toronto blizzard Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I would be a little cautious of the Euro's depiction, it takes the southern stream vort from California to Alabama in 48 hours, that is extremely fast and by far the fastest of all models.It's ensembles hopefully will have a stronger primary low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The Euro is lost, tbh. Agreed! I'm not sure about the Euro tbh, and I think it has not been doing a good job lately..but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Thank you Euro! Thank you! KDTW SAT 06Z 14-DEC 21.7 10.2 1028 12.6 94 0.01 551 529 SAT 12Z 14-DEC 22.0 13.9 1026 12.5 90 0.03 549 529 SAT 18Z 14-DEC 28.4 23.7 1020 17.8 97 0.08 546 531 SUN 00Z 15-DEC 28.0 25.8 1013 22.1 99 0.11 543 532 SUN 06Z 15-DEC 27.7 26.0 1010 22.4 92 0.06 540 532 And THANK YOU! Might have to go down to 1-3" this year! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I would be a little cautious of the Euro's depiction, it takes the southern stream vort from California to Alabama in 48 hours, that is extremely fast and by far the fastest of all models. Remember back in the day when the Euro tended to hold vorts back in the southwest for too long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Where do you guys even go to see precip on the euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Uccellini says that by the end of 2014, the computing power of the GFS is set to increase by as much as 10 times its current level. At that time, the GFS will be able to run at a much higher resolution, identifying subtle, previously undetected details in the atmosphere that can have a big impact on what the weather will be like in the next few days. http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/05/15/weather-model-upgrade/2161467/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Remember back in the day when the Euro tended to hold vorts back in the southwest for too long... Yeah, I mean the southern stream will be moving decently quick due to an upstream kicker but the Euro is unrealistically too fast with the pattern. I do admit though the Pacific upon initialization is a mess and models are going to have problems for a couple model cycles trying to figure out what is what there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Euro looks a little GGEMish with that surface reflection in the northern Lakes by 120, though it seems to lose it quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Uccellini says that by the end of 2014, the computing power of the GFS is set to increase by as much as 10 times its current level. At that time, the GFS will be able to run at a much higher resolution, identifying subtle, previously undetected details in the atmosphere that can have a big impact on what the weather will be like in the next few days. http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2013/05/15/weather-model-upgrade/2161467/ I wonder if they're completely overhauling the old GFS. I know it was written in XLF90, but I don't even think that language is relevant today at all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Euro looks a little GGEMish with that surface reflection in the northern Lakes by 120, though it seems to lose it quicker. Yeah, it reminded me of the GEM more than anything else, both are far less bullish on the potential in Wisconsin, but they could be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yeah, I mean the southern stream will be moving decently quick due to an upstream kicker but the Euro is unrealistically too fast with the pattern. I do admit though the Pacific upon initialization is a mess and models are going to have problems for a couple model cycles trying to figure out what is what there. Tis painful to watch IMO...on a brighter note....since this has the chance, at least via the current models, to affect the EC and all the major population hubs....there is a chance for some data sampling flights in the pacific over the next few days... MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 201 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013 VALID DEC 10/1200 UTC THRU DEC 14/0000 UTC ...PROGRESSIVE TROUGH ARRIVING ON THE WEST COAST DAY 2... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 12Z CANADIAN WITH 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH OF SHORT TO MEDIUM WAVELENGTH WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE WA/OR/NORTHERN CA COASTS BY 13/00Z. THE CHARACTER OF THIS SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH ITS INITIAL POSITION OVER THE DATA VOID IN THE PACIFIC...IS CAUSING SOME DIFFICULTY IN THE MODELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I wonder if they're completely overhauling the old GFS. I know it was written in XLF90, but I don't even think that language is relevant today at all.... The GFS was be about 3 times stronger than the Euro.... But I heard the Euro was going to get a mega boost. Soon, forecasts will be spit out of a computer a 2 weeks in advance and be damn near perfect.... Probably another decade or so from that, the chaos theory is a pretty big hurdle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The GFS was be about 3 times stronger than the Euro.... But I heard the Euro was going to get a mega boost. Soon, forecasts will be spit out of a computer a 2 weeks in advance and be damn near perfect.... Probably another decade or so from that, the chaos theory is a pretty big hurdle. Ugh, the positive is that many will lose less hair.... But seriously that would be pretty boring if you ask me...! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Ugh, the positive is that many will lose less hair.... But seriously that would be pretty boring if you ask me...! I'm not debating how fun it will be, but if you think we aren't going to pursue this, you're wrong. Models are pretty dead on within 3 days, after that they waiver a bit in the exact tract... You can predict a ball-park storm track 5 days out, just takes minor adjustments after that. I would love to be able to see dry slots and rain/snow lines more effectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The GFS was be about 3 times stronger than the Euro.... But I heard the Euro was going to get a mega boost. Soon, forecasts will be spit out of a computer a 2 weeks in advance and be damn near perfect.... Probably another decade or so from that, the chaos theory is a pretty big hurdle. Yeah it doesn't really work like that. Chaos theory can't really be cancelled out by computing power. Upgrading the GFS to 4DVAR (or something similar, I think I recall dtk saying once that the way the GFS is coded it can't technically do 4DVAR) is a step in the right direction, but the data void in the Pacific, and parametrization schemes for convection, cumulus, and the boundary layer all induce error. (Yes, some day it's theoretically possible we could run a global-scale model at 4 km and not have to parametrize convection, but we'd need something like a one-molecule grid spacing to be able to do away with the other two. But of course, we don't have a one-molecule resolution grid ready to be input either, so you see how this problem just kind of keeps going on and on.