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Dec 10 Morning Crusher (obs/nowcasting)


yoda

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My light snow has changed to sleet and rain despite being at 32.5 degrees with the 850 temps supposedly crashing. So much for me being able to nowcast. Once I changed over, I thought I'd stay snow.

When I lull I get sleet. When radar shows yellows I get sleet and fat flakes

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mcd2075.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0628 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN MD...NRN DE...SERN PA...CNTRL/SRN
   NJ

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

   VALID 101228Z - 101730Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HOUR WILL SPREAD ENEWD
   THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND SHOULD TAPER OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS BEING ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF AN
   INTENSE OHIO-VALLEY MID-LEVEL IMPULSE TRACKING ENEWD WITHIN STRONG
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. A NE/SW-ORIENTED SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION OVER
   THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ENEWD THROUGH THE MORNING
   HOURS. THIS WILL OCCUR AS LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS IN
   TANDEM WITH AN INCREASE IN DEEP ASCENT AMIDST ANTECEDENT
   BAROCLINICITY. A CORRIDOR OF DEEP SUB-FREEZING AIR WILL SUPPORT THE
   PROGRESSION OF ONGOING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FROM NRN VA TO S-CNTRL
   PA ENEWD ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENHANCED ASCENT WITHIN A FAIRLY DEEP
   DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE CENTERED AROUND 500 MB THAT WILL FAVOR
   SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH/HOUR. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON AS STRONGER ASCENT SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE MIDDLE
   TROPOSPHERE DRIES.

 

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I'm also hoping the bands (however big they are) start lining up more n-s. 

There has been a tendency so far for bands to enhance along the following lines - 

roughly Kensington to Waterloo, Ashburn VA to Ellicott City and a third one up near Comus and Damascus. Hopefully that can continue. 

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