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Dec 10 Morning Crusher (obs/nowcasting)


yoda

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1-1.75" looks like the range for lower parts of Fairfax and Montgomery County, so I guess many parts of DC "caught up" to the closer suburbs.

Right up at the Cathedral I get at least 1.75" everywhere. Fairly solid.
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With a bit of rounding, the CWG forecast actually verified for much of the area. It was too high east and inside the beltway, but we should have been ok with no more than 2". I know it's just a weird quirk over one inch, but I think people here would have been much less disappointed if the forecast was 1-4" instead of 2-5".

 

perhaps, though I thought 2-5" was too big of a range, esp when using boom/bust hedges....they either should have gone 2-4" or 3-5" or divided up the 2-5" area....imo....otherwise for purposes of verification, a 1" or 6" total is a just miss and fits into a pretty large hedge percentage...I thought it was too much of a cover all bases forecast

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Yeah, have good snow cover now. Let's lock this stuff in for a week. Hate to see it dripping at 32.5 degrees.

When I was shoveling it reminded me of the Feb 2006 storm..drip drip drip...I could just wait and it would have melted. Might mean more ice tomorrow.

I still say the fog last night messed everything up

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1.5" (I probably wound up getting a bit more than that before melting/compacting.  We had a period of rain before the final push came through).  Trees losing a lot of the snow that accumulated on them earlier.

 

With all things considered, I can't be too disappointed I guess considering its still mid-December.  Half the fun for me is tracking the storms and waking up early on 'storm day' to await the precip.  I just wish we could have gotten 3" with this storm.  

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that isn't surprising for a bad pattern, esp in december...most of our events are that way anyway..unfortunately :(

It's not and it is a bad pattern.  Those that are happy about the cold vortex in Canada don't get it. You can get nickle and dime events, especially mixed ones cause you get cold shots but you won't get an 8 incher and will have trouble getting a 6 incher in the city.  The valley folk and FDK are a different story.  They can do OK, for us,  we need a pattern change. 

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It's not and it is a bad pattern.  Those that are happy about the cold vortex in Canada don't get it. You can get nickle and dime events, especially mixed ones cause you get cold shots but you won't get an 8 incher and will have trouble getting a 6 incher in the city.  The valley folk and FDK are a different story.  They can do OK, for us,  we need a pattern change. 

 

Pretty much.   But there's no need for anyone in DC proper to be panicking.   If we're sitting here in mid February saying we need a pattern change...panic. 

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It's not and it is a bad pattern.  Those that are happy about the cold vortex in Canada don't get it. You can get nickle and dime events, especially mixed ones cause you get cold shots but you won't get an 8 incher and will have trouble getting a 6 incher in the city.  The valley folk and FDK are a different story.  They can do OK, for us,  we need a pattern change. 

 

 

as you said before...we pretty much want the near opposite of the pattern we have..pos height anomalies where we have neg ones and vice versa..the only real plus to the pattern has been the cold air...which let many of us down today

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It's not and it is a bad pattern.  Those that are happy about the cold vortex in Canada don't get it. You can get nickle and dime events, especially mixed ones cause you get cold shots but you won't get an 8 incher and will have trouble getting a 6 incher in the city.  The valley folk and FDK are a different story.  They can do OK, for us,  we need a pattern change. 

Agreed.  In '09-'10, location wasn't as much of an issue north of 38N.  Heck, I imagine the areas E-SE of DC did just as well with the big 3 storms given the degree of cyclogenesis off the coast.  But in flatter patterns, yes, the I-70 corridor and points north are going to do better.  I'll have to keep that in mind when my lease runs out and it's time to relocate :)

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It certainly was the winner once it caught up.  So much for it not being good inside of 24 hrs.  I always cringe a bit when CWG pokes the NWS as they have a tough job.  As a reporter that's Jason's job but as an ex-NWS guy I know how hard most of us agonize about forecasts.   I'm not sure what I would have done concerning a warning given the expected timing of the storm.     2 to 5 with a big burst at rush hour could have really messed things up.  The twitter statement criticizing offering scenarios is kind of lame. You need to somehow convey which parts of the forecast you are most certain about. 

 

I will say the high resolution model stuff while pretty offered little.  

 

Good points. It's always easy to second guess someone else's forecast after the fact and the NWS is a huge target for that. Always has been and always will be. Contrary to some belief, the NWS is not in competition with the private sector, even tho the private sector wants folks to believe that at times.    

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Good points. It's always easy to second guess someone else's forecast after the fact and the NWS is a huge target for that. Always has been and always will be. Contrary to some belief, the NWS is not in competition with the private sector, even tho the private sector wants folks to believe that at times.    

 

 

I am a huge CWG supporter, especially the way they forecast.  But 20% - T-2", 50% - 2-5", and 30% 5"+ is not really a forecast to me..  I do appreciate  the idea behind it.  But painting a big swath of significant uncertainty over a large area on a map is not helpful.  It conveys that there is a reasonable chance of getting a T - 8", and there is a 50% chance it willl fall somewhere in the middle.  That doesn't really tell me much.  I agree with conveying uncertainty, but there are better ways to do it...or just don't put out a map.

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I am a huge CWG supporter, especially the way they forecast.  But 20% - T-2", 50% - 2-5", and 30% 5"+ is not really a forecast to me..  I do appreciate  the idea behind it.  But painting a big swath of significant uncertainty over a large area on a map is not helpful.  It conveys that there is a reasonable chance of getting a T - 8", and there is a 50% chance it willl fall somewhere in the middle.  That doesn't really tell me much.  I agree with conveying uncertainty, but there are better ways to do it...or just don't put out a map.

 

I didn't know LWX was putting out probabilistic maps for SF. I'm not sure the public can gain much from those except confusion.   

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I didn't know LWX was putting out probabilistic maps for SF. I'm not sure the public can gain much from those except confusion.   

 

Capital Weather gang...not LWX...Putting out a nonstandard broad range is a little bit brazen itself...but then saying there is a 50% chance you miss the range...I don't get it...and it is very very rare I disagree with the way CWG forecasts

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