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Biggest change I see on the GEM and the EURO is more stream separation. There could still be good easterly conveyor belt of Atlantic moisture being fed back towards the primary, but it's going to be to the north of the lows. Keeping that northern stream low all the way up over Lk Superior isn't helpful in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yeah it doesn't really work like that. Chaos theory can't really be cancelled out by computing power. Upgrading the GFS to 4DVAR (or something similar, I think I recall dtk saying once that the way the GFS is coded it can't technically do 4DVAR) is a step in the right direction, but the data void in the Pacific, and parametrization schemes for convection, cumulus, and the boundary layer all induce error. (Yes, some day it's theoretically possible we could run a global-scale model at 4 km and not have to parametrize convection, but we'd need something like a one-molecule grid spacing to be able to do away with the other two. But of course, we don't have a one-molecule resolution grid ready to be input either, so you see how this problem just kind of keeps going on and on.) I think I read that the GFS itself will be retired before 2020 and a new model will take its place, I really don't see the purpose of renaming it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 ECMWF has three surface lows now, at 111 hours. colors here are 925mb RH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Biggest change I see on the GEM and the EURO is more stream separation. There could still be good easterly conveyor belt of Atlantic moisture being fed back towards the primary, but it's going to be to the north of the lows. Keeping that northern stream low all the way up over Lk Superior isn't helpful in that regard.The GEM ensembles didn't look like they supported the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Thank you Euro! Thank you! KDTW SAT 06Z 14-DEC 21.7 10.2 1028 12.6 94 0.01 551 529 SAT 12Z 14-DEC 22.0 13.9 1026 12.5 90 0.03 549 529 SAT 18Z 14-DEC 28.4 23.7 1020 17.8 97 0.08 546 531 SUN 00Z 15-DEC 28.0 25.8 1013 22.1 99 0.11 543 532 SUN 06Z 15-DEC 27.7 26.0 1010 22.4 92 0.06 540 532 And THANK YOU! Might have to go down to 1-3" this year! LOL I like where we sit considering this is the worst outcome of the op models. And models now showing another event just a few days later (healthy clipper?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Over/under 6.2" total snowfall with clipper and this system at ORD? tough call...assuming 3" with the clipper and a potentially generous 3" (final call) with this system, I'll go under. looking likely to bust high on the clippper so i'm feeling good about this under call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Ah, if only a El Nino had developed.........no "big bomb" support unless 500mb pattern changes. Slink away, you warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Ah, if only a El Nino had developed.........no "big bomb" support unless 500mb pattern changes. If an El Nino did develop, it would likely be just a bomb for the coast, so no thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 meh, it is what it is. the flow is just to progressive. might as well look at the northern stream and see what it can deliver. Slink away, you warmer. My weather interests are being met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Biggest change I see on the GEM and the EURO is more stream separation. There could still be good easterly conveyor belt of Atlantic moisture being fed back towards the primary, but it's going to be to the north of the lows. Keeping that northern stream low all the way up over Lk Superior isn't helpful in that regard. Is the Euro depicting any snow for Toronto? 4-6" event perhaps? DT doesn't seem to agree with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Is the Euro depicting any snow for Toronto? 4-6" event perhaps? DT doesn't seem to agree with the Euro. It shows about 2-4" using 12:1 snow ratios. The timing and phasing are KEY with this storm. With such a progressive pattern in place, we would need things to fall into align perfectly. Cold air is abundant, so as of now, that does not look to be an issue. Got 2 more exams left, so once I'm done i'll shall look deeper into this storm and the following pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Based on this, DTX is going with EURO?! atm... HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI331 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-112045-MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-331 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTMICHIGAN..DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHTAN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BRING FRIGID TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHEASTERNMICHIGAN TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN 0 AND5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAYA WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATINGSNOWFALL WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONSOF 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-69.DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THEMIDWEEK PERIOD. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAYNIGHT WITH VALUES DROPPING BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.WIND CHILLS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF BOTH WEDNESDAY ANDTHURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EJECT FROM TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEYON FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL OF 3-5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSSSOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WHILETHE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS STILL UNCERTAIN, SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLIS POSSIBLE..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.$ Hm, meaning higher accumulations are possible...? http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MIZ070&warncounty=MIC099&firewxzone=MIZ070&local_place1=&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook#.UqeByWKl7e4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Local Mets are starting to mention this system for the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 AFDDTXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI405 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2013.LONG TERM... WEDNESDAY AND BEYONDTHE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BE ON FRIDAYNIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIOVALLEY. SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN STILL APPEARS TO BE NORTH OF THIS SYSTEMKEEPING PRECIPITATION AS ALL SNOW. SNOW WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY NIGHTACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND EVENTUALLY IMPACT ALL OF SOUTHEASTMICHIGAN BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OFUNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...QPF AMOUNTS ALONGWITH RESULTING SNOW ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS AND LENGTH OF LINGERINGSNOW AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. EVEN WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY...FEELINGFAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT IT WILL SNOW DURING THE SATURDAY TIMEFRAME ANDHAVE BUMPED UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS ALL OFSOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THEAREA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR LINGERINGSHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ALONG WITH VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR FORSUNDAY NIGHT /LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/ LASTING THROUGH MONDAYBEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ONTUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=DTX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 the 12Z GFS is already proving to be off on various aspects in the Pacific (one key being the strength of the northern Pac LP...it is stronger than what the 12Z progged it to be)....even just 6 hours after initialization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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