Fozz Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Great pics sparky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Brutal miss on temps by all numerical guidance. The -5C is the dew point, though. Thanks, got confused. Surface given the wind is NW it's seems possible that there was a greater difference between the surface and 850 than anticipated. But it's still has me very concerned we'll be looking at BS clown maps that show 1' for 6 days before the next monster dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 drip drip drip at least i still have undisturbed spots of 6" in places... stupid melting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 4.25" today. great few days for you.. what's avg for dec in those parts any idea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Many areas aside from downtown might pull off just enough to verify the low end. I was 3-7" in the grid and got 3.1" here in Clarksburg so I fit that bill perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Great post. I do think the 'business' would be better served by more cooperation across the spectrum.. and part of that is maybe using consistent forecasting methods. Obviously you're still going to end up with varied forecasts but perhaps some of the confusion would be mitigated. In the same vein gov definitely takes more responsibility in critical weather situations whether or not they are the primary vehicle for dissemination. That's not an easy position to be in and one that others probably can't fully understand. In that light I certainly understand some defensiveness. NWS definitely isn't in it for the clicks as much as others.. (well, at least before they dove into social media heh).. You definitely get the sense that a lot of employees do see themselves fully as public servants not in it for their own good at all... or at least their primary responsibility is to help fellow citizens. I think you questioned my innovation comment earlier -- was out walking around and browsing so hard to make any lengthy posts... I guess it depends on the type of innovation. On a big picture level I'm sure there has been plenty... when it comes to smaller ideas that can also be groundbreaking, likely not as much. You see it all across government where there just isn't room to think outside the box. Technological advances are more or less forcing that type of need upon everyone though so it might change. A simple example would be a place like CWG seeing a forecast "disaster" and quickly assembling to rectify it. Try doing that in government and it could take a decade. Slow and stead isn't always bad though. I have a big idea about the whole thing that I've been pondering for quite a while now but I am pretty lost as to go about it. I suppose I should be nicer to people who might help so they can figure it out for me lol. Great points Ian. No doubt it can become very time consuming to get changes pushed through within a government organization, especially if it involves the removal or alteration of a "legacy" product. We're learning. I guess we're all learning. I actually enjoy the amount of enthusiasm with weather here in the mid Atlantic. I like going through all the various forecasts, blogs, etc, including the CWG. This is the area where I grew up in the '80s, which at the time there didn't seem to be as much of a buzz regarding the weather (winter, severe, etc) that there is now. Certainly social media, blogs, and message board forums such as this helps to bring all of us together -- meteorologists, weather enthusiasts, or both . I like it. I think it's great that we can all share a little bit of our passion here on a message board (as well as frustrations, ha!) When I was in high school in northern VA back in the '80s, and said to everybody I wanted to study meteorology in college, I just remember getting weird looks. I guess meteorology wasn't the "in" thing back then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I am a huge CWG supporter, especially the way they forecast. But 20% - T-2", 50% - 2-5", and 30% 5"+ is not really a forecast to me.. I do appreciate the idea behind it. But painting a big swath of significant uncertainty over a large area on a map is not helpful. It conveys that there is a reasonable chance of getting a T - 8", and there is a 50% chance it willl fall somewhere in the middle. That doesn't really tell me much. I agree with conveying uncertainty, but there are better ways to do it...or just don't put out a map. agreed. it kinda comes off as indecisive in my opinion. when i want a forecast, i prefer to hear what they expect to occur and not that there's a chance of 0" to infinity. people know it's a forecast and that it can be wrong, but saying what you believe will occur is not only clearer but easier to respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 BTW officially 1.5" IMBY here in Crofton MD. Meh. I have to admit it looked really close to the 00Z NAM clown snowfall map that I saw before I left work last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I like CWG in the sense that I like Ian, snow. and Wes. The other dudes seem to just be media whore types or overly arrogant. I don't think that at all. Jason is one of the hardest working an passionate weather guys around. All the people in the group that I know do it because they like some or many facets of meteorology. When they pitch in to comment on posts, they aren't getting paid. It's because they want the site to be a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I don't think that at all. Jason is one of the hardest working an passionate weather guys around. All the people in the group that I know do it because they like some or many facets of meteorology. When they pitch in to comment on posts, they aren't getting paid. It's because they want the site to be a good one. I just don't like the media aspect of it, with the Facebook and Twitter sarcasm and blasts at NWS and other media outlets. I don't know anything about the workings of the organization. Perhaps that piece is separate from the generally awesome articles and analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 great few days for you.. what's avg for dec in those parts any idea? around 7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 1.7" on 0.31 