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Dec 10 Morning Crusher (obs/nowcasting)


yoda

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It is from a meteorological public relations standpoint.  People here who follow systems closely and have for years knew of the risks of a bust.  I tried to convey how we might bust in my article but I think to the general public, they hear the NWS, TV or CWG forecasts and will consider it a bust.  It's now snowing pretty hard. At least I'll have white ground. 

 

yes..absolutely..though I am not convinced that in 1950 the storm would have performed any differently...some of the 0.3" events we see way back were probably storms just like this

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Took my "Jebwalk" - Beautiful - took a lot of pictures, below is one. This was a very wet snow. Still not to 3" here in Purcellville, but I KNOW I have nothing to complain about! Down right beautiful out there. Sorry to all that are missing this, and I am not sharing to make it painful, but being the snow weenie I am, I know it makes me sick when it is not IMBY. 

 

 

 

 

post-1604-0-85473200-1386690158_thumb.jp

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It certainly was the winner once it caught up.  So much for it not being good inside of 24 hrs.  I always cringe a bit when CWG pokes the NWS as they have a tough job.  As a reporter that's Jason's job but as an ex-NWS guy I know how hard most of us agonize about forecasts.   I'm not sure what I would have done concerning a warning given the expected timing of the storm.     2 to 5 with a big burst at rush hour could have really messed things up.  The twitter statement criticizing offering scenarios is kind of lame. You need to somehow convey which parts of the forecast you are most certain about. 

 

I will say the high resolution model stuff while pretty offered little.  

 

Yeah, I agree.  Most of the best mets I've ever met come from NWS (now I can also annoy the private sector guys!).  In the end I think we finish this without it being all that big of a "bust".  It was good we held with the 2-5" after some discussion of raising it last night. 

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Good post wes.  CWG needs to get off their high arrogant horse and leave NWS alone.

 

I also think it's easy for CWG to claim victory when they post such huge nuanced forecast.

I don't think we always claim victory.  I don't see this storm as a victory for anyone,  maybe Tony Pann but all of us were too heavy unless this final burst over performs.  Being able to make a nuanced forecast is one of the nice things about CWG.  We have a better platform for making such forecasts than the NWS.  They are more restricted and have to be more focused.  I have lots of NWS friends and think by and large, they are hard working, good forecasts. 

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I don't think we always claim victory.  I don't see this storm as a victory for anyone,  maybe Tony Pann but all of us were too heavy unless this final burst over performs.  Being able to make a nuanced forecast is one of the nice things about CWG.  We have a better platform for making such forecasts than the NWS.  They are more restricted and have to be more focused.  I have lots of NWS friends and think by and large, they are hard working, good forecasts. 

Yep. I think a lot of the NOAA/NWS issues are government bureaucracy issues rather than personnel issues. There is very little room for innovation in gov given all the rules, restrictions and slowness of adapting.  But, they are moving more toward forecasting like CWG does it would seem.. so for them to criticize that method is a little flimsy.

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It is from a meteorological public relations standpoint.  People here who follow systems closely and have for years knew of the risks of a bust.  I tried to convey how we might bust in my article but I think to the general public, they hear the NWS, TV or CWG forecasts and will consider it a bust.  It's now snowing pretty hard. At least I'll have white ground. 

 

The good news is that today was the most productive government day since the last closing.

 

It's a shame people still don't understand that weather is still largely unpredictable.

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Yeah, I agree.  Most of the best mets I've ever met come from NWS (now I can also annoy the private sector guys!).  In the end I think we finish this without it being all that big of a "bust".  It was good we held with the 2-5" after some discussion of raising it last night. 

That should include the forums as well. ;)

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Looks like it is done here. About 2" in Damascus. Thanks to all of the talented and knowledgeable posters who make this board an educational and fun place to hang out. My regrets to those who did not do as well as they hoped...maybe next time. Now out to driveway to clear snow.

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Been sitting at 29.7F for the last 30 minutes. Just measured 3" here in Clarksburg. Here's some pix.

Notice the ice still on the branches in the first one. Every time a breeze happens, the entire forest creaks and groans.
post-109-0-54260500-1386691020_thumb.jpg

My front yard analog rain gauge.
post-109-0-38168900-1386691156_thumb.jpg

The roads accumulated immediately this morning since the freezing rain yesterday washed away any salt.
post-109-0-14044700-1386691260_thumb.jpg

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