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Dec 10 Morning Crusher (obs/nowcasting)


yoda

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A bit off-topic, sorry.

 

It seems really strange that my school (GMU) has already announced their operating status for tomorrow--a delayed opening at 10:30am. Snow may be light at that time, but people traveling to class for their finals means they'd be on the road between 8:30am and 10am when things will be bad. To announce tonight might mean that if they change tomorrow morning, some people won't recheck since they saw the email and text messages from the school this evening.

 

Unless it's a Jan 96/PDII/Feb 10 multi-day closure storm, there's no disadvantages to announcing around 4 or 5am, and only a downside in announcing early.

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DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-
SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-PAGE-MADISON-
RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-CULPEPER-
PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-
SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...
BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...
MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON
854 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
3 AM TO 2 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION MAY
  START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE DAWN CHANGING TO ALL
  SNOW AFTER DAYBREAK.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY LASTING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY
  AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE TUESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM HEAVY
  SNOW. THE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH TUESDAY WITH THE
  POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR.
 

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DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-

SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-PAGE-MADISON-

RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-CULPEPER-

PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-

SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...

BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...

MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON

854 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM

3 AM TO 2 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER

IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION MAY

  START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE DAWN CHANGING TO ALL

  SNOW AFTER DAYBREAK.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY LASTING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY

  AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE TUESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM HEAVY

  SNOW. THE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH TUESDAY WITH THE

  POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR.

 

haha, they need to make up their minds!

It is borderline....I guess the 'timing' finally won out.

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looking at the radar i'm not too surprised the precip max is around dc and just south.  i don't actually see this being one that comes north, but i'm guessing.  actually, the last storm i thought the radar trends looked pretty good for northern md so wasn't too surprised with that outcome.

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looking at the radar i'm not too surprised the precip max is around dc and just south.  i don't actually see this being one that comes north, but i'm guessing.  actually, the last storm i thought the radar trends looked pretty good for northern md so wasn't too surprised with that outcome.

If a nice band sets up, that person could get 6 or 7". Other than that, there is a widespread ~4" of snow from mason-Dixon line all the way down to southern MD and EZF. This is different from yesterday where Inside the beltway was 1", Rockville was 3", and Frederick was 8".

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If a nice band sets up, that person could get 6 or 7". Other than that, there is a widespread ~4" of snow from mason-Dixon line all the way down to southern MD and EZF. This is different from yesterday where Inside the beltway was 1", Rockville was 3", and Frederick was 8".

 

yea i just don't see this one turning into a penn special or anything like that.  i kinda like my spot being close to dc right now.

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DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-

SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-PAGE-MADISON-

RAPPAHANNOCK-LOUDOUN-CULPEPER-

PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-

ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-

SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...

BALTIMORE...ANNAPOLIS...LEESBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...

MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...WARRENTON

854 PM EST MON DEC 9 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM

3 AM TO 2 PM EST TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER

IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. PRECIPITATION MAY

  START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET BEFORE DAWN CHANGING TO ALL

  SNOW AFTER DAYBREAK.

* ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES.

* TIMING...AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY LASTING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY

  AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE TUESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM HEAVY

  SNOW. THE SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH TUESDAY WITH THE

  POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR.

 

The great thing is, I have a 1 inch ice and sleet base. This snow is going to stick from flake 1, instantaneous accumulation. The roads should whiten nicely as well. No dry air to overcome and the ground is much colder now. This is excellent! :)

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