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Dec 10 Morning Crusher (obs/nowcasting)


yoda

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Looks like DC is about to get their best shot of the day shortly. fwiw

Picking back up in Rockville. Should have enough to hit the sledding hill in an hour or 2. Kids don't sweat the details like we do. lol

My kids just want enough to sled. My grass isn't even covered enough

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Makes sense. I mean I'm not going to complain about a day off too much but if this keeps happening they are going to need to figure out a new option. 

 

This has been happening for decades.  It is what it is.  They make the best decision they can with the information they have available to them at the time.  Given the relative scarcity of snowstorms around here, it makes sense to be cautious instead of sending hundreds of thousands of people out on roads that were just about universally predicted to be in poor condition.

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Seriously---models had this going until 1:00?   No chance.  Anyway--just over an inch here.  Steady, but Sunday was much heavier  Skies seems to be darkening a bit.  Maybe I have an incoming "death / rockband". ;-) 

 

PS--It's only Dec 10!  DC folks--plenty of time.

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This has been happening for decades.  It is what it is.  They make the best decision they can with the information they have available to them at the time.  Given the relative scarcity of snowstorms around here, it makes sense to be cautious instead of sending hundreds of thousands of people out on roads that were just about universally predicted to be in poor condition.

 

i think in general if you had no issue with the closure before the event, it's pointless to play the role of the critic now -- it's a tough decision to make, may not look justified in the urban center but with the number of commuters and a gentle reminder that not all dc federal facilities are downtown i think it was the safe call to make -- and with regards to telework, it'll continue to expand and maybe mitigate these type of issues in the future but even in my office where people routinely telework, the infrastructure (VPN) only supports 25 concurrent connections in a branch with over 100+ scientists so the internal infrastructure doesn't help especially in the case of unscheduled telework by OPM.

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
810 AM EST TUE DEC 10 2013

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
 

-- Changed Discussion --

...UPDATE TO DOWNGRADE THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE...THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES HAVE NOT CHANGED. THE HEAVIEST IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... LTST SFC ANALY DEPICT LOPRES IN WRN VA/NC. LOW A SFC REFLECTION OF VORTMAX/RRQ OF 180 KT UPR JET. ASSOCD PCPN HAS RAPIDLY BEEN FILLING IN ACRS THE OH/TN VLYS...AND IS ON THE WRN DOORSTEP ATTM. GDNC IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WL BE TRACKING ACRS CWFA...PRIMARILY BTWN 12-18 UTC. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS PCPN WL PROVIDE ENUF MIXING TO ERODE FOG CURRENTLY IN PLACE. A STRIP OF DENSE FOG RESIDES FM CHO-IAD. TRENDS SINCE 04Z INDICATE A SLOW IMPRVMNT HAS BEGUN...AND HV ALLWD DENSE FOG ADVY TO EXPIRE AT 08Z. AFTER THAT...VSBY STILL WONT BE GREAT...AS FOG RESTRICTIONS WL BE REPLACED W/ SNOW RESTRICTIONS. THE FEATURES RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW LOOK TO BE PROGRESSIVE. BUT...LIFT VIGOROUS AND H7-5 F-VECTORS DO POINT TO MESOSCALE BANDING. WHILE MAX LIFT NOT EXACTLY IN DENTRITIC GROWTH ZONE...A THIRD TO HALF INCH LIQ QPF SUGGESTS THAT WRNG CRITERIA THREATENED. CANNOT PLACE EXACTLY WHERE THE BANDS WL SET UP /LTST HRRR AND WRF RUNS SUGGEST CHO-DCA-MTN/...FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT LCLLY HIER AMTS PSBL. GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE BAND MAY BE NW OF CURRENT 3-6 INCH FCST STRIPE. CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES TWD EZF AND SRN MD DUE TO LOWER SNW RATIOS AND MDL SNDGS SUGGESTING PL WL MIX IN. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WL REDUCE SNW TTLS. IN LIGHT OF 00Z GDNC...POTL FOR HIER TTLS...AND NOT CERTAIN BANDS WL BE W/IN PREVIOUS WRNG AREA...HV OPTED TO WIDEN WRNG AREA TO INCL LUA-FDK ON THE NW AND CHO- OMH ON THE SE. TIME FRAME NOT EXTENDED AS GDNC STILL PRETTY INSISTENT THAT SNOW SHUD BE ENDING BY 18Z. MAY EVEN SEE BRIGHTENING SKIES BEFORE SUNSET. ONCE SNOW STARTS...TEMPS CHGG LTL...AND FCST MAXT REFLECTS THAT.

-- End Changed Discussion --

 

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It now seems more and more than small- to medium events (1-3) (4-6) just don't work out in DC anymore. Seems you need a dynamic coastal beast with every single factor stacked in your favor to get anything more than a coating. One thing not in place and DC gets nothing. The forecasters around here need to seriously ask themselves why DC proper gets so little snow.

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Re: closings... the roads out west aren't great.  While it sucks DC proper is getting shafted yet again, a lot of people commute from Loudoun and points even further west.  Think they've got to take that into account when closing.

 

Even major roads like Rt 15 are pretty bad out here:

 

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