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Dec 10 Morning Crusher (obs/nowcasting)


yoda

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He's a whiner whoever he is.  He used to follow me on Twitter and stopped after I mad some comment about t-storm warnings locally.  Again I LOVE NOAA/NWS, but so many thin skinned folks over there.  Forecasting is a competition and fraught with disagreements.  I know it probably sucks that they can't fire back like we do but no need to be all angry...

 

Thin skinned folks are frustrating.....

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Thin skinned folks are frustrating.....

Criticism is good for people. It's not a NOAA problem it's a federal gov problem. ;)

 

Anyway -- I'm done, probably added a few more to the dislike me column.

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He's a whiner whoever he is.  He used to follow me on Twitter and stopped after I mad some comment about t-storm warnings locally.  Again I LOVE NOAA/NWS, but so many thin skinned folks over there.  Forecasting is a competition and fraught with disagreements.  I know it probably sucks that they can't fire back like we do but no need to be all angry...

 

 

No, I get it.  When I was over at NWS last year you'd be surprised at how often CWG was mentioned.  Especially some of the critical posts about Sandy and stuff like that.  There's a lot of stuff that agencies like NWS can't come out and say that people aren't privy to and some of the criticism isn't fair at times, it probably wears on them just as much as missing out on snow wears on us.

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Yes, the margins I think includes these types of events where we expect 3-4" and get 1-2".  I am trying to keep things in perspective given the date but it does seem like we keep replaying the same scenarios.  Though in this case and snowquester it's probably partly rates and length of rates yet I'm not sure that would have even solved the problem here. Maybe.

You know what sad, if you had showed me the surface map being forecast and the RH without the model precipitation forecast I would have said and inch or two at best, there was no real warm advection at 850 and the forcing was mostly from the entrance region of an upper level jet but it's curvature was not even optimal.  The NAM and GFS being so consistent was tough to get away from especially for a rush hour event with the models having the surface temp below freezing. Dan Stillmand had a better feel for it than me. 

 

At least I'm seeing a few flakes again

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Moderate snow, best I have seen in a long time. Maybe get me to my inch.

There was no way to not bust on this as every indicator showed decent measurable snow for DC metro. Forecasters should not hold their head down. This was a fluke.

Agreed-- I don't know how it would have been possible to actually out out a forecast for less than 2".
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No, I get it.  When I was over at NWS last year you'd be surprised at how often CWG was mentioned.  Especially some of the critical posts about Sandy and stuff like that.  There's a lot of stuff that agencies like NWS can't come out and say that people aren't privy to and some of the criticism isn't fair at times, it probably wears on them just as much as missing out on snow wears on us.

I do think it might be worth trying to not call others out as much.  We're better off when we all work together. LWX in particular has offered a lot of great stuff over the years at request and they do a solid job overall.  I can certainly understand frustration given the roles. But, sadly, it is sort of media's job to poke the beast.

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He's a whiner whoever he is.  He used to follow me on Twitter and stopped after I mad some comment about t-storm warnings locally.  Again I LOVE NOAA/NWS, but so many thin skinned folks over there.  Forecasting is a competition and fraught with disagreements.  I know it probably sucks that they can't fire back like we do but no need to be all angry...

Way too much arrogance and way too many egos lead to a nasty competitiveness. So many quality weather people can really lay it on but can't take it. You would think the degree of difficulty in this profession would humble most, but this simply is not the case. Look at all of the quality mets and other posters that don't participate anymore because of stupid and childish behavior. If you can't handle failure this is not the field for you unless you go into the programming side of things.

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You know what sad, if you had showed me the surface map being forecast and the RH without the model precipitation forecast I would have said and inch or two at best, there was no real warm advection at 850 and the forcing was mostly from the entrance region of an upper level jet but it's curvature was not even optimal.  The NAM and GFS being so consistent was tough to get away from especially for a rush hour event with the models having the surface temp below freezing. Dan Stillmand had a better feel for it than me. 

 

At least I'm seeing a few flakes again

I keep wondering if we all are relying too much on models these days as they get better. Not that we shouldn't use them or anything but maybe we tend to ignore more bad signs when the models are good.  That said, if you just forecast off the Euro you're probably doing pretty well. IT took it a while to catch up this go but once it got there it probably had the best forecast. 

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I do think it might be worth trying to not call others out as much.  We're better off when we all work together. LWX in particular has offered a lot of great stuff over the years at request and they do a solid job overall.  I can certainly understand frustration given the roles. But, sadly, it is sort of media's job to poke the beast.

Agreed,  sometimes I cringe at some of the more critical things.  But, I realize that's part of the job and understand the reasoning behind it. 

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