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Dec 10 Morning Crusher (obs/nowcasting)


yoda

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One thing I distinctly remember about the ULL was watching the changeover from drizzle to sleet to big fatty's on radar via correlation coefficient. Look at radar and see the line pass, look outside and see no more rain. After a period of sleet/snow mix it just ripped for a few hours. Took me over 2 hours to make a 30 mile round trip to pick up the wife from work. I know many people poo poo that storm because of the day time melt, but the bookend ripping snow was enough for me. 

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That storm no longer exists in my mind. I paid to have it removed permanently.

 

I actually almost literally forgot about a lot of those great runs leading up to it and just how great it seemed even 5 hours before the storm.

 

I don't blame anyone who's still bitter about March 2013... it was a gut-wrenching bust... especially for a lot of you who at that point hadn't seen a 2-3" snowfall since Jan 2011.

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I actually almost literally forgot about a lot of those great runs leading up to it and just how great it seemed even 5 hours before the storm.

 

I don't blame anyone who's still bitter about March 2013... it was a gut-wrenching bust... especially for a lot of you who at that point hadn't seen a 2-3" snowfall since Jan 2011.

It was amazing how every pornographic run was just flat out wrong. We were supposed to get 6-8" front end followed by CCB destruction all the next day. Nothing could be further from the reality. 

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March 2013 was an excellent lesson if nothing else. We knew damn well how tight temps were going in. It was ripe for a bust. We we're hoping for everything to all come together perfectly (it could have) but it didn't. We had zero cold air source to work with. It was all in-situ. I learned a great lesson. Numerical models weren't far off. Just a tad too cold and it was way marginal. I think the fact that SO many runs showed a good shot of snow that we dismissed the inherent flaw too much. I was way guilty of it.

What happened the next day was a more classic bust of things not developing as expected. As the low went nuts down near Ric it drifted a little se before making the turn. All of the good lift and dynamics were robbed up here. The euro was the only model that showed a couple runs leading in with the se drift but we dismissed them because it's not really common for a bombing low to do that. oops.

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March 2013 was an excellent lesson if nothing else. We knew damn well how tight temps were going in. It was ripe for a bust. We we're hoping for everything to all come together perfectly (it could have) but it didn't. We had zero cold air source to work with. It was all in-situ. I learned a great lesson. Numerical models weren't far off. Just a tad too cold and it was way marginal. I think the fact that SO many runs showed a good shot of snow that we dismissed the inherent flaw too much. I was way guilty of it.

What happened the next day was a more classic bust of things not developing as expected. As the low went nuts down near Ric it drifted a little se before making the turn. All of the good lift and dynamics were robbed up here. The euro was the only model that showed a couple runs leading in with the se drift but we dismissed them because it's not really common for a bombing low to do that. oops.

That Storm sucked even where it snowed. 11.5" here, 4" by 2 pm and it sounded like Niagara Falls

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March 2013 was an excellent lesson if nothing else. We knew damn well how tight temps were going in. It was ripe for a bust. We we're hoping for everything to all come together perfectly (it could have) but it didn't. We had zero cold air source to work with. It was all in-situ. I learned a great lesson. Numerical models weren't far off. Just a tad too cold and it was way marginal. I think the fact that SO many runs showed a good shot of snow that we dismissed the inherent flaw too much. I was way guilty of it.

What happened the next day was a more classic bust of things not developing as expected. As the low went nuts down near Ric it drifted a little se before making the turn. All of the good lift and dynamics were robbed up here. The euro was the only model that showed a couple runs leading in with the se drift but we dismissed them because it's not really common for a bombing low to do that. oops.

 

What do we do in the future? Ignore model consensus for big snow? That same inherent flaw worked out fine in Jan 2011.

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What do we do in the future? Ignore model consensus for big snow? That same inherent flaw worked out fine in Jan 2011.

March is a bad month to hedge marginal success. That's the big lesson. January is the best month. Switch the setups and the results would have been less snow in 11 and more rain in 13.

Mar 2014 will skew expectations going forward if more threats come this season. We really suck at March snow on the means. I'm only hedging March success when a pv on roids is basically parked on us.

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