Chicago Storm Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Not gonna happen. Good bands are few and far between up here It has better precip expand in from the south a few hours from now. The HRRR and RGEM agree. Not saying it's going to happen...but I'm not saying isn't going to happen either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 If it has a good handle on things, the WWA expansion is a lock. I know the last full HRRR run had a good handle. Did well with this first wave and now the lull. So we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Haven't seen a flake yet out in Dkb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Not gonna happen. Good bands are few and far between up here Lol give it time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 It has better precip expand in from the south a few hours from now. The HRRR and RGEM agree. Not saying it's going to happen...but I'm not saying isn't going to happen either. Fair enough. NAM backed off and it's just as credible in this short range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Enhanced band of reflectivity has been quasi-stationary over Kankakee county Illinois for a couple hours. About 2 inches at my house now. I've been on the northern fringe of that band. Friend in Herscher is guessing close to 3" there now under that band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 1.3 inches.... flake size has shrunk considerably from onset....yet still almost pouring down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 For the RAP followers... Wettest run yet for around Chicago. 0.40" near ORD and 0.50" near downtown. Hopefully that second slug of precip enhancement pivots northward and impacts you guys later tonight and early tomorrow. Looking like at least the southern half of the Chicago metro should do real well with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 -PL here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Some of those heavier returns in central IL are trying to make their way north. Its coming down pretty good along I-72 where im located Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Getting some tiny flakes falling right now. So the light returns in Lake County are reaching the ground. Lol, btw it's looking I might get more than Milwaukee! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 Oh...And lol at the MKE area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Oh...And lol at the MKE area. Was just checking that out. Really taking its sweet time getting going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Broad scale look at things as of 11:40pm central.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Good northward push now by PIA/C75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 MCD... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2078 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 PM CST FRI DEC 13 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 140531Z - 141030Z SUMMARY...A SWATH OF MODERATE SNOW...WITH LOCAL SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE...IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT FROM PARTS OF SW MO ENE THROUGH THE MO OZARKS TO E CNTRL MO/W CNTRL IL. DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE DATA SHOW VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH SRN PLNS SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMING BETTER DEFINED ATTM OVER NE OK AS THE TROUGH TEMPORARILY ASSUMES A MORE NEUTRAL TILT BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN DOWNSTREAM CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE OH VLY LATER SAT. ASCENT AND MID-LVL COOLING WITH THE VORT SHOULD ELIMINATE DEEP WARM LAYER OVER THE REGION SHOWN BY THE 00Z SGF SOUNDING...WITH COOLING LIKELY BEING SUFFICIENT TO CHANGE EXISTING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY ALONG ZONE OF STRONGEST ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT. ENEWD ADVANCE OF THE VORT SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN EXISTING DIFFUSE 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING ENE THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN MO...THEREBY ENHANCING FRONTOGENETIC FORCING/UPLIFT. COMBINATION OF FOCUSED ASCENT WITHIN AN AMPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT MAY YIELD A NARROW SWATH OR TWO OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES UP TO 1 IN/HR POSSIBLE...BEFORE THE VORT REACHES THE MS RVR TOWARD 12Z SAT. WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION /LIKELY BASED NEAR 700 MB/ MAY FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Good northward push now by PIA/C75 looks like .6 PWAT's rolling with that slug...surging into southern portions of LOT now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Have a light coating of some very fine flakes on my car. It must have just started in the last 10 minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Not gonna happen. Good bands are few and far between up here It has better precip expand in from the south a few hours from now. The HRRR and RGEM agree. Not saying it's going to happen...but I'm not saying isn't going to happen either. How did the RAP do with the overperformer last Sunday? I was too busy collecting snow reports to see how guidance was doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 If I remember right the RAP last weekend, had a sharper southern cut off to the snow and it didn't show the snow as far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 If I remember right the RAP last weekend, had a sharper southern cut off to the snow and it didn't show the snow as far south if I remember right. Most of the guidance was poor in general leading up to that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL1030 PM CST FRI DEC 13 20131029 PM SNOW 1 SE KEOKUK 40.40N 91.39W12/13/2013 M5.5 INCH LEE IA TRAINED SPOTTER LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Light snow here in BG. Not much has fallen so far but we got a loooong ways to go. Should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 How did the RAP do with the overperformer last Sunday? I was too busy collecting snow reports to see how guidance was doing. Not sure. Didn't really follow it much for that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 1200 AM SNOW OHARE AIRPORT 41.98N 87.90W12/14/2013 M0.2 INCH COOK IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS 0.01 LIQUID EQUIVALENT.1200 AM SNOW 3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT 41.75N 87.79W12/14/2013 M0.9 INCH COOK IL CO-OP OBSERVER 0.06 LIQUID EQUIVALENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 4z HRRR shifting the LES moisture indicators further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 4z HRRR shifting the LES moisture indicators further south. Do you have a link for that model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Beachler.... //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION...SPREADING LGTSNOW ACROSS NORTHERN IL/NORTHWEST IN AIRFIELDS. THE IFR CONDS HAVEBEEN HOLDING FURTHER SOUTH OF ORD AT MDW...HOWEVER EXPECT OVER THENEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THIS LINE TO LIFT NORTH AND ORD WILL SEE IFRCONDS DEVELOP. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BURST OF MODERATETO POSSIBLY A BRIEF HVY SNOW BETWEEN 08-11Z. IFR CONDS WILL THENPREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RFD WHICH WILLREMAIN JUST NORTHWEST OF THE STEADIER SNOW. AS THE LOW PRESSURELIFTS NORTHEAST...WINDS WILL STEADILY TURN NORTHEAST THENNORTHWEST. AS WINDS TURN NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST THE PRECIP WILLSTEADILY PUSH EAST...AND BRING A SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO THE IFR CONDSTO MVFR CIGS BY 00Z SUN.BEACHLER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 New thread been give... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41999-december-13-14th-winter-storm-part-2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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