Ridingtime Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Hey Guys! Looks like winter finally got started here in Jerusalem, Israel after a very slow start. On the horizon, models are forecasting a large high pressure building over Scandinavia and France which should assist in creating a significant trough to develop and dip down over Israel sending a good dose of cold air this way. In conjunction with that develop appears to be our largest storm yet this year starting Wednesday going to at least the end of Saturday. The GFS was much the more warm model in comparison to the Euro the past few days, but now it seems both are showing good cold temps for producing snow in Jerusalem. Usually, we need to have temps below -25C at 500 mb and below 0 at 850 mb to get snow. The 12Z GFS run today is look especially good http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=lljr Any help tracking this would be awesome. Professional met thoughts, feedback, ideas etc will be repaid with awesome snow pics and videos submitted in this forum if it all pans out Will keep you guys posted! Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_europe_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Latest 0Z GFS is really looking awesome. Check the link above. It's rare that Israel sees a storm form under such crashing low temp heights as you see there. Things seem to be in track for at least seeing some white stuff fall from the sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_europe_078_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Latest 0Z GFS is really looking awesome. Check the link above. It's rare that Israel sees a storm form under such crashing low temp heights as you see there. Things seem to be in track for at least seeing some white stuff fall from the sky Wow that's crazy considering you're I believe as far south as South Carolina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/06/gfs_europe_084_precip_p48.gif The latest 6Z GFS is showing a real insane amount of frozen precip before it's all over. Now it seems there will be two big bursts of snow. Thursday tomorrow from the morning till afternoon. Then a break of precip till Friday morning in which another large round of precip gets developed by the low until Saturday morning. It also seems that the low is being modeled more intensely than before and thus pulling down even more cold air. More updates coming soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Atarot didn't seem to work for me on AccuWx PPV. Is there a closer airport to Jerusalem than Ben Gurion? I will say, 6Z GFS, 2 meter temps far too warm at BG, but 850 mb temps and thicknesses and 6 hour precip are all onboard for a big snow. I suspect 600 plus meters elevation makes quite a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Atarot didn't seem to work for me on AccuWx PPV. Is there a closer airport to Jerusalem than Ben Gurion? I will say, 6Z GFS, 2 meter temps far too warm at BG, but 850 mb temps and thicknesses and 6 hour precip are all onboard for a big snow. I suspect 600 plus meters elevation makes quite a difference. Generally in Jerusalem we need below 0c at 850mb and below -25 c at 500mb for snow. Here is a link to Jerusalem GFS data in numbers and you will see we are in excellent shape, temp wise, for snow: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=lljr The main concern now is consistent precipitation. I believe that the latest Euro run is still showing the least precip out of all models, and since the Euro is generally better here, that is definitely a concern. But even so, the Euro is putting at least 5 cm on the ground by Saturday morning, and I'd be fine with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 It is hard to believe we may have another snow event that may rival what happened here last year. Last January I created a thread and posted throughout Jerusalem's first major accumulating snow storm in 10 years. We received between 10-20 cm and the pictures I was able to take were just breathtaking. After that storm ended, and because of how rare snow is in Jerusalem, I thought I'd never see another snow like that here again for a very long time. Well sure enough, models are still showing at the very least accumulating snow for this coming Thursday and Friday and it's actually looking like a BIGGER storm than last year. I have read estimations as high as 50 cm by Saturday morning for Jerusalem (that is more than a foot of snow). This is obviously an unbelievable time for a snow weenie like myself to live in Israel I'll keep you guys updated. If you are tracking this thread, let me know though too so I am able to gauge whether people here have interest in this all together. Happy winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 http://www.weather-it-is-israel.com/cross_forecast.php?type=4km That is a link to another model that mets generally like to use more called the WRF. It's looking great now, so that's keeping me real hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 GFS has a warm bias at the surface, this is especially true for Jerusalem. I think there's the potential of at least 1.5" of precipitation of the frozen