. The models are only as good as the physics they are programmed with. They are getting better, but the differences model to model, create model wars of interpretation, which seasoned Mets "blend", to form an end result. But so many myriad weather issues have to be accounted for from CAD to the mesoscale dynamics, that makes forecasting an art. I may not be a meteorologist, but I just didn't throw numbers out there. I have seen this before, this exact set-up, and Miller "B" or not, the secondary formed slightly further South, deepened rapidly, and took a near perfect position along the benchmark. I still remember Eliot Abrams conceding the freezing line would never progress from Vineland, some 40 miles East of Philly. I was going to wait for the 12Z NAM, but it reinforces what I believe will play out. One last point....I'm a Philly guy, but moved to NYC for 14 years. I learned their meteorological nightmares, proximity to the moderating Ocean, but that northward shift and living slightly inland, like Forest Hills, meant snow on borderline cases. Just like doctors, with whom I have a consulting business, I can understand the hesitation of a professional Met, but which is worse, an HONEST belief that having seen this before, I believe 6-12 " is possible, not probable, but POSSIBLE. Stranger things have happened weather-wise before. Or NOAA issuing a forecast with a high of 34, stating in the caption, not snow/rain, but rain or snow. THAT is a dartboard, a guess from a professional, who have immunity. By the way, on the "old" forum I posted on NYC metro, and won a steak dinner at Peter Luger for a storm that went retrograde. It was snowing two days in NYC, while raining and sleeting in Albany, a snow Capital.!! If that doesn't show how fickle a storm is, a change of 20-25 miles is a difference maker, CAD is as well, deformation banding, than you can see why I have defended my best educated ( a JD degree in law...but with Meteorology and Astrophysics as hobbies )belief. In any event, we will know tomorrow. P.S. I never gloat, and certainly know I'm here to learn more from you, than vice versa, but I'm honest to a fault. I promise I will own up to my errors, once this storm goes post mortem. One last thought.... How many times have pro-Mets busted on their high-end snow totals, then nothing happens. Does everyone jump each other afterwards for the mistake? Amateur or Pro, at least if you support an idea, or like my friend JB, have a firm belief in analogs and model bias, as well as patterns, like my first girlfriend said, "you never know". Hope everyone gets the weather they want most. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Here's my thinking for accumulations: Philly area: 2-4" then sleet and rain NW burbs: 3-6" then sleet and freezing rain, plain rain unlikely Lehigh Valley: 4-8" then sleet and freezing rain Poconos: 6-10" ending as a bit of sleet or freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.