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Dec 10 Morning Crusher (obs/nowcasting)


yoda

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Maybe we've just reached a tipping point with UHI and climate change in and around the cities. Every non KU event is an elevation event now.

As the author of that CWG article, I keep thinking to myself, what other factors could be doing this to us.  I wonder how an expanding UHI may impact orographic effects from the valleys on the leeward side of the Apps.  Any thoughts?

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Maybe we've just reached a tipping point with UHI and climate change in and around the cities. Every non KU event is an elevation event now.

 

Seems like it. Something you said a year ago or something really stuck in my head. We're losing it on the margins. It was in reference to the season start/end but it's also kinda clear (or terrible luck) that the margin also includes marginal events. It's one thing when DC gets 2 and JYO gets 4-5. But it's another thing when DC keeps getting .4-.5

 

Another thing on the tipping point is our sanity ;)

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Maybe we've just reached a tipping point with UHI and climate change in and around the cities. Every non KU event is an elevation event now.

 

I think even the Commutageddon event in Jan. 2011 was so-so in the District proper, if I'm not mistaken (and DCA got ~5")?  Not that it was a bust by any means, but not nearly what it was as you went only a tad farther to the north and west.  I got 8" of heavy, wet snow that fell in about 6 hours where I'm at, but heard it was a lot more "watery" (for lack of better wording) downtown.

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Looks to be over in Germantown with about 2 inches.  Yes, a disappointment compared to the forecast but with the old snow left from Sunday's 4" underneath, it looks pretty wintry.

 

Man I feel for Wes down in Calvert!  I grew up just a few miles from there (specifically, 4 miles south of Dunkirk) and I know painfully well what it's like to be a snow hound living down there.  When I got a DC-based job, I made a bee-line for the NW burbs.

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DC winters are just not what they used to be anymore.  Take this storm and put it somewhere in the 70s and 80's, and the WSW would have verified.  Twice in a row, March 6 and today of this year, temps ended up being too warm and got too little snow despite good banding and radar returns.

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As the author of that CWG article, I keep thinking to myself, what other factors could be doing this to us.  I wonder how an expanding UHI may impact orographic effects from the valleys on the leeward side of the Apps.  Any thoughts?

Well it is still pretty early and elevation is almost always favored but this still feels a whole lot like what we've seen in recent years on various dates in the calendar.  In a lot of these storms the difference is a few degrees.. so it seems possible there is either a UHI influence or otherwise. Hard to say anything definitively.

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Seems like it. Something you said a year ago or something really stuck in my head. We're losing it on the margins. It was in reference to the season start/end but it's also kinda clear (or terrible luck) that the margin also includes marginal events. It's one thing when DC gets 2 and JYO gets 4-5. But it's another thing when DC keeps getting .4-.5

 

Another thing on the tipping point is our sanity ;)

 

Yes, the margins I think includes these types of events where we expect 3-4" and get 1-2".  I am trying to keep things in perspective given the date but it does seem like we keep replaying the same scenarios.  Though in this case and snowquester it's probably partly rates and length of rates yet I'm not sure that would have even solved the problem here. Maybe.

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Well it is still pretty early and elevation is almost always favored but this still feels a whole lot like what we've seen in recent years on various dates in the calendar. In a lot of these storms the difference is a few degrees.. so it seems possible there is either a UHI influence or otherwise. Hard to say anything definitively.

Every single model had the metro area below freezing at the surface by now, though. This temp bust will be interesting to examine-- temps were nailed by the models for the most part in the Sunday event, even running a bit warm.

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He's not with lwx

He's a whiner whoever he is.  He used to follow me on Twitter and stopped after I mad some comment about t-storm warnings locally.  Again I LOVE NOAA/NWS, but so many thin skinned folks over there.  Forecasting is a competition and fraught with disagreements.  I know it probably sucks that they can't fire back like we do but no need to be all angry...

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