Thunder Road Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 probably kinda late in the game to be using the SREFs, but the 21z mean is the wettest it's been: 0.49" liquid, 5.3" snow at VPZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 About an inch down in Kokomo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 light/mod SN at 0245, rather fine flakes though. Not quite a grain, but not a full-fledged dendrite either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Keeping an eye on that mixing line. HUF reported freezing rain right before they moved into the dry "slot". Mesoanalsysis showing a warm tongue at 925mb getting a little close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Agree with you for the most part. I think ground zero for the lake enhancement will likely end up in the Burlington area, although we are just nitpicking when we get to that fine of a scale. Anywhere from Hamilton to Mississauga looks pretty good for at least 6", and as you said 10" or more is possible. Noticed that EC's forecast for Hamilton is 25-30cm when you include Friday Night, Saturday, and Saturday Night. Same goes for Southern Halton(Burlington/Oakville) sub-region as well. I work tomorrow, but will hopefully be able to do some shooting before and after work(maybe on break as well ). EDIT: 0z 4km NAM valid 12am Sunday. NAM would seem to agree with placing the heaviest snow towards Burlington. I still have the EURO in the back of my head which is more aggressive with the winds veering so I give it a bit of weight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM would seem to agree with placing the heaviest snow towards Burlington. I still have the EURO in the back of my head which is more aggressive with the winds veering so I give it a bit of weight. Either way, no doubt one of the better lake enhancement potentials I've seen in a while for the west end of the Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 From nothing to decent size flakes...pretty sporadic at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Either way, no doubt one of the better lake enhancement potentials I've seen in a while for the west end of the Lake. There were some interesting meso-lows last year, including the one on February 16th that dropped over 5" at Pearson. But for the most part they seemed to focus from Toronto and east. Last good enhancement event that pops to my mind that included Hamilton was GHD 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 There were some interesting meso-lows last year, including the one on February 16th that dropped over 5" at Pearson. But for the most part they seemed to focus from Toronto and east. Last good enhancement event that pops to my mind that included Hamilton was GHD 2011. Yup, GHD was pretty good IMBY. I work at a fruit basket catering service(Edible Arrangements). Wonder how the deliveries will go tomorrow. Should be interesting. The City of Hamilton is usually pretty good with snow removal on main roads. Doesn't help much considering 90% of Saturday deliveries are to residential locations though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM would seem to agree with placing the heaviest snow towards Burlington. I still have the EURO in the back of my head which is more aggressive with the winds veering so I give it a bit of weight.0z hrrr seems to be veering the flow much faster then the 4km nam. Band already shifting towards the islands/lake shore by 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 From nothing to decent size flakes...pretty sporadic at the moment Just started snowing in Naperville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 0z hrrr seems to be veering the flow much faster then the 4km nam. Band already shifting towards the islands/lake shore by 15z. image.jpg Guess EC isn't buying into it yet. Will be interesting to see 0z WRF runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 0z hrrr seems to be veering the flow much faster then the 4km nam. Band already shifting towards the islands/lake shore by 15z. image.jpg That's a new take. What's the hrrr's skill when it comes to LES? I've been fairly impressed with it on the synoptic scale over the past couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yup...The new NAM snowmap is NICE....7-8" over the heart of metro Detroit with an 8-9" lollipop over Detroit proper. This is exciting. Hope it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 good update from LOT... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL858 PM CST FRI DEC 13 2013.DISCUSSION...830 PM CSTNO BIG UPDATES TO GOING FORECAST WITH ALSO NO CHANGES TO CURRENTHEADLINES IN PLACE.LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE CENTRALCONUS...WITH SEVERAL LEAD WAVES LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF IT.ASSOCIATED FORCING AS WELL AS A GOOD WAA PUSH ALLOWED FOR LIGHT TOMODERATE SNOW TO QUICKLY MOVE INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 EARLY THISEVENING. HIGH AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WERE PRESENT ON THE 00Z ILXRAOB...WITH 0.74 INCH PWAT AND 4G/KG MIXING RATIO AT 700MB.LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE OWING TO MID/LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONESTRETCHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS HAS ALSO AIDED IN THEDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL SMALLER SCALE FEATURES OVER THE LAST HOUR.THE VISIBILITY HAS GENERALLY STAYED IN THE 1-3SM RANGE...WHILEFALLING UNDER ONE MILE IN THESE SMALLER HEAVIER BANDS. ALTHOUGHTHESE SMALLER FEATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERALHOURS...THEY HAVE REMAINED TRANSIENT WITH LOCATIONS ONLY OBSERVINGBRIEF PERIODS OF THIS HEAVIER SNOW.EXPECT THIS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH WITH THEI-88 CORRIDOR LIKELY OBSERVING SNOWFALL BY THE 930 PM CST TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST WAA APPEARS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THECWA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BROAD SCALE LIFT AS WELL ASINCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO HELP PERSISTLIGHT/MODERATE SNOW AND EVEN PROVIDE BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVIERSNOW. THE STRONGEST MESOSCALE FORCING WILL PERSIST TONIGHT ANDREMAIN IN THE ADVISORY AND WARNING AREAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAYMORNING. HAD DEBATED ADDING LIVINGSTON/KANKAKEE/LAKE IN/PORTERCOUNTY IN THE WARNING...WITH THIS ANTICIPATED STRONGER FORCING.ALTHOUGH...WITH ONLY AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO TO THE GOINGTOTALS...