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Dec 10 Morning Crusher (obs/nowcasting)

yoda

By yoda,
in Mid Atlantic

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snow.

snow.

Posted
Posted

It's not a CYA.... it's being honest. We give our best bet and then present alternative possibilities.  If someone thinks they have a better way to present the uncertainty, I'd love to hear it/see it.

 

 

How would you have done it???

 

 

let me think about that..I am actually at work :(

 

Again, I love the way you guys forecast...you are the best...I just didn't understand the value of the map that was put out....I DONT believe you did it for CYA purposes...just that it wasn't the best way to convey uncertainty in this instance...I think the wider range than normal does a good job on its own...perhaps don't use percentages for the boom/bust?...

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted

Put inside the beltway as it's own zone from now on for any storm that's modeled to start in the low 30's?

ETA: I mean to keep the places where you less confident cordoned out by themselves and express uncertainty there. There wasn't that much uncertainty that upper MoCo, Frederick County, Loudon, etc. would accumulate fine.... So maybe those zones don't need the percentages.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

And I'm not too familiar with LWX employees although I have several friends scattered across the country who don't hold that particular office in high regard -- I've been around some other offices especially during grad school and it's amazing how different the procedures from office to office can be so basically the performance of a given office seems to be highly correlated to the tone set by the management structure. 

 

I won't belabor the point as it's been mentioned before but it's frustrating to see how slowly the gears of bureaucracy moves in adapting to change and how that translates to the performance of a work force -- i work in a NOAA building as a visiting scientist (so not a fed) but just working has completely soured me towards a federal position compared to the freedom of my current position (university researcher). 

 

Agree almost entirely.  I figured I'd end up in gov someday but after I've seen it pretty close up from the sidelines I doubt I'd ever do that now.  As noted, it's a big gov issue more than any sector within it.  Though I think weather forecasting attracts a lot of strong personality types who are quite wedded to their own thoughts.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Put inside the beltway as it's own zone from now on for any storm that's modeled to start in the low 30's?

Might not be a bad idea.. Although, even within the city you have some big swings.  Probably had like .25" near the water and maybe 2" in Tenleytown.

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WxMan1

WxMan1

Posted
Posted

I know you guys do and I know the org looks at past mistakes and rectifies them.  There have also seemingly (from the outside) been a great number of positive changes in recent years.

 

Good conversation!  The biggest obstacle in our path -- both in the Gov and within the private sector -- is obviously consistency among the forecasts.  It's easier for me because I can just remind myself, even when working the winter weather desk, that "we're providing guidance...we're providing guidance...").  But certainly we're going to see differences not only between what the NWS and private sector mets put out, but also within the NWS themselves with the patch-quilt looking NDFD graphics.  I feel for the customer, because they're getting so many varying forecasts.  WPC does not broadcast it's internal snow/ice accumulations, because NDFD (the NWS offices) have the final call on the forecasts.  But we do advertise probabilities.  So one can see WPC's probabilities, LWX's probabilities, and the CWG's probabilities and potentially get 3 different forecasts for the DC metro area.  Add in the Wx Channel, local TV mets, AccuWx, DT, etc., and people around here are left to wonder who to believe. 

 

When FEMA and emergency managers come calling (and they will in the new era we are in currently, with the emphasis on enhanced impact-based decision support) -- they're going to wonder why there are conflicting forecasts for the same storm system. the same goes with media calls. I get just as many media calls (if not more) at WPC than I did when at a WFO, largely because they want a national perspective.  When our forecast guidance isn't in agreement with a WFO, then it's our responsibility as entities of the NWS to collaborate and try to work out the differences, so at the very least you get a more collaborated forecast within the NWS (from the national centers down to the WFO).  

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KAOS

KAOS

Posted
Posted

My observation is that this is yet another failed attempt at snow imby. And now I see the sun is coming out....so the tiny bit of snow, which doesn't even cover the blades of grass on my lawn, will be melted away very quickly.

 

Final snow tally.....not worth measuring.

 

Second fail in a single week.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Good conversation!  The biggest obstacle in our path -- both in the Gov and within the private sector -- is obviously consistency among the forecasts.  It's easier for me because I can just remind myself, even when working the winter weather desk, that "we're providing guidance...we're providing guidance...").  But certainly we're going to see differences not only between what the NWS and private sector mets put out, but also within the NWS themselves with the patch-quilt looking NDFD graphics.  I feel for the customer, because they're getting so many varying forecasts.  WPC does not broadcast it's internal snow/ice accumulations, because NDFD (the NWS offices) have the final call on the forecasts.  But we do advertise probabilities.  So one can see WPC's probabilities, LWX's probabilities, and the CWG's probabilities and potentially get 3 different forecasts for the DC metro area.  Add in the Wx Channel, local TV mets, AccuWx, DT, etc., and people around here are left to wonder who to believe. 

 

When FEMA and emergency managers come calling (and they will in the new era we are in currently, with the emphasis on enhanced impact-based decision support) -- they're going to wonder why there are conflicting forecasts for the same storm system. the same goes with media calls. I get just as many media calls (if not more) at WPC than I did when at a WFO, largely because they want a national perspective.  When our forecast guidance isn't in agreement with a WFO, then it's our responsibility as entities of the NWS to collaborate and try to work out the differences, so at the very least you get a more collaborated forecast within the NWS (from the national centers down to the WFO).  

Great post. I do think the 'business' would be better served by more cooperation across the spectrum.. and part of that is maybe using consistent forecasting methods. Obviously you're still going to end up with varied forecasts but perhaps some of the confusion would be mitigated. 

 

In the same vein gov definitely takes more responsibility in critical weather situations whether or not they are the primary vehicle for dissemination.  That's not an easy position to be in and one that others probably can't fully understand.  In that light I certainly understand some defensiveness.  NWS definitely isn't in it for the clicks as much as others.. (well, at least before they dove into social media heh).. You definitely get the sense that a lot of employees do see themselves fully as public servants not in it for their own good at all... or at least their primary responsibility is to help fellow citizens. 

 

I think you questioned my innovation comment earlier -- was out walking around and browsing so hard to make any lengthy posts... I guess it depends on the type of innovation.  On a big picture level I'm sure there has been plenty... when it comes to smaller ideas that can also be groundbreaking, likely not as much. You see it all across government where there just isn't room to think outside the box.  Technological advances are more or less forcing that type of need upon everyone though so it might change. A simple example would be a place like CWG seeing a forecast "disaster" and quickly assembling to rectify it.  Try doing that in government and it could take a decade. Slow and stead isn't always bad though.

 

I have a big idea about the whole thing that I've been pondering for quite a while now but I am pretty lost as to go about it.  I suppose I should be nicer to people who might help so they can figure it out for me lol.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I like CWG in the sense that I like Ian, snow. and Wes. The other dudes seem to just be media whore types or overly arrogant.

I don't think that's true at all. WaPo is a huge vehicle and things have changed after going there but even in a group of 20+ I can't think of anyone outwardly arrogant (and not just covering myself if others read).  Mostly just wx geeks like here.

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