Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I thought the GFS was the NAM just now. had to look twice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 ABE still warms above the surface by 06Z Sunday on the GFS, so there's still decent icing with which to contend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I live within two blocks of the stadiums in South Philadelphia. Improbably, we lucked out with the last two storms, as the best forcing and banding set up on a narrow west to east blast. After nary a flake last Winter, I'm more than pleased with the 10+ inches we got in two days. The Eagles game was icing on the white cake ( horrible pun, sorry ). As we rejoice in the current trending, which looks to feed some snow geese in usually snowy zones like Allentown, who were shorted so far, lets hope the weather's penchant for getting stuck in a pattern leads to more snow down in Philly, and I am happy for the rest of you that look to be in the clear. 48 hours out, means tonight's runs will result in advisories or warnings. Stay happy, think SNOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GGEM is a major hit for eastern pa except extreme se pa where it transitions to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z GFS total accumulation map. I'll take this any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z GFS total accumulation map. I'll take this any day. I ran BUFKIT for PHL and came up with less than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Those WXBell maps must use a JB fantasy blizzard algorithms and delete warm layers btw what happened to JMA updates? Not seeing any on the board this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Anybody got specifics on QPF for the Canadian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks around .7" for Lehigh Valley but not specific. Just for giggles since it just wants to snow the Canadian has clipper snows for day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Those WXBell maps must use a JB fantasy blizzard algorithms and delete warm layers JB says the maps use a straight 10:1 ratio based on precip from the model. So if it's 5:1 the maps will bust high, 20:1 they bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think there's a thread on the MA forum that explains the faulty logic used in the Weatherbell algorithm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think there's a thread on the MA forum that explains the faulty logic used in the Weatherbell algorithm. JB went into a lengthy post last week defending the numbers as what the model shows at a 10:1 ratio is what it shows - by comparing the reporting sites output to the map etc. But honestly his explanation was way beyond my limited met abilities! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 First Call NJ: Green: 1-2in (1/4th Snow, changing to rain after 1-2hours of snow) Red: 2-3in (1/3rd Snow, changing to plain rain) Grey: 3-4in (1/3rd to 2/5th Snow, sleet then plain rain) Blue: 3-5in (2/3rds Snow changing over to sleet and then rain) Purple: 5-7in (Stays all Frozen and perhaps changing over to freezing rain and sleet for an hour or two) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Those WXBell maps must use a JB fantasy blizzard algorithms and delete warm layers btw what happened to JMA updates? Not seeing any on the board this year The panels that matter (basically 0.5" of precip area wide with all levels above freezing in SEPA. Everywhere else below freezing at all levels, at least at hour 72): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Updated Wxsim with both NAM/GFS 12z data has increased the snow impact to the NW Philly burbs here is the timing and breakdownSnow arrives 10am temp 22.4Mod Snow by 1pm temp 24.7 (1.0" snow accum)Heavy Snow by 4pm temp 24.9 (3.0" snow)Heavy Snow at 7pm temp 25.6 (6.0" snow)Snow/IP Mix at 930pm temp 26.2 (8.5" total snow before zr mixes in)Precip tapers off to ZR- and ends by early AM Sunday - Temp never rises above 27.9 while precipitating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Question for any of the Mt. Holly mets here, planning on issuing a watch for the northern tier later today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 New maps from Upton, apparently thinking ZR won't be the main story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 ECM a solid 6-8" Lehigh Valley far NW burbs of Philly north stays below freezing. 6" furthest NW burbs with a tight gradient SE towards I95 a classic rain/ snow line deal there Bonus round days 5 ECM has the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 My first guess for the Trenton area is 3-6 inches. Of course they're on the border of much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Well this has become a nice pre "offical" winter month. When does the let down start ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think there's a thread on the MA forum that explains the faulty logic used in the Weatherbell algorithm. Off topic has a great thread about it, very entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Love this Zone Forecast, minus the ice. PAZ105-130900- UPPER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHALFONT...PERKASIE 330 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013 .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 14. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SATURDAY...SNOW. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...SLEET. SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN FREEZING RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Snowfall map out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 interesting at how little snow they have in Chester County - much different than my Wxsim thinking almost 8" of snow! That said I believe I will default to the NWS map above as they must see something.....either way should be interesting how this plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 that said what Mt Holly is saying in the Western Chester County Zone is a little different.....maybe the map is not updated?? .FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWESTWINDS AROUND 5 MPH...BECOMING NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT..SATURDAY...SNOW. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE MID30S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT..SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN. SNOW AND SLEET IN THE EVENING...THENFREEZING RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATIONNEAR 100 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The map just came out...so I think this is there thinking as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Maybe a typo on the "heavy snow accumulation" for Upper Bucks. I don't see it mentioned in the other zones, even in the LV and Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 not really weather related, but... Fox in the backyard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chief83 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 For central Montgomery county - 4-6" of snow and then .05" of ice. (based on NWS PHL maps). Looks like a swath of 4-6 IN snow and .04 to .06" of ice running sw to ne through Chester, Mont, Bucks. Heavier snow to the west - but less ice. Less of each to the s and e. Could be some power issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 For central Montgomery county - 4-6" of snow and then .5" of ice. (based on NWS PHL maps). Looks like a swath of 4-6 IN snow and .4 to .6" of ice running sw to ne through Chester, Mont, Bucks. Heavier snow to the west - but less ice. Less of each to the s and e. Could be some power issues. Did you mean 0.05 of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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