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12/14-12/15 Winter Storm


LVblizzard

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Big difference in cutoff of snow amounts around I-95 from the NAM vs the GFS. GFS shows much more for NW, while the NAM has a much more gradual cutoff. It's gonna be a painful storm for some folks on the fall line if the GFS verifies verbatim. Will be interested too see if one model folds during the 0z runs tonight. 

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that said what Mt Holly is saying in the Western Chester County Zone is a little different.....maybe the map is not updated??

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST

WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.SATURDAY...SNOW. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID

30S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN. SNOW AND SLEET IN THE EVENING...THEN

FREEZING RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW

ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION

NEAR 100 PERCENT.

 

 

The small area of 4-6 inches is most likely what is triggering that wording.

 

 

Maybe a typo on the "heavy snow accumulation" for Upper Bucks.  I don't see it mentioned in the other zones, even in the LV and Poconos. 

 

The small area of 6-8 inches in far upper Bucks is mostly likely what is causing that wording. No typo as the formatter automatically puts in that wording based on the forecast amounts.

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I see they are showing the Reading Prong of eastern Berks County some love!  :)  Although in this case I'm not seeing how a little elevation is going to help much in this storm......other than squeezing out a little more precipitation.  (if ZR mixes in that's happening well above our little 900-1250 foot hills) 

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And 0z is rolling....

Keep these useless posts out of here, please.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm totally kidding.  Sadly, you just increased the post count in this thread by an appreciable percentage.

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Any concern we get screwed over by the transfer to the coast? Heard from a few that some models were showing that? Can't say I really saw it from the globals though.

Coastal transfer is always a concern for this region.  That said, areas further to the southwest (like Lancaster) tend to do better with the initial WAA snows.  Seems that up here in the Lehigh Valley, we are frequently victimized by the shutoff of front-end precip and fringed by the coastal low.  Hoping that's not the case here, so I'm rooting for a not-too-aggressive transfer. :)

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 why does it look like mostly rain se of lehigh valley to me?

I don't know, you'd have to show me what you are looking at.  Certainly here, its snow until about 3Z (hour 51) at TTN:

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KTTN.txt

 

Which would be about 8" on a 10:1 ratio.  And not counting the NAM's often excessive wet-ness.

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Ray I think the NAM is seeing the heavy rates over Philly and keeping it colder or something. Maybe why the 850s are colder to the west of the city than they are in the city at 51 hours. 

That probably has more to do with 850 winds being southeasterly, though the precip rates could have something to do with it as well.

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I don't know, you'd have to show me what you are looking at.  Certainly here, its snow until about 3Z (hour 51) at TTN:

 

http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM212/NAM212_KTTN.txt

 

Which would be about 8" on a 10:1 ratio.  And not counting the NAM's often excessive wet-ness.

too much vodka here ray, i saw hour 51 on ncep and its rain se of qtown and not too much precip through hour 48 nam obviously went mad between 48 and 50 lol

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