Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Alek is straddling Henry M's "blue snowstorm outline". We're golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah the southern cut off won't be partially sampled till tomorrow's 12z runs and fully sampled till tomorrow nights runs so I wait till then. 12z GFS still nice for I-80 and south in IL. Actually advisory snows into MDW area it looks like. the northern stream is verifying to be stronger (at 12Z) then what the 00Z GFS thought it would be as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Alek is straddling Henry M's "blue snowstorm outline". We're golden. speaking of straddling blue lines.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 speaking of straddling blue lines.... day3_psnow_gt_04.gif The 12z GEM looks like 4-5" of snow for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 The 12z GEM looks like 4-5" of snow for this area. yeah...decent run for the whole sub forum even....verbatim, some of those ratios up into wisco should be better than down by us...and obviously everywhere east of QC has a decent snowfall out of that run as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I didn't punt the clipper...probably should have. I busted low by 1.5" on the first snow and will bust about 1" high on the clipper. Not a bad track record considering all calls were made well in advance. As for the weekend event, it's over outside a minor event for the OV and the east coast. Wouldn't call 3-6" minor...there's maybe 3 of those in an entire winter (on average) south of I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 So Euro is an outlier atm, last nights run..let's see what the 12z shows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 DOn't think there are any changes to the euro still weak...however no east coast bomb.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 GEFS seem pretty encouraging for northern areas. EURO will probably douse them in cold water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yup...Euro is very weak...I think weaker thn 00z Thanks for the heads up. I'll check out the EURO on the free sites when it comes in just for the sake of confirmation, but I'm thinking waiting until 0z for some sort of miraculous change is foolhardy. The trends have been clear for the last 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Thanks for the heads up. I'll check out the EURO on the free sites when it comes in just for the sake of confirmation, but I'm thinking waiting until 0z for some sort of miraculous change is foolhardy. The trends have been clear for the last 36 hours. Through 75 hours the 12z Euro is a bit further north and the precip field is more defined than the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Thanks for the heads up. I'll check out the EURO on the free sites when it comes in just for the sake of confirmation, but I'm thinking waiting until 0z for some sort of miraculous change is foolhardy. The trends have been clear for the last 36 hours. Based on what I see Euro is 1-3" maybe 4".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Through 75 hours the 12z Euro is a bit further north and the precip field is much more defined than the 0z Euro. Yeah some improvements...still weak tho.... maybe heading to the right direction, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm going 2-4" in Toronto, with that falling over an extended period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro is wetter up here at to about I-88 or so. MDW would probably get similar amounts as shown on the 12z GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Based on what I see Euro is 1-3" maybe 4".... 2" to 4" high ratios will kick it up a notch. 3" is the over/under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah some improvements...still weak tho.... maybe heading to the right direction, Yeah a few small changes through 90 hours but not much different than 0z Euro. Its slightly further north as far as i can tell and the precip field is a bit more defined. Its like all of sudden around 68-72 hours its energy begins getting drained, however before that it looks more juicer than 0z. Not much of a phase. Its speeding up the southern vort energy and pushing the one in the north further back.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro basically 69 south to 696 1-2", 2-3" to 94, and 3"+ south of 94 closer to OH border.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Might be one of the best runs yet for the sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 2" to 4" high ratios will kick it up a notch. 3" is the over/under LOL, 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 LOL, 2-4 Take it and like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I'm going 2-4" in Toronto, with that falling over an extended period of time. That's my call too. Maybe a tad more if there's lake enhancement involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 BMI-IKK-LAF do pretty well this run. 3-4" or so up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah a few small changes through 90 hours but not much different than 0z Euro. Its slightly further north as far as i can tell and the precip field is a bit more defined. Its like all of sudden around 68-72 hours its energy begins getting drained, however before that it looks more juicer than 0z. Not much of a phase. Its speeding up the southern vort energy and pushing the one in the north further back.. How is it QPF wise for YYZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 That's my call too. Maybe a tad more if there's lake enhancement involved. If the little s/w over Lake Nipigon and the southern stream wave don't at least partially phase, it's going to tough to turn the winds easterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 This will be shifting north.....in my dreams! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 You need to charge your phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 How is it QPF wise for YYZ?Using 12:1 ratios about 3-5". Its a bit better than the 0z EURO. Qpf wise its similar to the GGEM. Whats your take on this? There are some things on the model runs that dont match up or make sense. We've seen a lot of issues of late, in terms of accuracy on the models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Using 12:1 ratios about 3-5". Its a bit better than the 0z EURO. Qpf wise its similar to the GGEM. Whats your take on this? There are some things on the model runs that dont match up or make sense. We've seen a lot of issues of late, in terms of accuracy on the models.. What doesn't make sense (besides that we're getting screwed yet again)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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