snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It is from a meteorological public relations standpoint. People here who follow systems closely and have for years knew of the risks of a bust. I tried to convey how we might bust in my article but I think to the general public, they hear the NWS, TV or CWG forecasts and will consider it a bust. It's now snowing pretty hard. At least I'll have white ground. yes..absolutely..though I am not convinced that in 1950 the storm would have performed any differently...some of the 0.3" events we see way back were probably storms just like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Nice band setting up. Got more snow in the last 20 minutes than the previous 4 hours. Approaching an inch now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Seems to me the temps were the bust. Last check I was at 34. My high was supposed to be 29. It didn't get to 29 for the low. Be interesting to see the precip totals. I'll bet that didn't bust badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Took my "Jebwalk" - Beautiful - took a lot of pictures, below is one. This was a very wet snow. Still not to 3" here in Purcellville, but I KNOW I have nothing to complain about! Down right beautiful out there. Sorry to all that are missing this, and I am not sharing to make it painful, but being the snow weenie I am, I know it makes me sick when it is not IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It certainly was the winner once it caught up. So much for it not being good inside of 24 hrs. I always cringe a bit when CWG pokes the NWS as they have a tough job. As a reporter that's Jason's job but as an ex-NWS guy I know how hard most of us agonize about forecasts. I'm not sure what I would have done concerning a warning given the expected timing of the storm. 2 to 5 with a big burst at rush hour could have really messed things up. The twitter statement criticizing offering scenarios is kind of lame. You need to somehow convey which parts of the forecast you are most certain about. I will say the high resolution model stuff while pretty offered little. Yeah, I agree. Most of the best mets I've ever met come from NWS (now I can also annoy the private sector guys!). In the end I think we finish this without it being all that big of a "bust". It was good we held with the 2-5" after some discussion of raising it last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Good post wes. CWG needs to get off their high arrogant horse and leave NWS alone. I also think it's easy for CWG to claim victory when they post such huge nuanced forecast. I don't think we always claim victory. I don't see this storm as a victory for anyone, maybe Tony Pann but all of us were too heavy unless this final burst over performs. Being able to make a nuanced forecast is one of the nice things about CWG. We have a better platform for making such forecasts than the NWS. They are more restricted and have to be more focused. I have lots of NWS friends and think by and large, they are hard working, good forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWX Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Some pics.... Front yard.... Backyard..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I don't think we always claim victory. I don't see this storm as a victory for anyone, maybe Tony Pann but all of us were too heavy unless this final burst over performs. Being able to make a nuanced forecast is one of the nice things about CWG. We have a better platform for making such forecasts than the NWS. They are more restricted and have to be more focused. I have lots of NWS friends and think by and large, they are hard working, good forecasts. Yep. I think a lot of the NOAA/NWS issues are government bureaucracy issues rather than personnel issues. There is very little room for innovation in gov given all the rules, restrictions and slowness of adapting. But, they are moving more toward forecasting like CWG does it would seem.. so for them to criticize that method is a little flimsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Coming down fairly decent now. Stuck at 33.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Maybe we've just reached a tipping point with UHI and climate change in and around the cities. Every non KU event is an elevation event now. Interesting comment, time to make an Excel chart, Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 i think the storm was fine, we've had precip for the last several hours, we just were a couple degrees too warm. it's a similar thing with freezing rain. yea 32 is the freezing point, but it sure is better to have it be about 30 degrees if you want stickage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Well, sun poking thru the clouds now........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 little superband east of the city. brightening here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Another thing that threw us all off last night was talking about 12:1 ratios. Temps took that idea totally off the table. 8-10:1 at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I've had a little over 4 inches in a little over 4 hours not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 For posterity I'm catching up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Another thing that threw us all off last night was talking about 12:1 ratios. Temps took that idea totally off the table. 8-10:1 at best. people should listen to me more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 little superband east of the city. brightening here. WUNIDS_map.gif The super band is awesome. Best snow rates since 2011. If only we had 4 hours of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 All done it looks like. 3" is the end of this storm. A very nice winter so far for me at least. Hopefully all of us will be able to cash in on a decent event soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 up to 3 inches now, still snowing, total is within the forecasted range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It is from a meteorological public relations standpoint. People here who follow systems closely and have for years knew of the risks of a bust. I tried to convey how we might bust in my article but I think to the general public, they hear the NWS, TV or CWG forecasts and will consider it a bust. It's now snowing pretty hard. At least I'll have white ground. The good news is that today was the most productive government day since the last closing. It's a shame people still don't understand that weather is still largely unpredictable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 1.5", so we've tacked on a little bit in the last hour. A few dozen kids sledding behind on the hill behind the house. At least they are enjoying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yeah, I agree. Most of the best mets I've ever met come from NWS (now I can also annoy the private sector guys!). In the end I think we finish this without it being all that big of a "bust". It was good we held with the 2-5" after some discussion of raising it last night. That should include the forums as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Looks like it is done here. About 2" in Damascus. Thanks to all of the talented and knowledgeable posters who make this board an educational and fun place to hang out. My regrets to those who did not do as well as they hoped...maybe next time. Now out to driveway to clear snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Been sitting at 29.7F for the last 30 minutes. Just measured 3" here in Clarksburg. Here's some pix.Notice the ice still on the branches in the first one. Every time a breeze happens, the entire forest creaks and groans.My front yard analog rain gauge.The roads accumulated immediately this morning since the freezing rain yesterday washed away any salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJB Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 8 inches Sunday, 4 more today. I'll take a foot by December 10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The super band is awesome. Best snow rates since 2011. If only we had 4 hours of this. yeah...my mom mentioned how hard it was snowing in Old Town...maybe it will bump up DCA's totals? ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The super band is awesome. Best snow rates since 2011. If only we had 4 hours of this. I was out fixing a Xmas light string that went out and it was nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Here's my latest for whomever cares. Measured 1-1.25" snow so I am going with the higher amount. Still lt snow so maybe 1.5" when all is said and done. I got to shovel legit snow so even though I didn't get a lot I'm happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I was out fixing a Xmas light string that went out and it was nice Radar looks like one more little one is trying to form up. The last hurrah most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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