kind...so 50cm is not out ouf the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 GFS has a warm bias at the surface, this is especially true for Jerusalem. I think there's the potential of at least 1.5" of precipitation of the frozen kind...so 50cm is not out ouf the question. If we get that it would be nothing short of historic for the area. So far 12Z GFS is holding course for precip amounts if not maybe just a tad lower. Excitement building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 There is definitely some impressive snow totals being output by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Silly question that came to me after thinking about a fairly modern supermarket in Massapequa about a decade ago (internet- Waldbaums 1996) that collapsed under snow weight- in a fairly old city, will the water weight of 2 plus inches of water, if it is trapped in a snow pack, cause significanr issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Silly question that came to me after thinking about a fairly modern supermarket in Massapequa about a decade ago (internet- Waldbaums 1996) that collapsed under snow weight- in a fairly old city, will the water weight of 2 plus inches of water, if it is trapped in a snow pack, cause significanr issues? I suppose it could, although I doubt it because most of the building here are made from a concrete structure covered and plastered with Jerusalem stone as opposed to using wood and what not. I'd guess that means buildings are bit sturdier than normal, but I don't know. I have doubts there will actually be that much snow all together. The Euro is less impressive than the GFS too. We'll see. Still freakin pumped here for this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 It's officially cold enough in all the layers of the atmosphere for snow to fall in Jerusalem, and it has begun doing so already at 7:00 am in the morning. It is obviously staring off as wet snow, so big flakes and not so much sticking yet, but absolutely gorgeous. As the cold air continues to seep in in the afternoon here, I expect to start seeing some significant accumulations. The main thing we need to have now is consistent precip. Euro is still drier than the GFS and the GFS did indeed back down a tad the strength of the low. Luckily, the WRF model is an hour by hour model that mets here like to use and its showing pretty much the same heavy precip that I was mentioning before. Overall, conservative estimates are saying that by Saturday morning we should have 10-20 cm on the ground, the potential for 50 cm though is certainly there (and that would be insane, just crazy insane). This means that I should snow here that will either match or rival last years insane event. The fact that I am typing those words is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The amount of snow that is falling now is just unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The amount of snow that is falling now is just unbelievable Post pics if u can ...any idea how much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 The snow has been exceeding all expectations so far. The city is pretty much shut down, from the bus system, government institutions and schools due to the cold air arriving earlier than predicted and a large batch of precip that pummeled the city for about 4 hours. As of now, I'd say we have already accumulated close to 4 inches on grassy surfaces and obviously less on the streets. It was a wet snow too, so there's been some melting as the radar clears and while we are waiting for the next big batch. There are only 100 plows in this city, so its pretty astonishing how the city is able to handle something like this. Will keep ya'll updated and should upload some pics soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 via Facebook נפתלי בנט הארץ היפה שלנו Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Freakin awesome. Can't wait to see pics. You have a site where I can view radar (was never able to find one) The snow has been exceeding all expectations so far. The city is pretty much shut down, from the bus system, government institutions and schools due to the cold air arriving earlier than predicted and a large batch of precip that pummeled the city for about 4 hours. As of now, I'd say we have already accumulated close to 4 inches on grassy surfaces and obviously less on the streets. It was a wet snow too, so there's been some melting as the radar clears and while we are waiting for the next big batch. There are only 100 plows in this city, so its pretty astonishing how the city is able to handle something like this. Will keep ya'll updated and should upload some pics soon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Link to radar and various other data: http://www.ims.gov.il/IMSEng/CLIMATE Radar currently appears quite strong, map shows a 997 mb low near Tel Aviv which has been drifting south under a large upper level low. As it is currently evening there, radar shows potential for a heavy snowfall of 20-30 cm overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Link to radar and various other data: http://www.ims.gov.il/IMSEng/CLIMATE Radar currently appears