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Dec 10th Obs Thread


Baroclinic Zone

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i think this is the area to watch down here...see if this can strengthen a bit and fill in as the upper level disturbance pivots through and things get a little boost. 

 

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I think my take away from this is once again 700vvs kind of trumped everything else.   The main and steady precip is under the best lift at those levels.

 

1" here on the nose, light snow now.

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I think my take away from this is once again 700vvs kind of trumped everything else.   The main and steady precip is under the best lift at those levels.

 

1" here on the nose, light snow now.

 

The GFS was just too far north with that...there is good 700-500 vvs..just not like the GFS had. I think the issues we stated worked out..but a nice little event anyways for some.

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GFS was way too aggressive, but we all thought that. I think euro was best..it had the least QPF and will be right..AWT.

 

 

Agreed. GFS implied widespread 3-5" with probably spot 6"+. Not even close.

 

The area to the west should allow the 1-2" with spot 3"+ to verify which is basically what the Euro had.

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GFS was way too aggressive, but we all thought that. I think euro was best inside of 36 hours..it had the least QPF and will be right..AWT.

 

Euro had NO QPF 36-48 hours out on this storm.  The 12z Sunday Euro was a total whiff.  This year outside of 36-48 hours...

 

GFS/NAM always overdo.   What was once a 60-72 hour lead on the Euro for dead on accuracy is down to about 1.5 days this year.

 

It's a clear pattern that happens over and over with one going too aggressive and the Euro seemingly constantly underplaying these threats.  Happened a bunch of times last year too on marginal events.

 

EDIT: Don't forget...the Euro barely even had a wave...it's not like it was just keeping it offshore, it almost entirely missed the concept this time.

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Dude the Euro was abysmal with this. It had no snow anywhere in SNE 2 days ago. It def was the worst on this one. No question

 

Last nights Euro made the GFS its b*tch.  We all thought that and the forecasts near and north of the pike for very little snow will work out for the most part. Elevated areas like ORH may do better, but overall the flags we all raised with this were pretty much correct.

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Yes, it was bad inside of 60 hours...but last night's forecast will definitely beat the over-zealous GFS.

But how can you say it was better than other models? It gave us s sunny day 2 days ago. It kept coming NW while other models had snow . Sure GFS was too hefty Qpf wise, but it had the right idea before euro. So did the nam sadly
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But how can you say it was better than other models? It gave us s sunny day 2 days ago. It kept coming NW while other models had snow . Sure GFS was too hefty Qpf wise, but it had the right idea before euro. So did the nam sadly

 

 

I wasn't comparing it to 48 hours ago...I was comparing it to the forecasts that were formulated yesterday for this event.

 

I agree the Euro stunk a couple days out on this one, but once we were making forecasts yesterday for accumulations, it had the best idea. The GFS wins this one from 48 hours out...it came in last place for inside of 24 hours.

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