Minnesota Meso Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I've only read this once, but this is a interesting look at the potential of this system, seems as if the WPC has thrown the GFS under the bus.... http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/12/december-13-16-potentially-significant.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 00Z GFS initialization better, but still messy in the pacific with regard to strength and positioning of things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Using 12:1 ratios the 0z GFS showed a generalized swath of about 5-9 inches from Detroit through Ottawa and slightly more around the Buffalo and Niagara region. Elsewhere in Michigan a general 3-6". It generally falls over a long period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I like that article Minnesota Meso, but one of these models is probably right. There were a couple of 12z GFS ensembles that actually showed a 995ish MB low in Michigan, but they were probably outliers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Pretty good snowstorm for along/south of 80 in IL into northwest IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I just hope we beat that 4.5" snow storm from last winter (only one we had, and biggest).... BTW GGEM looks decent... 5-8" snowfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I like that article Minnesota Meso, but one of these models is probably right. There were a couple of 12z GFS ensembles that actually showed a 995ish MB low in Michigan, but they were probably outliers. Like it said, we have to wait until it's better sampled (of course), yet on the other hand this thing is fairly close to phasing, if in fact the southern stream energy is to slow in ejecting out by 12 hours or so we could see a real interesting event for most of this subforum, I will be watching this from a far. For the MSP area we really do need a warm up to about 20° so we can finally free our off ramps etc. from washboard conditions left over from last weeks storms because of the flash freeze after the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I've only read this once, but this is a interesting look at the potential of this system, seems as if the WPC has thrown the GFS under the bus.... http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/12/december-13-16-potentially-significant.html Edit: While he mentioned the EPO he really didn't explain it's effects. Lets take a look at the GGEM valid 06z Sat from the 12/11/0z run. This is a hot link so it will change. If you look at the map you will notice that a great deal of energy is left behind is the SW. You can also see a very strong NW flow out of western Canada (in other words the strong -EPO). This strong NW flow should and will likely leave energy in the SW US as it cuts off its progression to the NE. I really think that a plowabe event could take place over most of this subforum, but as far as major winter storm with 8-10" or better I don't think so, with the exception of far Western Michigan, very near the lake. http://www.plainsweather.com/wxmap/model/ggem/00Z/CONUS_GGEM_500_GPHVORT_78HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro looks terrible...weak.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro looks terrible...weak.... Yeah it sucks alright, always seems to look so promising with this storm to the south and west of us, but then the low moves east and gets squashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 GGEM still with 0.4" and greater from Chicago east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah it sucks alright, always seems to look so promising with this storm to the south and west of us, but then the low moves east and gets squashed. Im not buying it...not buying any model until 36 hours out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Im not buying it...not buying any model until 36 hours out! Probably a good idea, split the models down the middle in terms of results, perhaps take a bit off it for an early guess, but beyond that, be skeptical of every run until sampling occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Probably a good idea, split the models down the middle in terms of results, perhaps take a bit off it for an early guess, but beyond that, be skeptical of every run until sampling occurs. Yup... Euro gives us like 1-3" snowfall... It looked pretty good for a second, but whatever I think it's an outlier atm.. All other models seem to be somewhat agreeing with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro looks good for Indy and surrounding areas! Most models agree on anywhere between 2-6 inches Saturday, and snow most of the day so I am happy with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Euro looks good for Indy and surrounding areas! Most models agree on anywhere between 2-6 inches Saturday, and snow most of the day so I am happy with that. I agree. Hoping some of those totals can make it east Across the border to western Ohio. Amounts will all determine on the potential or not of this thing "phasing". I'm still not putting much merit in to most of the models until this thing comes ashore in the West with some good sampling for the models to adjust by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 looks like the typical WAA wet snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 time to punt this one you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 time to punt this one you guysLol, the question is..what hasn't been punted? -_- The winter complaint thread wont feel alone this month by the looks of it. Well its still 3-5 days out so hopefully things change. Went from a major snowstorm to a major dusting now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Lol, the question is..what hasn't been punted? -_- The winter complaint thread wont feel alone this month by the looks of it. Well its still 3-5 days out so hopefully things change. Went from a major snowstorm to a major dusting now... I didn't punt the clipper...probably should have. I busted low by 1.5" on the first snow and will bust about 1" high on the clipper. Not a bad track record considering all calls were made well in advance. As for the weekend event, it's over outside a minor event for the OV and the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 GGEM from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 the more i look at things the more i realize just how DOA this thing is....heights over the NE are just being bullied by the massive Atlantic storm near Greenland. There's no way the SW vort is going to do anything but race east digging and cranking heights...not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 the more i look at things the more i realize just how DOA this thing is....heights over the NE are just being bullied by the massive Atlantic storm near Greenland. There's no way the SW vort is going to do anything but race east digging and cranking heights...not happening. Whole H5 pattern does have a squashed look to it. Not unreasonable to give up I think. Personally, I'll probably give it til 0z. There are three separate sw/s involved in forming this storm, all of them offshore. Plus, I've seen many a time the models almost in unison lose a storm in the D4 range only to bring it back to some extent. Some implicit straw grabbing going on here but what the hell, it's the season of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Whole H5 pattern does have a squashed look to it. Not unreasonable to give up I think. Personally, I'll probably give it til 0z. There are three separate sw/s involved in forming this storm, all of them offshore. Plus, I've seen many a time the models almost in unison lose a storm in the D4 range only to bring it back to some extent. Some implicit straw grabbing going on here but what the hell, it's the season of hope. works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Now I'm just hoping for a bomb on the east coast so there's so nice snowcover when I get home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Now I'm just hoping for a bomb on the east coast so there's so nice snowcover when I get home EXACTLY what I'm hoping for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 when the NAM isn't showing a amped up storm 3 days out, then you start to worry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 NAM throws a few of us LES on the western shoreline of Lake MI. Good hit for LAF into OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbotc Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 There's some weirdness with low placement between models, but I'm still liking 3 inches in my backyard. I'll be happy if I bust high. Mixed precip is a concern of mine. At least I'll weenie out looking at this: http://forecast.io/#/f/40.117,-88.204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Yeah the southern cut off won't be partially sampled till tomorrow's 12z runs and fully sampled till tomorrow nights runs so I wait till then. 12z GFS still nice for I-80 and south in IL. Actually advisory snows into MDW area it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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