famartin Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Gonna have to bite the bullet on this one... downgrade to 1-3 inches back home in the Trenton area today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Latest Wxsim with full 12z suite still going with a significant snowstorm followed by significant icing - here is breakdownby 4pm snow begins to get heavy Temp down to 26.0 with 1.0" on groundat 7pm Heavy Snow temp down to 24.4 with 3.5" accumulatedHeavy Snow continues thru 10pm by which point 7-8" of snow has accumulated temp down to 23.7IP mixes in but still heavy at 11pm temp at 23.9 by 11pm 0.92" of liquid equiv has fallen (most of it snow)Seems to be a battle with a mix of IP/ZR for a couple hours but another 0.34" falls as ZR/IP - highest temp during precip is 26.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Gonna have to bite the bullet on this one... downgrade to 1-3 inches back home in the Trenton area today. Ray I noticed Mt Holly downgraded Lehigh Valley as well in both snow and ice (slightly). Do you have any insight on their rationale? More sleet expected knocking down snow totals possibly? Or is the precip just less than originally expected? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Ray I noticed Mt Holly downgraded Lehigh Valley as well in both snow and ice (slightly). Do you have any insight on their rationale? More sleet expected knocking down snow totals possibly? Or is the precip just less than originally expected? Thanks. I don't know what they are specifically thinking, just what I'm thinking... which is that the warm air is looking more predominant and the precip so far has underperformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I don't know what they are specifically thinking, just what I'm thinking... which is that the warm air is looking more predominant and the precip so far has underperformed. Wasn't the majority of precip supposed to fall this evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Wasn't the majority of precip supposed to fall this evening? The majority, yes, but I'm sure the precip that was expected to fall this morning was factored into earlier forecasts. And there was some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I don't know what they are specifically thinking, just what I'm thinking... which is that the warm air is looking more predominant and the precip so far has underperformed. Do those snow and ice forecast maps usually show storm totals, or additional snow and ice amounts to what has already fallen? Always appreciate your responses and your willingness to answer questions from us wx neophytes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Do those snow and ice forecast maps usually show storm totals, or additional snow and ice amounts to what has already fallen? Always appreciate your responses and your willingness to answer questions from us wx neophytes! I'm not sure on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I am assuming total for the event, only because they are called "storm total snowfall" maps. Could be wrong, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I am assuming total for the event, only because they are called "storm total snowfall" maps. Could be wrong, though. Well, that's what I thought too, but the the posted "time stamp" on the top kinda makes me question it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Well, that's what I thought too, but the the posted "time stamp" on the top kinda makes me question it. Well, that's probably the time the image was generated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Check out monmouth county Http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=012ℑ=data%2Fhrw-arw%2F12%2Fhrw-arw_eus_012_precip_p12.gif&model=hrw-arw-eus&area=eus¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Check out monmouth county Http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=012ℑ=data%2Fhrw-arw%2F12%2Fhrw-arw_eus_012_precip_p12.gif&model=hrw-arw-eus&area=eus¶m=precip_p12&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= Lol..... let's go with... convective feedback hah? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Gonna have to bite the bullet on this one... downgrade to 1-3 inches back home in the Trenton area today. yeah more like 3-4" upper bucks montco and chester and 1-3" southern portions i would think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 how much was I saying yesterday to expect colder than modeled .. 14.8 here. and falling temps the last 3 hours. plus, I hear it's snowing in SNJ now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 how much was I saying yesterday to expect colder than modeled .. 14.8 here. and falling temps the last 3 hours. plus, I hear it's snowing in SNJ now.. It won't last down there. And surface temps won't have much to do with what happens above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Not being a good model reader; what is the status of the coastal low and its impact on the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It won't last down there. And surface temps won't have much to do with what happens above the surface. This is a very important lesson I learned here at amwx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It won't last down there. that we all know. but models forecasted above freezing in all parts of SNJ by now. will be very interesting tonight, how much this dynamic cooling could hang onto the snow for interior NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 how much was I saying yesterday to expect colder than modeled .. I don t remember that. I do remember u "forecasting" that guidance would come in colder to which almost every piece of data came in warmer. This is known as wishcasting. Enjoy your snow BS! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Not being a good model reader; what is the status of the coastal low and its impact on the region? Pressure falls in eastern Virginia indicate coastal low is forming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Pressure falls in easter Virginia indicate coastal low is forming thanks. any indication of track, or too early to tell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I don t remember that. I do remember u "forecasting" that guidance would come in colder to which almost every piece of data came in warmer. This is known as wishcasting. Enjoy your snow BS! :-) Bacon Strips, on 13 Dec 2013 - 12:38 PM, said : I'm almost positive tonight's runs will be even colder. Even if the models don't show it tonight, still expect it tomorrow. The models didn't show SNJ getting close to a foot of snow.... 6 hours before the event either. not trying to brag...but you asked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I don t remember that. I do remember u "forecasting" that guidance would come in colder to which almost every piece of data came in warmer. This is known as wishcasting. Enjoy your snow BS! :-) I'm almost positive tonight's runs will be even colder. Even if the models don't show it tonight, still expect it tomorrow. The models didn't show SNJ getting close to a foot of snow.... 6 hours before the event either. not trying to brag...but you asked. I hope for your sake you r right. Best wishes and good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It won't last down there. And surface temps won't have much to do with what happens above the surface. Radar showing warm air taking over quickly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Radar showing warm air taking over quickly.... The freezing line has been down there all day. not surprising. I'm kinda surprised about mt holly's afternoon discussion about the model warming...and decreasing the snow amounts. while Nowcasting shows temps are somewhat below forecasted levels for northern and central NJ currently. And with these bands about to move in....1 to 3 inches of snow an hour could happen in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 that we all know. but models forecasted above freezing in all parts of SNJ by now. will be very interesting tonight, how much this dynamic cooling could hang onto the snow for interior NNJ. Not *all* but certainly *most*... which *is* verifying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 18Z NAM has taken out any mention of plain rain for ABE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 18Z NAM has taken out any mention of plain rain for ABE. so, all snow, or sleet, or mix? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The freezing line has been down there all day. not surprising. I'm kinda surprised about mt holly's afternoon discussion about the model warming...and decreasing the snow amounts. while Nowcasting shows temps are somewhat below forecasted levels for northern and central NJ currently. And with these bands about to move in....1 to 3 inches of snow an hour could happen in no time. I only went to accu weather, but the surge of warm air is impressive. What a bummer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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