snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 There is also a weak sfc low to our west...not sure if that was progged, but certianly didnt help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 7 inches Sunday and 5 so far today. Best snow week in a couple of years here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Radar looks like one more little one is trying to form up. The last hurrah most likely. Maybe 2" then which is what I told myself I'd be happy with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 7 inches Sunday and 5 so far today. Best snow week in a couple of years here. yeah...you guys in Pennsylvania definitely did well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I don't think we always claim victory. I don't see this storm as a victory for anyone, maybe Tony Pann but all of us were too heavy unless this final burst over performs. Being able to make a nuanced forecast is one of the nice things about CWG. We have a better platform for making such forecasts than the NWS. They are more restricted and have to be more focused. I have lots of NWS friends and think by and large, they are hard working, good forecasts. I noticed when I came into work yesterday that our internal WWD graphic had a max of 2-3" across the DC-Balt area. The probabilities of >1" (60-70% and >2" (40-60%) gave me confidence of a 1-2" area-wide, but as with the last event I anticipated higher amounts. The problem was, as we've seen far too often, is that the soundings in the max QPF zone (> .40") were marginal at best, not only in the BL, but especially with the lack of lift and moisture not above -10C (or if it was there, it wasn't supposed to last very long, maybe a few hours). Meanwhile, lower QPF north, ah, but they've got the better microphysical profile aloft, with the lift in that -12 to -18C layer longer compared to areas to the south. So it's that give-and-take. QPF aside, we really need to have that deeper moisture/lift above the -10C. Otherwise there's likely going to be a screw job with fewer dendrites/smaller flakes and lower snowfall rates. You combine that with marginal BL temps, then you have big bust potential.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 This kinda reminds me of 12/26/10 debacle...I have had snow for about five hours, but just no real stickage comparatively. That event had that same issue. Goes back to the temps, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I noticed when I came into work yesterday that our internal WWD graphic had a max of 2-3" across the DC-Balt area. The probabilities of >1" (60-70% and >2" (40-60%) gave me confidence of a 1-2" area-wide, but as with the last event I anticipated higher amounts. The problem was, as we've seen far too often, is that the soundings in the max QPF zone (> .40") were marginal at best, not only in the BL, but especially with the lack of lift and moisture not above -10C (or if it was there, it wasn't supposed to last very long, maybe a few hours). Meanwhile, lower QPF north, ah, but they've got the better microphysical profile aloft, with the lift in that -12 to -18C layer longer compared to areas to the south. So it's that give-and-take. QPF aside, we really need to have that deeper moisture/lift above the -10C. Otherwise there's likely going to be a screw job with fewer dendrites/smaller flakes and lower snowfall rates. You combine that with marginal BL temps, then you have big bust potential.. you definitely called it..I bought in hook line and sinker into 3" amounts in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonickteam Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 sooooo, whats up with this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I actually didn't realize how bad of a poster you are until the last couple days Thanks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 ~4" of clumpy wet snow. I'll take it, packing down in a hurry, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 sooooo, whats up with this weekend? Better decisions hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Snow is done out here for me. Maybe just some more flurries. Finished at 4.1. Some decent driveway shovel piles for 12/10: View towards the East. Gorgeous in Winchester today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 you definitely called it..I bought in hook line and sinker into 3" amounts in the city We live, we learn....actually no we do. We'll get suckered in again. It's part of the risk that goes with the game. I had a nap..I'm good now I'm not going to pretend to be happy with 1" vs our expectations, but I'm not going to sit here and whine all day. And look at the GFS for Saturday! We're sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yep. I think a lot of the NOAA/NWS issues are government bureaucracy issues rather than personnel issues. There is very little room for innovation in gov given all the rules, restrictions and slowness of adapting. But, they are moving more toward forecasting like CWG does it would seem.. so for them to criticize that method is a little flimsy. Agreed. H(now W)PC's winter weather desk has been posting probabilistic winter weather forecasts for years now, with the PWPF graphics now expanding from the old 10/40/70 probabilities of 4/8/12" to a full suite of 0-100% probs of 1,2,4,6,8,12, and 18 inches, as