Chief83 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yes - My mistake. I changed it to .05 ice.- Big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Big difference in cutoff of snow amounts around I-95 from the NAM vs the GFS. GFS shows much more for NW, while the NAM has a much more gradual cutoff. It's gonna be a painful storm for some folks on the fall line if the GFS verifies verbatim. Will be interested too see if one model folds during the 0z runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 that snow map is like the old days, more north less south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 that said what Mt Holly is saying in the Western Chester County Zone is a little different.....maybe the map is not updated?? .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SATURDAY...SNOW. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN. SNOW AND SLEET IN THE EVENING...THEN FREEZING RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. The small area of 4-6 inches is most likely what is triggering that wording. Maybe a typo on the "heavy snow accumulation" for Upper Bucks. I don't see it mentioned in the other zones, even in the LV and Poconos. The small area of 6-8 inches in far upper Bucks is mostly likely what is causing that wording. No typo as the formatter automatically puts in that wording based on the forecast amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Mike, please bring that 6-8" a tad SW, thanks buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Mike, please bring that 6-8" a tad SW, thanks buddy I will see what I can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I see they are showing the Reading Prong of eastern Berks County some love! Although in this case I'm not seeing how a little elevation is going to help much in this storm......other than squeezing out a little more precipitation. (if ZR mixes in that's happening well above our little 900-1250 foot hills) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 And 0z is rolling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 And 0z is rolling.... Keep these useless posts out of here, please. I'm totally kidding. Sadly, you just increased the post count in this thread by an appreciable percentage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Any concern we get screwed over by the transfer to the coast? Heard from a few that some models were showing that? Can't say I really saw it from the globals though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Any concern we get screwed over by the transfer to the coast? Heard from a few that some models were showing that? Can't say I really saw it from the globals though.Screw the models, it's a Miller B. Unless there's a strong WAA front end dump, screwage is inherently climo for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Any concern we get screwed over by the transfer to the coast? Heard from a few that some models were showing that? Can't say I really saw it from the globals though. Coastal transfer is always a concern for this region. That said, areas further to the southwest (like Lancaster) tend to do better with the initial WAA snows. Seems that up here in the Lehigh Valley, we are frequently victimized by the shutoff of front-end precip and fringed by the coastal low. Hoping that's not the case here, so I'm rooting for a not-too-aggressive transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 not really weather related, but... Fox in the backyard Sure it is - he's walking in the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Holy NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 The NAM is likely overdoing the QPF as usual, but wow, it hammers NE PA and NW NJ with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Lol, only in dreams, NAM is like a foot in the city, give me a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Lol, only in dreams, NAM is like a foot in the city, give me a break. No its not. More like 6 inches. Its close to changing over at 0Z and rain no later than 3Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 why does it look like mostly rain se of lehigh valley to me? NAM having its mad cap run right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 why does it look like mostly rain se of lehigh valley to me? I don't know, you'd have to show me what you are looking at. Certainly here, its snow until about 3Z (hour 51) at TTN: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KTTN.txt Which would be about 8" on a 10:1 ratio. And not counting the NAM's often excessive wet-ness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Ray I think the NAM is seeing the heavy rates over Philly and keeping it colder or something. Maybe why the 850s are colder to the west of the city than they are in the city at 51 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 that snow map is like the old days, more north less south Yup...definitely a low expectation scenario down here. It's been a good week though, and it's your turn. And... you never know...especially this winter to date and with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Go home NAM, you're drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Go home NAM, you're drunk More like go home Weatherbell maps, you're drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Ray I think the NAM is seeing the heavy rates over Philly and keeping it colder or something. Maybe why the 850s are colder to the west of the city than they are in the city at 51 hours. That probably has more to do with 850 winds being southeasterly, though the precip rates could have something to do with it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I don't know, you'd have to show me what you are looking at. Certainly here, its snow until about 3Z (hour 51) at TTN: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KTTN.txt Which would be about 8" on a 10:1 ratio. And not counting the NAM's often excessive wet-ness. too much vodka here ray, i saw hour 51 on ncep and its rain se of qtown and not too much precip through hour 48 nam obviously went mad between 48 and 50 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 More like go home Weatherbell maps, you're drunk +1000 I like how there's that note at the bottom, "May be melting" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 too much vodka here ray, i saw hour 51 on ncep and its rain se of qtown and not too much precip through hour 48 nam obviously went mad between 48 and 50 lol Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 More like go home Weatherbell maps, you're drunk no i am but at least im home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Go home NAM, you're drunk Where do I sign? Regardless of the insane QPF amounts, the colder trend can't be ignored. That's what I will take away form this run. If it's still showing this at 12z tomorrow, it's game on baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Surface temps never go above freezing west of i95. ..wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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