Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 the NAM almost never disappoints. Just thru 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 And I was told over there an 850 low passing to our n and w "means nothing in this setup". Umm, ok. That subforum is a mess. It does mean nothing in regards to the overrunning portion of the event because that is so far out ahead of the time the 850 low becomes an issue..it does mean something for anyone who thinks the coastal can produce though, we learned that the hard way on 12/29 last year...I still have some concerns the overrunning may end up quite a bit north so in essense PHL/NYC see nothing and then get light rain with the coastal...2/21/11 is a good example of where that occurred and 2-3-4 days out it looked like we were ground zero for the overrunning and it ended up over the south Hudson Valley of NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 18z GFS looks EUROish, probably even colder at the surface though, pretty much straddles the freezing line on I-95 entire event, looks like a light thump of 1-4" for most. I'd take it over rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WIN Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 And I was told over there an 850 low passing to our n and w "means nothing in this setup". Umm, ok. That subforum is a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 18z GFS looks EUROish, probably even colder at the surface though, pretty much straddles the freezing line on I-95 entire event, looks like a light thump of 1-4" for most. I'd take it over rain. Gladly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 0z models came in colder and snowier NW of I-95, besides for the NAM. GFS has 3-6", CMC has 6-12", Euro has 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 0z models came in colder and snowier NW of I-95, besides for the NAM. GFS has 3-6", CMC has 6-12", Euro has 3-6". I saw the CMC and that looked like all snow. Based on other sub forums it sounds like the Euro was too. GFS still has us flipping for a time NW of the cities? Either way tonight had good trends and I would take 3-6 in a heart beat. 6-12 would be icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 ECM is the coldest and looks like 3-5" for SEPA and central jersey. Three wintry precipitation events in one week this early in the season must be rare UKMET looks in line with ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 ECM is the coldest and looks like 3-5" for SEPA and central jersey. Three wintry precipitation events in one week this early in the season must be rare December 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 December 2005 3 Ray? I remember the big one which was 10" in my backyard. What a great start to winter that December was, we were on our way to epic when the month long torch hit on Dec 22....this year has indications that WILL NOT happen again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 3 Ray? I remember the big one which was 10" in my backyard. What a great start to winter that December was, we were on our way to epic when the month long torch hit on Dec 22....this year has indications that WILL NOT happen again http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/04-Dec-05.html http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/06-Dec-05.html http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2006/09-Dec-05.html I guess the middle one missed the NW burbs, it only affected I-95 on south and east, while the last one was mainly I-95 on north and west and missed the shore. But for I-95 proper, yeah there were 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Ya'all better send some love back up toward I-81 on this one. I pretty much missed out on the last two, barely getting an inch on the 10th, and only half inch on the 8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Ya'all better send some love back up toward I-81 on this one. I pretty much missed out on the last two, barely getting an inch on the 10th, and only half inch on the 8th. Looks like this will be PA-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks like this will be PA-wide. That's good. I love to see a storm where pretty much everyone gets a good snowfall. Most times, someone ends up on the northern fringes or the wrong side of the rain-snow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Dr.No is Dr.Yes for this storm compared to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Southern portions of the Mt Holly forecast area look to be rain after a quick inch or two of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Dr.No is Dr.Yes for this storm compared to the other models. Actually we have a decent consensus for a moderate snow event Saturday. Only the nam is by itself in terms of warmth because it tucks the low so close to the coast whereas other guidance develops slp about 150 miles off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 So why is the HPC less bullish on decent accumulating snow south of 78 in eastern PA? http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Mainly because its a moderate event down this way as it appears now and not as much qpf from the waa and coastal until both pass us by. This could change of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 ^ And because a change to freezing rain is more probable towards the end of the storm. Still, I think 4+" is a safe bet for places like Allentown and even Quakertown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z nam much colder at the surface though still warmest model overall. Surface only gets above freezing in extreme se pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 And just for giggles, the hires nam sets up some waa banding across southern pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The Lehigh Valley could be set up for significant icing on Saturday night if reality plays out similar to how the NAM depicts things. Surface temps get to about 28F but not much beyond that until we get to the typical freezing drizzle epilogue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The Lehigh Valley could be set up for significant icing on Saturday night if reality plays out similar to how the NAM depicts things. Surface temps get to about 28F but not much beyond that until we get to the typical freezing drizzle epilogue. Nothing like 2-4 inches of wet snow on top of an already crusty 4 inches; then add 0.25 inch of ice on top of that and it's glacier time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12 GFS coming in cold and snowy with 3-4" already through 60hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 12 GFS coming in cold and snowy with 3-4" already through 60hrSnow maps show 2" in Philly, 3-5" in the NW burbs, and 6-9" in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Mild punch through SEPA next 6hr period precipitation over to freezing rain before ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Snow maps show 2" in Philly, 3-5" in the NW burbs, and 6-9" in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. GFS still showing a more climatological heavier snow to the NW storm with ECM cold for everybody in PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Snow maps show 2" in Philly, 3-5" in the NW burbs, and 6-9" in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. Interesting. Must be a big difference in the evolution of the warm layer. NAM had it over 4C for ABE during the height of the ZR late Saturday evening. Can't wait to see the profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Latest Wxsim with combo of 6z GFS and 12z NAM has the following for my backyard in NW ChescoLight snow arriving by 10am temp 21.2Moderate Snow by 1pm temp 24.3 (1.0" on ground)Heavy Snow by 4pm temp 24.3 (3.0")Heavy Snow continues at 7pm temp 24.4 (5.0" on ground)Snow/IP mix at 10pm temp 25.2 (6.0" sn/ip on ground)Mix to ZR- toward 11pm with another 0.08" falling (total accumulation 6-6.5")Temp never rises above 26.5 during entire event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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