well as amounts in percentile format. We're already testing the days 4-7 WWD probs internally, which we hope to roll out experimentally next season. I'm not sure I buy the argument that there's "little room for innovation." Things are moving along smoothly, and it certainly helps to have a guy like Louis Uccellini at the Director of the NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wesleyhtswx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Interesting comment, time to make an Excel chart, Ian. UHI would have more empirical support, but it may just be swamptown DC. Baltimore and Philly did just fine Sunday, Manhattan has had some good years over the last decade, and upper NW DC has fared better over these last few years of disappointing events than east of RCP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
09-10 analogy Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Just went sledding at Fort Reno. I could barely discern the high rises around Friendship Heights, so it's not like the rates have been feeble. We were up there for about 45 minutes and the snow was falling steadily and at times even with some gusto. But I'll be the umteenth person to say, it's just not sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Just about at 2" for the day. It's snowed for five hours, which is cool, I guess. Completely agree with the ratios business - this is a much heavier snow than I was expecting. I just lucked into some consistent snow the last couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Better decisions hopefully The government will be closed Saturday and Sunday, as a precaution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 3.6" with light snow and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 We live, we learn....actually no we do. We'll get suckered in again. It's part of the risk that goes with the game. I had a nap..I'm good now I'm not going to pretend to be happy with 1" vs our expectations, but I'm not going to sit here and whine all day. And look at the GFS for Saturday! We're sick. ..well at least I knew 10 minutes in that it was a bust...I just hoped for an inch...didnt even get there...This bust doesnt really bother me,...It was a models bust....though the euro told us to be cautious..I shouldn't have ignored the bad patttern and climo, and I would have realized this was probably a 1-2" event for the city (still would have busted) and more in the favored locatioons.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 you definitely called it..I bought in hook line and sinker into 3" amounts in the city I was still expecting at least 1-2" in the city, so that in of itself was a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Snow seems to be winding down unless a final band comes through later. I have 4.25 from this event, 8.75 from Sunday's event...13 inches is noteworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Snow is done out here for me. Maybe just some more flurries. Finished at 4.1. Some decent driveway shovel piles for 12/10: 20131210_111349.jpg 20131210_111355.jpg View toward the East. Gorgeous in Winchester today. 20131210_111409.jpg Sweet pics there. Im glad I wasnt the only one thinking it is nice to have some snow walls along the sidewalk already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I was still expecting at least 1-2" in the city, so that in of itself was a bust well parts got 1"+..just not downtown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 ..well at least I knew 10 minutes in that it was a bust...I just hoped for an inch...didnt even get there...This bust doesnt really bother me,...It was a models bust....though the euro told us to be cautious..I shouldn't have ignored the bad patttern and climo, and I would have realized this was probably a 1-2" event for the city (still would have busted) and more in the favored locatioons.. I mean, its a bust and disappointing (storm wise). It's not unreasonable, despite rumblings to the contrary, to be disappointed in a storm vs expectations of it. But it's Dec. 10, winter has just barely begun...in the overall scheme of things nobody can be reasonably disappointed in winter overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I've decided I'm not quite done with the snow http://beta.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Metro.aspx?animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Snow seems to be winding down unless a final band comes through later. I have 4.25 from this event, 8.75 from Sunday's event...13 inches is noteworthy. Ended up with exactly 5 here. got 7.5 on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 last hurrah http://www.marylandwx.com/radar/klwxmetro_br.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I mean, its a bust and disappointing (storm wise). It's not unreasonable, despite rumblings to the contrary, to be disappointed in a storm vs expectations of it. But it's Dec. 10, winter has just barely begun...in the overall scheme of things nobody can be reasonably disappointed in winter overall. Oh..I am disappointed to be sure...But I am mostly over it...It isn't like the "trauma" of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Still looks kind of juiced Mitch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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