A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 nice Cook county gradient on this run. rapFLT_sfc_precacc_018.gif look at that LE for MKE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 can't wait to see how much crow i have to eat for bashing MKE's LE headlines all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 RAP has been stubbornly bringing the LP up through KY...now has it dropping to 1008 in central KY @ 18Z 14DEC with light QPF still over the eastern half of IL...FWIW EDIT: or, what thundersnow just said NAM sim radar looks to have initialized a bit north and west of what is currently being depicted fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Extrapolating radar, I think it's gonna be a few hours before snow gets into most of Chicago. Maybe as early as 9 PM far southern parts of the city and more like 11 PM or later far north. CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN THE EVENING. SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE MID 20S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 90 PERCENT. Short Term LOT issued 5:48 pm for Chicago Metro: LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS QUICKLY LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST INTO AREAS FROM LA SALLE ILLINOIS SOUTHEAST TO RENSSELAER INDIANA. EXPECT THIS LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING TO UNDER 1 MILE. EXPECT INITIAL WET ROADS TO BECOME SNOW COVERED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...WITH THIS SNOW PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREA TRAVELERS SHOULD USE CAUTION WITH THIS REDUCED VISIBILITY AS WELL AS DEVELOPING SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM sim radar looks to have initialized a bit north and west of what is currently being depicted fwiw Like I said earlier....long duration event. 1-2 overnight, 1-2 tomorrow. 2-4" storm total across the city, lowest at ORD, highest in the Wild '100s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Band of snow staring to develop over Racine county...BUU is reporting -SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Extrapolating radar, I think it's gonna be a few hours before snow gets into most of Chicago. Maybe as early as 9 PM far southern parts of the city and more like 11 PM or later far north. Matches up pretty well with the 00z aviation AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 can't wait to see how much crow i have to eat for bashing MKE's LE headlines all day The bumping of your posts might fill a page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 14, 2013 Author Share Posted December 14, 2013 1.3" looks good for ORD. Gonna roll with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Some good moderate snow going on here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Latest NAM puts a little spot of .7" of QPF over TOL/BG tomorrow, which is fun but at this point I don't care. This storm would blow anything from last year out of the water if we end up with 5-8". I'll be a little more conservative and say 5.3" IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The bumping of your posts might fill a page. working the airport tonight, stebo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 working the airport tonight, stebo? Yessir, looking forward to it at midnight. This will be the first snowstorm I have worked since GHD blizzard and I only caught the back half of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 More virga starting to show up aloft on radar north of the main snow shield means top down saturation of the mid level dry air over Chicagoland is starting to take place. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Nam is more wet across S/E Michigan...7-8". some 9" longer duration..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Locally, we shouldn't spend too long moistening the column with a sounding like this from DTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yessir, looking forward to it at midnight. This will be the first snowstorm I have worked since GHD blizzard and I only caught the back half of that. longer than I would have guessed EDIT: nm, SE MI did ok total wise last year but it was mostly nickel and dime events IIRC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 NAM cut back a bit on totals across northern Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 0z NAM still looking really good for lake enhancement around the west end of Lake Ontario. Really locks in on Hamilton/Burlington before drifting north toward Oakville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 FWIW, latest Cobb ratio outputs are more aligned with DTX's thinking...around 12:1 and increasing towards the tail end of the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 longer than I would have guessed EDIT: nm, SE MI did ok total wise last year but it was mostly nickel and dime events IIRC The bigger events the last 2 years, I didn't work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 More virga starting to show up aloft on radar north of the main snow shield means top down saturation of the mid level dry air over Chicagoland is starting to take place. Sent from my SCH-I535 no flakes here yet....should be soon though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Nam is more wet across S/E Michigan...7-8". some 9" longer duration..... Yup...The new NAM snowmap is NICE....7-8" over the heart of metro Detroit with an 8-9" lollipop over Detroit proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 longer than I would have guessed EDIT: nm, SE MI did ok total wise last year but it was mostly nickel and dime events IIRC There was 12/26/12, where Detroit picked up 6". It was nothing major though (a WWA was issued). But otherwise, it has been painfully boring since February 2011 when it comes to any impressive snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 0z NAM still looking really good for lake enhancement around the west end of Lake Ontario. Really locks in on Hamilton/Burlington before drifting north toward Oakville. Yeah, 4km NAM picks it up well. Too bad (well for Toronto at least) that the low over Lk Superior couldn't have been a tad more robust. That would have forced the winds to veer more than they likely will. It'll still be a close call but I'm thinking the band never will make it onshore in Toronto. With that in mind I'll keep my 4-6" range for Toronto as my final call but I'm dropping the locally higher amounts near Lk Ontario. While there's still a chance, it's too remote for it to be included in a forecast. Thinking the bullseye will likely be in Oakville or west Mississauga were the band may stall for a bit. 10" seems probable here. 6-9" looks good for the rest of the Hamilton to Mississauga corridor I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 More virga starting to show up aloft on radar north of the main snow shield means top down saturation of the mid level dry air over Chicagoland is starting to take place. Sent from my SCH-I535 no flakes here yet....should be soon though Should be starting at LOT momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 The radar hole over Northeast MO ,,,radar doesn't support 1 inch per hour rates but 0828 PM SNOW KAHOKA 40.42N 91.72W 12/13/2013 M2.1 INCH CLARK MO PUBLIC NEW SNOW IN PAST 2 HOURS. STORM TOTAL 5.1 INCHES. SNOW IS BEGINNING TO DRIFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 There was 12/26/12, where Detroit picked up 6". It was nothing major though. But otherwise, it has been painfully boring since February 2011 when it comes to any impressive snowstorms. There were actually 2 advisory snow events in March 2011 as well. The winter of 2010-11 had 8 advisory or warning snowstorms. What a way to close out a 4-year epic stretch. The good old days The last two winters the biggest events were the Dec 26/27, 2012 snowstorm (6.2"), the Feb 10/11, 2012 arctic front (4.8") and the 3-day slushfest Feb 26-28 (7.1" over 3 days but never got to a depth of 7", it was one sloppy slushy LONG event). Some of the nickel and dime events are more impressive than others rate-wise (esp Jan 28, 2013, Feb 22, 2013, and our whiteout lake squalls) but at the end of the day its still a nickel and dime event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Should be starting at LOT momentarily. I could throw a stone in DuPage County from here....the county line is literally 1/4 mile north of me....looks like a decent band about to roll over my local here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Yeah, 4km NAM picks it up well. Too bad (well for Toronto at least) that the low over Lk Superior couldn't have been a tad more robust. That would have forced the winds to veer more than they likely will. It'll still be a close call but I'm thinking the band never will make it onshore in Toronto. With that in mind I'll keep my 4-6" range for Toronto as my final call but I'm dropping the locally higher amounts near Lk Ontario. While there's still a chance, it's too remote for it to be included in a forecast. Thinking the bullseye will likely be in Oakville or west Mississauga were the band may stall for a bit. 10" seems probable here. 6-9" looks good for the rest of the Hamilton to Mississauga corridor I think. Agree with you for the most part. I think ground zero for the lake enhancement will likely end up in the Burlington area, although we are just nitpicking when we get to that fine of a scale. Anywhere from Hamilton to Mississauga looks pretty good for at least 6", and as you said 10" or more is possible. Noticed that EC's forecast for Hamilton is 25-30cm when you include Friday Night, Saturday, and Saturday Night. Same goes for Southern Halton(Burlington/Oakville) sub-region as well. I work tomorrow, but will hopefully be able to do some shooting before and after work(maybe on break as well ). EDIT: 0z 4km NAM valid 12am Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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