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12/14-12/15 Winter Storm

LVblizzard

By LVblizzard,
in Philadelphia Region

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mookiemike

mookiemike

Posted
Posted

WxBell is a few inches higher and is too expansive with the higher totals towards the southeast, IMHO.  At least compared to the Barker map.

 

 

This would totally fit JB's style of looking at pattern recognition. I don't have membership there, but I'm sure he is opining on some analog storm/pattern, from knowledge of his past scenarios/forecasts.

 

I admit that I watch the models, as it says on some gambling receipt, "for entertainment purposes only."

 

Unless we get collective amnesia here, only one model nailed the two storms here in Philly, and they were 24 hour short-range models. Every other model busted, yet the model dependency continues.

 

I side with JB on patterns. They are like currents in the ocean. Weather loves to follow patterns, until some major shakeup in the jet.

 

This does look like the classic days when I lived in Yardley and saw the effect of driving 20 miles NE from CC, but the freezing line , when rain was projected in the city never got past Vineland, on what a typical North/West temperature variance modeled.

 

I'm going out on a limb and saying even with precipitation problems, that secondary will wind things up a bit earlier, and dump 6-12" on Philly. Dynamics and pattern are the key players.

 

Better to take a chance and follow years of weather sense, than be a prisoner of a busted model.

 

Either way, and no matter what "camp" you find yourself, this lively discussion, and the chance for some snow, has everyone watching. I hope each who dreams of snow, gets all that they hope for, as I think this storm will be a crowd pleaser. This late Fall has already been noteworthy.

 

Cheers to all.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

Latest Wxsim forecast for NW Chester County PA with the 6z models incorporated is going for snow heavy at time most of Saturday afternoon and evening with between 8 to 10" of snow accumulating before mixing with IP and ZR by around 1230am early Sunday morning. With about 0.25" of ZR on top. Temps rise to no higher than 28.7 during the entire event

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Big Jims Videos

Big Jims Videos

Posted
Posted

Mookiemike, that call is what we call a "wish cast". Sorry, but calling for 6-12" in Philly for this system makes no "weather sense" whatsoever

Certainly is a wish call, there is great bust potential with this event though somewhere along the PA turnpike between MM 300 and the Jersey bridge. Hope everyone gets dumped on.
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Maximum lawman

Maximum lawman

Posted
Posted

Hate to be a wet blanket, but I'm not buying into this, at least for areas close to the city. Miller B's historically are tough around I-95 at 40N. Here, we need the primary to be weak, quick transfer to a more southerly secondary that is strong enough for precip rates to be high enough to overcome BL issues, but not so strong that winds are primarily easterly, and that it stays just far enough off-shore to keep the winds primarily northerly. Got all that? Plus, we need the cold air mass to not retreat too quickly. Temps are already close to progged highs and the winds have had a southerly component all night. An awful lot has to go right for this to work out, and we seem to be off to a bit of a poor start,

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baseball0618

baseball0618

Posted
Posted

Hate to be a wet blanket, but I'm not buying into this, at least for areas close to the city. Miller B's historically are tough around I-95 at 40N. Here, we need the primary to be weak, quick transfer to a more southerly secondary that is strong enough for precip rates to be high enough to overcome BL issues, but not so strong that winds are primarily easterly, and that it stays just far enough off-shore to keep the winds primarily northerly. Got all that? Plus, we need the cold air mass to not retreat too quickly. Temps are already close to progged highs and the winds have had a southerly component all night. An awful lot has to go right for this to work out, and we seem to be off to a bit of a poor start,

Agree 100% right here!  I will stick with climo with setups like this and this is example number one for why a -NAO is much preferred for the big cities of the mid-atlantic to get big snows! This is an interior mid-atlantic moderate snowmaker (4-8) and the potential for the northeast to get some of the heaviest accums out of this one.

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Mitchell Gaines

Mitchell Gaines

Posted
Posted

Hate to be a wet blanket, but I'm not buying into this, at least for areas close to the city. Miller B's historically are tough around I-95 at 40N. Here, we need the primary to be weak, quick transfer to a more southerly secondary that is strong enough for precip rates to be high enough to overcome BL issues, but not so strong that winds are primarily easterly, and that it stays just far enough off-shore to keep the winds primarily northerly. Got all that? Plus, we need the cold air mass to not retreat too quickly. Temps are already close to progged highs and the winds have had a southerly component all night. An awful lot has to go right for this to work out, and we seem to be off to a bit of a poor start,

Yup, a stronger primary has been modeled over the past few runs, that means more WAA streaming in Saturday afternoon and night. 

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

Here's the 36 hr accum qpf...coukd be a significant icing event n and w of say k.o.p.

 

 

 

Even i'll admit, it was a bit clown map'ish this run.  

 

Doubtful anybody gets over 1.5 QPF without this system being fully wrappin up....and with only mediocre 500 vort support. 

Agreed....nam likely playing one of it's qpf tricks on us again.

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mookiemike

mookiemike

Posted
Posted

Thank you gentlemen who feel I was wishcasting. Perhaps some rationale.

 

The models are only as good as the physics they are programmed with. They are getting better, but the differences model to model, create model wars of interpretation, which seasoned Mets "blend", to form an end result. But so many myriad weather issues have to be accounted for from CAD to the mesoscale dynamics, that makes forecasting an art.

 

I may not be a meteorologist, but I just didn't throw numbers out there. I have seen this before, this exact set-up, and Miller "B" or not, the secondary formed slightly further South, deepened rapidly, and took a near perfect position along the benchmark. I still remember Eliot Abrams conceding the freezing line would never progress from Vineland, some 40 miles East of Philly.

 

I was going to wait for the 12Z NAM, but it reinforces what I believe will play out.

 

One last point....I'm a Philly guy, but moved to NYC for 14 years. I learned their meteorological nightmares, proximity to the moderating Ocean, but that northward shift and living slightly inland, like Forest Hills, meant snow on borderline cases. Just like doctors, with whom I have a consulting business, I can understand the hesitation of a professional Met, but which is worse, an HONEST belief that having seen this before, I believe 6-12 " is possible, not probable, but POSSIBLE. Stranger things have happened weather-wise before. Or NOAA issuing a forecast with a high of 34, stating in the caption, not snow/rain, but rain or snow. THAT is a dartboard, a guess from a professional, who have immunity. By the way, on the "old" forum I posted on NYC metro, and won a steak dinner at Peter Luger for a storm that went retrograde. It was snowing two days in NYC, while raining and sleeting in Albany, a snow Capital.!! If that doesn't show how fickle a storm is, a change of 20-25 miles is a difference maker, CAD is as well, deformation banding, than you can see why I have defended my best educated ( a JD degree in law...but with Meteorology and Astrophysics as hobbies )belief. 

 

In any event, we will know tomorrow.

 

P.S. I never gloat, and certainly know I'm here to learn more from you, than vice versa, but I'm honest to a fault. I promise I will own up to my errors, once this storm goes post mortem.

 

One last thought.... How many times have pro-Mets busted on their high-end snow totals, then nothing happens. Does everyone jump each other afterwards for the mistake? Amateur or Pro, at least if you support an idea, or like my friend JB, have a firm belief in analogs and model bias, as well as patterns, like my first girlfriend said, "you never know".

 

Hope everyone gets the weather they want most.

 

Cheers!

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