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12/14-12/15 Winter Storm

LVblizzard

By LVblizzard,
in Philadelphia Region

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

One question though... Obviously looking at the GGEM above there is some heavy snow falling in EPA - where the R/S line sits. I know that once heavy snow falls, it tends to "cool the column." Would this be something that could really slow the mix line from racing into PA with these snow rates?

It "could", but if you have a howling warm wind it will still move.  See 2/4/1995... heavy snow across most of NJ changed to heavy rain from SE to NW... didn't reach far NW but most other areas turned.  And it was puking snow before then, 2-3"/hour rates.

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kpantz

kpantz

Posted
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Earthlight mentioned it in the NYC thread and I agree. The GEM has been very, very consistent with the placement of the the mix line and the heaviest snow for a couple days now. Doesn't make it right, but you gotta admire its tenacity.

One thing seems certain, no matter what model you read. The changeover follows very closely behind the axis of heavy precipitation. Whoever is lucky enough to be just NW of the mix line when it runs out of steam will be very lucky indeed.

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thedude11

thedude11

Posted
Posted

It "could", but if you have a howling warm wind it will still move. See 2/4/1995... heavy snow across most of NJ changed to heavy rain from SE to NW... didn't reach far NW but most other areas turned. And it was puking snow before then, 2-3"/hour rates.

Going to be an interesting day. Couldnt imagine trying to pin down a storm like this... 25 miles or so could really mean a world difference.

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kpantz

kpantz

Posted
Posted

Going to be an interesting day. Couldnt imagine trying to pin down a storm like this... 25 miles or so could really mean a world difference.

Considering I'm in my home sub forum, I'm going to get on my soapbox for a minute here. You're touching on one of my biggest pet peeves as far as the general public is concerned. People love to laugh and criticize when a snowfall forecast goes awry, either because a changeover did or didn't happen or because someone got fringed...or didn't when they expected to be. I don't think the general public is informed nearly well enough when it comes to the nuanced nature of these boundaries. You'd think that, given the climatology of this region, there would be more emphasis given to the extremely fine line these forecasts tread...but all folks are shown is an accumulation map.

Can anyone in the TV space opine on why we don't hit this harder? Is it just that it's been proven that people tune out? Is there data to support that messaging about this stuff doesn't work?

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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

Considering I'm in my home sub forum, I'm going to get on my soapbox for a minute here. You're touching on one of my biggest pet peeves as far as the general public is concerned. People love to laugh and criticize when a snowfall forecast goes awry, either because a changeover did or didn't happen or because someone got fringed...or didn't when they expected to be. I don't think the general public is informed nearly well enough when it comes to the nuanced nature of these boundaries. You'd think that, given the climatology of this region, there would be more emphasis given to the extremely fine line these forecasts tread...but all folks are shown is an accumulation map.

Can anyone in the TV space opine on why we don't hit this harder? Is it just that it's been proven that people tune out? Is there data to support that messaging about this stuff doesn't work?

 

When I used to forecast for TV stations at AccuWx, I would like to go into all the possibilities if I thought they were realistic, but other mets there would laugh at me for doing so, saying I was just covering my butt and not really making a forecast.  There is that "competition" to be "right" and give a deterministic forecast. 

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kpantz

kpantz

Posted
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When I used to forecast for TV stations at AccuWx, I would like to go into all the possibilities if I thought they were realistic, but other mets there would laugh at me for doing so, saying I was just covering my butt and not really making a forecast.  There is that "competition" to be "right" and give a deterministic forecast.

That makes me sad. :(

Admittedly, I work in a different field, but transparency has never failed me in my professional or personal life. It truly saddens me that people are given incentives to make decisions, present them as the right ones and suppress the thinking behind them.

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NJHurricane

NJHurricane

Posted
Posted

Considering I'm in my home sub forum, I'm going to get on my soapbox for a minute here. You're touching on one of my biggest pet peeves as far as the general public is concerned. People love to laugh and criticize when a snowfall forecast goes awry, either because a changeover did or didn't happen or because someone got fringed...or didn't when they expected to be. I don't think the general public is informed nearly well enough when it comes to the nuanced nature of these boundaries. You'd think that, given the climatology of this region, there would be more emphasis given to the extremely fine line these forecasts tread...but all folks are shown is an accumulation map.

Can anyone in the TV space opine on why we don't hit this harder? Is it just that it's been proven that people tune out? Is there data to support that messaging about this stuff doesn't work?

There was a spirited discussion of this several years ago at one of the BWI Easternuswx conferences...personally i think nuance can be gradually introduced over time. The ppl who like simple explanations always will...the same people who live for busted forecasts so they can self righteously trash "those idiots"....the fact is TWC started using a Jet Stream graphic 30 years ago and Joe Viewer gained a crude grasp of what it meant....now average ppl who know I am a weather hobbyist ask about "that euopean thing" since TWC and some local stations mention it....one day a brave mainstream soul will sally forth with a probability based graphic, and enough will grasp that as well....onward, ever onward....but slowly
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famartin

famartin

Posted
Posted

0Z EC holds firm, about 4" at TTN before changeover.  Maybe a smidge warmer but still close to the NAM profile at 0Z Sunday, much colder than the GFS's odd low-level warm surge. 

 

No changes to my 3-6" forecast for TTN area, though right now I'd probably lean towards the lower end, where as 12 hours ago I leaned towards the upper end.

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Blizzard-on-GFS

Blizzard-on-GFS

Posted
Posted

0Z EC holds firm, about 4" at TTN before changeover. Maybe a smidge warmer but still close to the NAM profile at 0Z Sunday, much colder than the GFS's odd low-level warm surge.

