snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Looks like this is almost a Miller A now. Miller A = exclusively coastal storm. This if far from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Miller A = exclusively coastal storm. This if far from that. That's why I said *almost*. The evolution of the coastal low is very Miller A-esque. Earlier runs of the GFS were showing a transfer of the cutter low to the coast in a Miller B fashion. Now, the coastal low develops on its own and takes all of the moisture with it. Interesting trend for the east coast. I'm liking this system primarily for the lake enhancement. As the low passes to our southeast, I think some NE winds will bring some decent lake enhancement to the southwest shores of Lake Michigan. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if most of the "synoptic" snows being modeled are actually lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 That's why I said *almost*. The evolution of the coastal low is very Miller A-esque. Earlier runs of the GFS were showing a transfer of the cutter low to the coast in a Miller B fashion. Now, the coastal low develops on its own and takes all of the moisture with it. Interesting trend for the east coast. I don't see it that way. Still seems like an inland primary low transferring to the coast. But I won't quibble about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I don't see it that way. Still seems like an inland primary low transferring to the coast. But I won't quibble about it. We'll see how it evolves. After having tracked storms living in New Jersey for all of these years, when I see a low developing in north-central Alabama, I start thinking inland runner Miller A. Nevertheless, still will be fun to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 12z GGEM is almost like Sundays event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 It's way too early to hash out lake details but as modeled, it's a very minor factor for NE IL and yeah, going in for 8+ is a stretch but good luck. definitely on the bullish end lol....but I also tend to pitch the models in the 84+ range...i'm big on sampling and/or short range verification for speeds and strength in the pacific and paint a picture from there of what I think plays out in the CONUS... we'll see, maybe the clipper will throw me a bone and provide a little safety net action lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I'm cautiously optimistic about this event. Regardless, this December is a definite improvement over the past two in Toronto, and southern Ontario in general, at least in terms of temperature. Tell me about it. The last two Decembers have been well above average. November was also a massive improvement over the last two years. I like this "up in the air" feeling about how this winter will shape up. The extent of cold air so far this season and how south it has reached has been an impressive improvement for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 definitely on the bullish end lol....but I also tend to pitch the models in the 84+ range...i'm big on sampling and/or short range verification for speeds and strength in the pacific and paint a picture from there of what I think plays out in the CONUS... we'll see, maybe the clipper will throw me a bone and provide a little safety net action lol I think the clipper will be around 2" at best. Then again, the GFS has been a little scant on QPF recently, but if you were to trust it, 2" would be the best you can expect from the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 12z GGEM is almost like Sundays event. How so? It looks significantly wetter and further south. In fact much of the sub-forum sees at least 0.2" on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 How so? It looks significantly wetter and further south. In fact much of the sub-forum sees at least 0.2" on the GGEM. Overall evolution is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 12z GFS with the best group of ensembles yet...nothing great but improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GGEM total snowfall for only the Saturday event: Nearly warning criteria for eastern and southern areas of LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 12z with the best group of GFS ensembles yet...nothing great but improvement Building up that snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 GGEM total snowfall for only the Saturday event: GGEM.gif Nearly warning criteria for eastern and southern areas of LOT. mm not sure what ratio either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I don't see it that way. Still seems like an inland primary low transferring to the coast. But I won't quibble about it. I agree. Maybe it can be classified as a hybrid but it more resembles a Miller B setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 mm not sure what ratio either That's total QPF, but you probably should have decent, but not great, ratios. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 12:1-14:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 12z GGEM is probably borderline blizzard conditions in the northern Lakes as the potent northern stream wave drops in and leads to rapid deepening of the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 mm not sure what ratio either about .30"-.40" liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 12z GGEM is almost like Sundays event. Then another good clipper on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Well this is exciting. Be interesting to see what this does after wednesday. I need to pay attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 euro looks lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 euro looks lame Still about 3-4" here it looks like. Big bomb off EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 12z Euro overall drier for most. Bit wetter for E. OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 euro looks lame This looks like the East Coast's year, even though the teleconnections hardly support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 prepare for board slow downs with the I95 blizzard on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Euro showing 2-4" nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Possibly an outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Yup. The trend is definitely the east coast's friend. Heading home to Jersey on Monday so hopefully I'll be heading from one nice snow pack to another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 I would be a little cautious of the Euro's depiction, it takes the southern stream vort from California to Alabama in 48 hours, that is extremely fast and by far the fastest of all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The Euro is lost, tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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