chrisNJ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Verbatim, this is a decent snow followed by a mad amount of sleet and freezing rain for these parts. Yes it is the NAM, but it's amazing how QPF on just about all the models today has increase. And yes, NW NJ and the Poconos get a real good snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 2:52 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Surface temps never go above freezing west of i95. ..wow The weenie in me wants to believe that the high resolution of the NAM is picking up on the colder air/snow pack better than the GFS and Euro lol. It's certainly possible. Especially given the fact that the NAM is usually warmer. I'm cautiously optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 2:57 AM, chrisNJ said: Verbatim, this is a decent snow followed by a mad amount of sleet and freezing rain for these parts. Yes it is the NAM, but it's amazing how QPF on just about all the models today has increase. And yes, NW NJ and the Poconos get a real good snowstorm. Yeah those wxbell fantasy snowmaps are far off base from what i see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm sure the bell map will end up on twitter or FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Barker map... remember this doesn't account for the NAM wet bias which is probably in play here... http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_ETA212_SFC_ACCUMSNOWFALL-KUCHERA_60HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Regardless of what happens, this Met Winter is off to a heck of a start. I am semi excited about this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:06 AM, Quakertown needs snow said: I'm sure the bell map will end up on twitter or FB One run of the nam has the nyc crowd looking for a MECS lol, gfs will bring all back to earth in 1/2 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Zoomed radar overlay, probably a bit more realistic (as if .8" water equivalent in the form of snow is realistic in this storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:13 AM, famartin said: Zoomed radar overlay, probably a bit more realistic (as if .8" water equivalent in the form of snow is realistic in this storm) Much more realistic. I hate those wxbell maps; they are always ridiculously overdone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastBravest Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 State College issued watches. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=PAZ058&warncounty=PAC107&firewxzone=PAZ058&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch#.Uqp8S3i9LCQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This storm is revenge for 09-10, I will just need to deal with this painful NW winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County with 18z GFS and 0z Nam8.0" of snow/IP and then 0.75" of liquid falling as ZR highest temp during precip is 28.8....yikes! if this comes to pass!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:34 AM, ChescoPaWxman said: Latest Wxsim for NW Chester County with 18z GFS and 0z Nam 8.0" of snow/IP and then 0.75" of liquid falling as ZR highest temp during precip is 28.8....yikes! if this comes to pass!!! The first part is fine... but yikes on that 2nd part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:12 AM, chrisNJ said: Regardless of what happens, this Met Winter is off to a heck of a start. I am semi excited about this weekend.Good to see you posting. IIRC you've been in this neck because of work...we're enjoying snow on snow right now and looking for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Compared to the NAM's 8 inches, the GFS is probably about 3 inches at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 GFS is not the nam warmer thermal profiles coastal hugger. NW trend is disconcerting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:58 AM, RedSky said: GFS is not the nam warmer thermal profiles coastal hugger. NW trend is disconcerting I don't have 12Z in front of me, but compared to 18Z its actually slower bringing in the warmer low level air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Surface is over philly at 54hr this is the warmest model of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 4:07 AM, RedSky said: Surface is over philly at 54hr this is the warmest model of the dayThe cheese stands alone? The srefs were quite toasty from what I recall as well tho. This warm trend is certainly something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 4:10 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: The cheese stands alone? The srefs were quite toasty from what I recall as well tho. This warm trend is certainly something to consider. Nah ralph put the NAM under the pillow and get to sleep all will be well in the am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 What did the rgem show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 4:14 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: What did the rgem show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 4:14 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: What did the rgem show? Like the nam mountains of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Now i have to stay up for the DOCTOR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Ditto. Doctor no should clear things up! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Climatology and past storms like this would obviously suggest i95 as the frozen/rain line as per nam/rgem style. I'm not sure the boundary is as far north as the gfs depicts nor that the system gets too wrapped up. This is a tough one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 4:17 AM, kpantz said: LOL at that 1036mb "Low" in Quebec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 5:01 AM, SnowGoose69 said: LOL at that 1036mb "Low" in Quebec Stands for "Le high" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 3:13 AM, famartin said: Zoomed radar overlay, probably a bit more realistic (as if .8" water equivalent in the form of snow is realistic in this storm) I'm liking this Ray, though I know it won't verify. It's not too dissimilar from WxBell map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 On 12/13/2013 at 5:25 AM, Absolute Humidity said: I'm liking this Ray, though I know it won't verify. It's not too dissimilar from WxBell map. WxBell is a few inches higher and is too expansive with the higher totals towards the southeast, IMHO. At least compared to the Barker map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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