No changes to my 3-6" forecast for TTN area, though right now I'd probably lean towards the lower end, where as 12 hours ago I leaned towards the upper end.

I'm thinking 2-4". I'll be back in TTN for this event posting obs. I sure hope your forecast is right.
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famartin

famartin

Posted
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I'm thinking 2-4". I'll be back in TTN for this event posting obs. I sure hope your forecast is right.

Not much difference between 2-4 and 3-4 (since that's the end of the range I'm leaning towards at present). 

 

You're on the northeast side of the city as I recall.  My parents being on the northwest side means they could do a bit better.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County with the 6z GFS and NAM data incorporated. Timing has pushed back a bit and appears to have moved to more periods of snow with varying intensity. Can see that the front passed thru in the last couple hours and temps have slowly begun to fall here with the now NNE wind kicking in. Temps still remain in the 20's for the duration of the event - here is the detailed breakdown

Light Snow arrives by 10am temp 28.8 but not much accumulation through around 1pm

1230p-130p a burst of moderate snow - temp up to 29.1 by 130p with around 1" of snow on the ground

Another period of moderate snow kicks in around 330pm by 430p 2" of snow is on the ground and temps have dropped to 25.1

A fairly heavy period of snow kicks in from around 630-1030pm with surface temps bottoming out in the low 20's (by 1030pm - 6" to 8" of snow has accumulated)

From 1030-1230am there is an at times heavy mix of IP and Snow with around another inch of snow/sleet accumulation (total snow accumulation at 7" to 9") temp at 1230am at 23.6

From 1230a-300a a period of ZR with 0.30" falling - temps rise from 23.6 to 25.2 by 330am before ending.

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Rainshadow

Rainshadow

Posted
Posted

Like that dot of 8-10 on my cabin :) Kids have been on mountain for an hour. Love having our first day come with a storm. Light snow since sun up, just dusting away for now.

 

Even Mitch & I's 70% SREF snow approach which appears conservative on snow because the 00z and 06z nam warmed still gives the Poconos around 6" before any change to not snow.

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mookiemike

mookiemike

Posted
Posted

Last week, since I like anything literary or cinema, we had my children's "Little train that Could" on Monday. A classic over performing surprise where the best dynamics of forcing, lift, a cooling column, produced 8.6 inches in mere hours.

 

Then, for good measure another 4" on Tuesday, considering we had seen flurries just before Christmas, our entire Winter experience, last year.

 

I can remember a certain forecaster's expression, which, I being a laid back person now, not the Type "A", am happy to be a Miller "B" ( sorry, can't resist bad puns ). But the message is you can't do anything to control it, so just go with the flow.

 

Though there might be "wailing and gnashing of teeth", I'd rather think it is the only weather we got, so enjoy the mysteries, and the 1-2 surprises this very complex storm induces.

 

Sorry for any over-hype in my earlier call, when I am usually reserved and circumspect.

 

I'm here to be with people of good heart and nature, professionals and amateur alike, who share this board and the thing they have in common, no matter the letters which follow your name professionally, PASSION for meteorology. We will learn a lot from this storm, that is payoff enough for me. Besides, Though still a "kid" inside, I have to set an example for my children that there are snow drifts to come, and you can't enjoy the snow and magic, without a little rain on your hoped for parade.

 

I'm going to drink some of my Bavarian beer a friend dropped off last night, and enjoy the show, and the observation comments.

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted

 

I'm going to drink some of my Bavarian beer a friend dropped off last night, and enjoy the show, and the observation comments.

 

 

:thumbsup:

 

 

 

NAM and GFS 12z are almost identical with QPF...which seems astounding. But GFS = Wetter.

 

Both models seem a touch colder as well. 

 

1.25 to 1.50 total QPF for northern half of NJ on GFS !  

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jdt

jdt

Posted
Posted

:thumbsup:

 

 

 

NAM and GFS 12z are almost identical with QPF...which seems astounding. But GFS = Wetter.

 

Both models seem a touch colder as well. 

 

1.25 to 1.50 total QPF for northern half of NJ on GFS !  

Without looking in depth the GFS will bring a sleet fest to many in NNJ tonight with rain south. The freezing rain threat may increase some too though I suspect heavy precip rates will favor sleet over freezing rain for the most parts once warming aloft transitions as from mainly snow. Of course prior to that 3-8" should fall this afternoon into this evening from S to SE to N to NW. Wherever the transition line stops its progress areas just NW of there will do very well snowfall wise. That will probably end up being in extreme NW NJ into most of Orange County. Catskills do well as usual also. 

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jdt

jdt

Posted
Posted

This strong High has been tearing up any decent radar bands so far.. 

 

Somewhat expected, but could also mean a colder solution.  :)

I think from a precip intensity standpoint things are on track. Precip was expected to vary from light to moderate and perhaps be intermittent into at least early to mid afternoon. As for a colder solution well more data both NAM / GFS and hi res models are painting a picture where midlevels warm above freezing tonight and that this warming will progress from the S / SE to the N / NW. At the surface the cold hangs tuff N&W but closer the metro NJ / NYC and points S&E temps exceed freezing and precip eventually goes to rain. The NW locations likely remain all frozen (maybe a touch of non freezing precip towards then in some places) but a change to sleet and or freezing rain likely in most of the NW areas. A strip of the NW area may have a decent freezing rain threat developing as indicated by Uptons updated freezing rain map. But prior to all this a decent thumping of snow late this afternoon into the evening ours prior to the warming. 

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