precip. Brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I did end up with 2". Not the 4" I was hoping for but enough to look nice and play in with the kids. I took my kids to the sledding hill at the glenview mansion. There were 50-75 people there who could have cared less about "the busy". All smiles and fun. Made me laugh a bit for caring a little bit this morning. If anyone lives in or near rockville and hasn't been to the glenview sledding hill, I highly recommend it. It's a classic spot that I first went to in the 70's. Big open hill with a long ride and lots of room for everyone. Here's a pic of the side of the mansion, sledding hill, and my snow sculpture that I named Buster Dion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 agreed. it kinda comes off as indecisive in my opinion. when i want a forecast, i prefer to hear what they expect to occur and not that there's a chance of 0" to infinity. people know it's a forecast and that it can be wrong, but saying what you believe will occur is not only clearer but easier to respect. If I were running things my way, I would put down my forecast and back it up by reasoning, but also give my confidence level behind my forecast (low, medium, high) and include a paragraph on "what could go wrong" to further explain my confidence level. To me, just saying "here's my forecast, but my confidence level is low" isn't quite enough... I like to see the explanation behind the uncertainty, and methinks so will the public. Just my 2 cents, and this is not directed at anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Great pics everyone. Here's a couple from the morning and one from the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I did end up with 2". Not the 4" I was hoping for but enough to look nice and play in with the kids. I took my kids to the sledding hill at the glenview mansion. There were 50-75 people there who could have cared less about "the busy". All smiles and fun. Made me laugh a bit for caring a little bit this morning. If anyone lives in or near rockville and hasn't been to the glenview sledding hill, I highly recommend it. It's a classic spot that I first went to in the 70's. Big open hill with a long ride and lots of room for everyone. Here's a pic of the side of the mansion, sledding hill, and my snow sculpture that I named Buster Dion. buster dion.JPG Love the rabbit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Great pics everyone. Here's a couple from the morning and one from the afternoon. Awesome pictures. I especially like the 2nd one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Did the Precip max end up SE of DC as progged? Hoping we can take one model win out of this. We actually did not get much liquid down here, which was surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Just went below freezing and am at 31.9°F after a high of 33.8°F. Looks like half the snow and ice melted off of the trees. What's left can be seen as the sun sets behind them: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Awesome pictures. I especially like the 2nd one. Thanks. I really enjoy the pics from the DC area folks and hope they get many more chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Love all the pics, the snow paints such a pretty photo in these parts. Here a few here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Love all the pics, the snow paints such a pretty photo in these parts. Here a few here DSC_0119.JPG DSC_0125.JPG DSC_0128.JPG DSC_0134.JPG DSC_0146.JPG DSC_0152.JPG Dave, do your dogs stay outside or in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Dave, do your dogs stay outside or in? Both, they have run of the whole place. They are spoiled inside, but they do enjjoy spending time outside if the wx is nice like today or a cooler day in the spring/fall, they will spend all day outside if Im home or the wife is home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Both, they have run of the whole place. They are spoiled inside, but they do enjjoy spending time outside if the wx is nice like today or a cooler day in the spring/fall, they will spend all day outside if Im home or the wife is home Good to know. I thought once my 17 yr old Beagle finally goes I might get a husky. I know we (wife) would want him in the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Ended up with 5.5 inches here ...last measured on deck at 10 am. we were very fortunate up this way for both storms. we had a couple good bands come thru northwest carroll county that sort of hung around . currently 33 degs. some melting but still a heck of a base ....i imigane ski liberty roundtop are loving these past few weeks. looking forward to the next one . The first band up here between 6-7:30 was the best of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 great few days for you.. what's avg for dec in those parts any idea? around 7". Yeah, I'd say you are close to half of seasonal average in early December...great start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I did end up with 2". Not the 4" I was hoping for but enough to look nice and play in with the kids. I took my kids to the sledding hill at the glenview mansion. There were 50-75 people there who could have cared less about "the busy". All smiles and fun. Made me laugh a bit for caring a little bit this morning. If anyone lives in or near rockville and hasn't been to the glenview sledding hill, I highly recommend it. It's a classic spot that I first went to in the 70's. Big open hill with a long ride and lots of room for everyone. Here's a pic of the side of the mansion, sledding hill, and my snow sculpture that I named Buster Dion. glenview.JPG sledding.JPG buster dion.JPG The mansion brings back some great sledding party memories. For a while the nanny state prohibited sledding but it's back now. A relative is getting married there 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Just returned from the Hereford zone. Beautiful up that way. Pics later...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 1.7" on 0.31 precip. Brutal.Pretty close to 15:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I had 0.39 liquid, so basically 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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