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Dec 10 Morning Crusher (obs/nowcasting)


yoda

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It now seems more and more than small- to medium events (1-3) (4-6) just don't work out in DC anymore. Seems you need a dynamic coastal beast with every single factor stacked in your favor to get anything more than a coating. One thing not in place and DC gets nothing. The forecasters around here need to seriously ask themselves why DC proper gets so little snow.

I blame temps for this one. Couple degrees makes all the difference around here.

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How soon, if at all, before they downgrade the WSW to a WWA?

Don't think they will.  Some areas out west are reporting over 5". But for the locations closer to DC, even thought warning criteria may not be met, still dangerous to go out there and walk/drive in many spots. Since the NWS mission is public safety, reducing when rates are heavy may have people think it's ok to go out. Besides, will probably drop everything in the next few hours, might as well just clear the whole CWA at noon.

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Still snowing decently in Derwood... been consistent for about 2 hours. We're somewhere between 1-2 inches. I'll go out an measure and take pics soon. Not a total bust IMBY but still can't help feeling disappointed....

We're in the suburbs where it's sticking fine. It's still going to snow for a couple of hours at least... Why assume your total now?

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"WHILE MAX LIFT NOT EXACTLY IN DENTRITIC GROWTH ZONE..." This was my concern all along, again, especially south and east of the district. The soundings generally don't lie when there's good model consensus with the thermal, lift, and moisture profiles within the short term. I thought the heavier bands would be north again, though this time around maybe not as far north as I70.

Anyway, it's awfully tough to get even a 10-1 ratio with .40 liquid when you're above freezing in the sfc layer while at the same time your best lift is below the -12 to -18 layer during much of the event.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

810 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

-- Changed Discussion --

...UPDATE TO DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE...THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE NOT CHANGED. THE HEAVIEST IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... LTST SFC ANALY DEPICT LOPRES IN WRN VA/NC. LOW A SFC REFLECTION OF VORTMAX/RRQ OF 180 KT UPR JET. ASSOCD PCPN HAS RAPIDLY BEEN FILLING IN ACRS THE OH/TN VLYS...AND IS ON THE WRN DOORSTEP ATTM. GDNC IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WL BE TRACKING ACRS CWFA...PRIMARILY BTWN 12-18 UTC. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS PCPN WL PROVIDE ENUF MIXING TO ERODE FOG CURRENTLY IN PLACE. A STRIP OF DENSE FOG RESIDES FM CHO-IAD. TRENDS SINCE 04Z INDICATE A SLOW IMPRVMNT HAS BEGUN...AND HV ALLWD DENSE FOG ADVY TO EXPIRE AT 08Z. AFTER THAT...VSBY STILL WONT BE GREAT...AS FOG RESTRICTIONS WL BE REPLACED W/ SNOW RESTRICTIONS. THE FEATURES RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW LOOK TO BE PROGRESSIVE. BUT...LIFT VIGOROUS AND H7-5 F-VECTORS DO POINT TO MESOSCALE BANDING. WHILE MAX LIFT NOT EXACTLY IN DENTRITIC GROWTH ZONE...A THIRD TO HALF INCH LIQ QPF SUGGESTS THAT WRNG CRITERIA THREATENED. CANNOT PLACE EXACTLY WHERE THE BANDS WL SET UP /LTST HRRR AND WRF RUNS SUGGEST CHO-DCA-MTN/...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT LCLLY HIER AMTS PSBL. GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE BAND MAY BE NW OF CURRENT 3-6 INCH FCST STRIPE. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES TWD EZF AND SRN MD DUE TO LOWER SNW RATIOS AND MDL SNDGS SUGGESTING PL WL MIX IN. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WL REDUCE SNW TTLS. IN LIGHT OF 00Z GDNC...POTL FOR HIER TTLS...AND NOT CERTAIN BANDS WL BE W/IN PREVIOUS WRNG AREA...HV OPTED TO WIDEN WRNG AREA TO INCL LUA-FDK ON THE NW AND CHO- OMH ON THE SE. TIME FRAME NOT EXTENDED AS GDNC STILL PRETTY INSISTENT THAT SNOW SHUD BE ENDING BY 18Z. MAY EVEN SEE BRIGHTENING SKIES BEFORE SUNSET. ONCE SNOW STARTS...TEMPS CHGG LTL...AND FCST MAXT REFLECTS THAT.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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