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE ADVISORY GOING AND INSTEADINCREASE THE SNOW RANGE TO 4-7 INCHES. REST OF THE SNOW TOTALS INTHE HEADLINES STILL APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK...WITH 5 TO 8 INCHESSTILL LIKELY IN THE WARNING AREA.CONTINUE TO MONITOR A SEPARATE AREA OF DEVELOPING SNOW ACROSSSOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHERN ILLINOIS. OUTSIDE OF THE LAKEEFFECT/ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA...LATEST GUIDANCECONTINUES TO INDICATE ANOTHER AREA OF BETTER FRONTOGENITICALFORCING ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS FORCING COULD ACT TOSLIGHTLY ENHANCE TOTALS MORE TOWARDS THE ILLINOIS/WISCONSINBORDER...WITH MAYBE MORE 1-3 INCHES COULD BE OBSERVED BY TOMORROWMORNING. LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCEMENT FOR FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS HASSHOWN INCREASING TRENDS WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH NOT OVERLYLARGE...THIS WAS ENOUGH TO INCREASE SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY. LOWLEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES TOWARDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...ANDPOSSIBLY LINGERS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOWSLOWLY SHIFTS. WITH THIS POSSIBLY PROVIDING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OFLIGHT SNOW...HAVE INCREASED SNOW TOTALS MORE TOWARDS 1-3 IN LAKEIL...BUT HAVE STILL LEFT OUT OF THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED 4 INCH REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THISAREA...WAS NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE HEADLINE. ONCE AGAIN...THEEXTENDED NATURE OF THIS LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW COULD WARRANTHIGHER TOTALS IN LAKE COUNTY IL AND POSSIBLY HEADLINE CHANGESSATURDAY MORNING.RODRIGUEZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Just started snowing in Naperville. SN Coating on the driveway and street...snow seems a bit fluffier then I expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 That's a new take. What's the hrrr's skill when it comes to LES? I've been fairly impressed with it on the synoptic scale over the past couple of years. Latest RGREM (still updating) so far seems to be supporting this. Starts the band off around Hamilton/Oakville, then shifts it towards Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 That's a new take. What's the hrrr's skill when it comes to LES? I've been fairly impressed with it on the synoptic scale over the past couple of years. Has been pretty good this year for GB/huron banding... but it was overdone on the dec 9-10th event off lake ontario. Showed too much ESE enhancement when compared to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Latest RGREM (still updating) so far seems to be supporting this. Starts the band off around Hamilton/Oakville, then shifts it towards Toronto. Was just checking EC Vizaweb for the 0z GEM-Reg, whats your source? 18z had best lake enhancement in the Hamilton/Burlington areas. Will be interesting to watch this unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Band of snow staring to develop over Racine county...BUU is reporting -SN Accumulating yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Latest RGREM (still updating) so far seems to be supporting this. Starts the band off around Hamilton/Oakville, then shifts it towards Toronto. I just saw the RGEM and it didn't look to me like it made much of a run at Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 SN+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Snowing here. Driveway coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Accumulating yet? Yup, looks like a couple tenths already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 I just saw the RGEM and it didn't look to me like it made much of a run at Toronto. Wxbell maps would agree. Keeps the hamilton/grimsby/oakville enhancement all the way through. The defo banding looks pretty solid though, so the rest of the GTA still does fairly well(4-6 using a 15:1 mean ratio). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Snowing here. Driveway coating gotta be at 1/4 inch already here...although streets are fairing decently thus far due to residual salt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Treacherous conditions being reported on I-80 in IL. via Skilling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Right at 2" in Muncie so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 That's a new take. What's the hrrr's skill when it comes to LES? I've been fairly impressed with it on the synoptic scale over the past couple of years.01z HRRR trends further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Snowing here. Driveway coating gotta be at 1/4 inch already here...although streets are fairing decently thus far due to residual salt Pretty nice dendrites here, shouldn't be long til it starts to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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