quite strong, map shows a 997 mb low near Tel Aviv which has been drifting south under a large upper level low. As it is currently evening there, radar shows potential for a heavy snowfall of 20-30 cm overnight. I'm glad you feel that way. The radar for me has been making feel a little nervous honestly since it's been so dry here the past several hours. Also the 12z GFS is spitting out drier output for overnight. So it's been making me edgy about tonight working out. Tomorrow though is still looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 And concerns gone like that. Heavy snow occurring now. Radar looking great. Expecting great accumulations throughout the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 And concerns gone like that. Heavy snow occurring now. Radar looking great. Expecting great accumulations throughout the night. The heavier snow echos are hard to identify on radar, given the differing precipitation in such short distances. You guys are looking really good. Have a friend in the Gush who says it's piling up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 https://www.icloud.com/photostream/#A6JEsNWnJHwHMl Thats the link for where I will post all my pics. So far what you'll see now is what I took from this morning. Tomorrow morning is going to be like triple more insane than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I still think that more than 1" of frozen equivalent precipitation will fall...most of it will stick, as surface temps will be around the freezing mark, or a tad below. 40cm of new fresh snow is my guess. Enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Thanks. Wish I knew of this site when I was there. Link to radar and various other data: http://www.ims.gov.il/IMSEng/CLIMATE Radar currently appears quite strong, map shows a 997 mb low near Tel Aviv which has been drifting south under a large upper level low. As it is currently evening there, radar shows potential for a heavy snowfall of 20-30 cm overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capitalweather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I did an article on the storm, see this link - using some of the info from this thread: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/12/unusual-december-snowstorm-strikes-middle-east-jerusalem-shutdown/ I may do a short update tomorrow... so keep the great info coming... would love info on snowfall totals and how this ranks historically.... pics are great too - please indicate if I have permission to republish pics and how I should credit.... (private message me with any questions) thanks! jason samenow washington post weather editor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hi Jason, Great article! I also live in Jerusalem and will try to keep you updated. After about 7-10 cm (3-4") this morning, which partially melted, another 7-8 cm (3") has accumulated in a few hours this evening. With the new snow this evening, this is already the heaviest snow in Jerusalem in December in the last 100 years. Because the water temps in the Mediterranean are mild and take a while to cool down (they're currently near 70F), it is very rare to have heavy snow in December. See http://www.meteoprog.co.il/en/water/ for current water temps. There have been several storms with more than 25 cm (10") in the last century, but all occurred in Jan or Feb. Here is a record of snowfall in Jerusalem going back to the 1700s (!): http://www.angelfire.com/mb/batzdir/SNOWTAB1.htm. It hasn't been updated in over 5 years, so it doesn't include the heavy snows in Jan 2008 (~20 cm) and Jan 2013 (also ~20 cm). One correction: As you can see from the link above, Jerusalem has a snowfall over 15 cm (6") on average about every 5-7 years, but snowfalls of any amount are more common - about 2/3 of years have at least some snow. More pics from my friend Yishai Fleisher: https://drive.google.com/folderview?id=0By31oPQGk4z_LWRLSGhDb2l3YzA&usp=sharing I did an article on the storm, see this link - using some of the info from this thread: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/12/12/unusual-december-snowstorm-strikes-middle-east-jerusalem-shutdown/ I may do a short update tomorrow... so keep the great info coming... would love info on snowfall totals and how this ranks historically.... pics are great too - please indicate if I have permission to republish pics and how I should credit.... (private message me with any questions) thanks! jason samenow washington post weather editor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 Hey Jason, feel free to republish any pics you want that I post using my name Jonathan Hoffman as the credit. Thanks and good work with that article! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 As Jconsor mentioned, another 7-8 cm have accumulated so far in the past 2 hours. I took a memorable and amazing walk with my wife just now with peaceful, beautiful, heavy snow falling everywhere. It's just an awesome winter wonderland out there, with everything white, quiet, people roaming the streets taking pics. Nothing like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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