Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It's pretty much correct. Yes, 60hrs ago the euro was a whiff, but the 6" the GFS threw out to practically I-90 was absurd. It was a whiff at 48 hours Scott. Sunday had basically nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Mid level fronto and mois convergence will possibly strengthen the albany stuff moving east says box Pretty well modeled too...another burst is coming for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Screw the models, most in here did a damn good job on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nobody really mentioned BL temps .... They effected accums...so far...which is why blizz at 1k im sure is doin better than his neighbors at say 300' or less in s ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nobody really mentioned BL temps .... They effected accums...so far...which is why blizz at 1k im sure is doin better than his neighbors at say 300' or less in s ct. well...said yesterday it might even start as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nobody really mentioned BL temps .... They effected accums...so far...which is why blizz at 1k im sure is doin better than his neighbors at say 300' or less in s ct.I dunno. I saw some 2 + inch reports from Wallingford and Hebron in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It was a whiff at 48 hours Scott. Sunday had basically nothing. I guess you are ignoring yesterday completely when forecasts matter like in my professional field? If I went with the GFS, flights would be cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 BL issues were the biggest problem here, now that the temp is 32/33 snow ended, i hope i get an inch total by this afternoon with the second batch. Box 2-4 is overdone IMO at least for PVD metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I guess you are ignoring yesterday completely when forecasts matter like in my professional field? If I went with the GFS, flights would be cancelled. No, but unless you consider the Euro a short term model it's probably a fair comparison to say it was the last model to the party with this storm, even trailing the UKMET in the short to mid term where it was totally blind to the potential. It had nothing...maybe .01" making it to the Cape on Sunday. It was horrendous in the later short to mid term. There's a reason why most of us were 1-3" Easton/Taunton south and maybe more on the south coast 2/4" I don't think anyone bought the GFS aside of a few. Like I said I think sometimes people miss the blatant patterns while they're busy looking strictly at levels/soundings etc. This happens almost all the time in marginal situations and it will happen again a couple of times this winter. GFS/NAM owing to their overdoing things will pick up on marginal events sooner, definitively overdo it while the Euro trudges to a better solution usually. Barring a boost from the lift coming through now I'm doubting I'm much more than 1" with a 10 to 1. About 1/2 of the rough expectation from the Euro....so unless it ramps up suffice to say they were all a little heavy on QPF with the reality being last nights RGEM/GGEM being as good as about anything, IMO. NCEP guidance is going to overshoot 99% of the time. It's that 1 in 100 where it finds a nut that keeps us hanging on. Great at seeing longer term potential, poor at defining shorter term top end potential. The model surprising me this winter so far is the CMC stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 well...said yesterday it might even start as rain. Im not talking cape cod , but ya temps factored more. I mentioned it a cpl x and u sort of said it won't matter for cape, so long as rates comply. But it has effected accums today a bit....so far ... Many posters can attest to this today. Dont get me wrong to ignore this point, im just saying it wasnt given much talk . Its not a big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I dunno. I saw some 2 + inch reports from Wallingford and Hebron in CT There around 1.5" here in South Windsor at about 300' Flurries here right now and 32F. Local and highways roads are just wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 BTW I think for the record everyone here was on the same page. Forecasts were sound and most disregarded the GFS/NAM beyond confirmation of an event. Cape about to get hit pretty hard again with another band but they're transient which is why I suspect models dispersed the precip more than blasted any one area. I think overall it's going about as planned. Phil figured 2" would be about the average down here, I think most were in agreement on that. MIGHT be a little tight getting there but the general theme of 1-3" or 2-4 if we get lucky with a band (probably down under 20% chance now) is working fine. My only exception is really that outside of 36-48 hours it's hard to say the Euro was best when it had nothing. Inside of 36 sure...but we know these strengths and weaknesses and they WILL play out again this winter. Many justified the calls for no event based on the Euro this weekend and that was incorrect. However small this is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Screw the models, most in here did a damn good job on this one. I agree. It seemed like this was one of the few times that the models were generally treated as guidance (as they should be) and there wasn't much model/run hugging. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. We could still see accums over the next few hours from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 About to head to work, but -SN again only with better flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I agree. It seemed like this was one of the few times that the models were generally treated as guidance (as they should be) and there wasn't much model/run hugging. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. We could still see accums over the next few hours from this. After a lull,, nice steady snow is falling now. 30.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 1.5" In North Cumberland. Cleaning the Mountain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nobody really mentioned BL temps .... They effected accums...so far...which is why blizz at 1k im sure is doin better than his neighbors at say 300' or less in s ct.HI, elephant in the room. 1.25 here, beautiful white, nice burst starting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Just over 1.75 thus far and still light snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 JMHO I kind of think even the Euro may have been overdone down here, best banding never really setup...very transient. Not even snowing now, might be a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 ...I suppose I will have to photograph my (non slanted) ruler onto the board as folks will think I'm making sh*t up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Moderate to heavy snow here for the last 90 minutes or so with 1" per hour rates and 1/4 mile visibility. Probably between 1.5" and 2" new, but I haven't measured yet. It's a fine visibility reducing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 things weakened a bit but it's now back to a steady light / mod snow. vis is about .75 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Have to verify ( OT ) but my father just left me a message that Antarctica just put up the World's coldest temperature ever recorded, a -135.8F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 32.7 / -S Actually sticking this go around. Better snow growth too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Have to verify ( OT ) but my father just left me a message that Antarctica just put up the World's coldest temperature ever recorded, a -135.8F It was a reported temperature from a satellite. It was released by NASA. I don't believe it was ground recorded. My co-worked showed me the article. Here's the link to the article: http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/12/10/antarctica-cold-record/3950019/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 slushy 1/2 inch at home but thats closer to water, seems like higher spots on the island did better, nevertheless often difficult to accumulate snow in early december in south coastal RI, 33/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 ...I suppose I will have to photograph my (non slanted) ruler onto the board as folks will think I'm making sh*t up. And even when you do that..you still get called a liar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It was a reported temperature from a satellite. It was released by NASA. I don't believe it was ground recorded. My co-worked showed me the article. Here's the link to the article: http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/12/10/antarctica-cold-record/3950019/ Interesting... have to give it read. I will say ... it's summer in the SH. Oh, wait -- it happened in Aug of 2010, which is there winter. 'k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 ...I suppose I will have to photograph my (non slanted) ruler onto the board as folks will think I'm making sh*t up.I was in your hood a half hour ago, confirmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Steady -SN in CON now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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