Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 If the trough diving into the west can phase with the energy pulling out of the SW, this will be more interesting. If not, you end up what's currently shown. The trough kicks the wave out of the SW, and you end up with a disorganized system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Boy if we got that southern piece of energy to slow down a day or so, we'd have a BOMB. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_120_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M More like 6-12hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 More like 6-12hrs. Sure. But I believe we're both on the same page with the importance of the interaction between these two pieces of energy. Which is great, because I absolutely love tracking storms that rely heavily on interaction at h5. The next few days will be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Would be nice to slow down that coastal transfer. Well, I guess nice is relative to where you are as it would cause issues for folks in the eastern part of the subforum. GFS is notorious for transferring to the coast a bit too quickly, I would suspect this will slow a touch as we go closer to the event time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Boy if we got that southern piece of energy to slow down a day or so, we'd have a BOMB. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_120_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Also possible, models tend to move southern stream energy too quickly compared to reality, just like they tend to be too slow with northern steam energy especially if it is a compact vorticity max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Huge potential here for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Also....00Z GFS was off considerably in placement of the Pac LP that is going to supply the northern stream energy during initialization.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Detroit and Toronto folk will like the GGEM http://www.plainsweather.com/wxmap/model/ggem/00Z/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 00z GGEM gets the low down to about 1000mb over Buffalo. If nothing else, it's an improvement from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 00z GGEM gets the low down to about 1000mb over Buffalo. If nothing else, it's an improvement from the 12z run. Gem has it snowing for 60 hours straight here. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Anyone have a good link to the GGEM? Seem to have lost it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Anyone have a good link to the GGEM? Seem to have lost it... http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00〈=en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Well one thing's for sure this system has the potential to grow fairly large in size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00〈=en this is good for hourly data to 120hrs too http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?mod=gemglb&map=na&run=00〈=en Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 this is good for hourly data to 120hrs too http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Damn, you can really see the LES potential off Lk Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Damn, you can really see the LES potential off Lk Ontario. Would the forecasted 850mb temps support lake effect snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Would the forecasted 850mb temps support lake effect snow? Yeah, initially especially. Looks like delta Ts of AOA 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Only have freebies but through 120 it looks like the EURO takes longer than the GFS/GEM to get things organized. May still be ok out in the east side of the subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Only have freebies but through 120 it looks like the EURO takes longer than the GFS/GEM to get things organized. May still be ok out in the east side of the subforum. Could be the EUROs biases into play? it's still good here 4-6'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Only have freebies but through 120 it looks like the EURO takes longer than the GFS/GEM to get things organized. May still be ok out in the east side of the subforum. Surprisingly it's not as bad as you think. Roughly 0.25-0.60" from DBQ-APX on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Could be the EUROs biases into play? it's still good here 4-6'' Not sure. Which bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Surprisingly it's not as bad as you think. Roughly 0.25-0.60" from DBQ-APX on south. It figures. Serves me right for (mis)interpreting freebie maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Could be the first warning event of the season for many... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Not sure. Which bias?Leaving energy in the SW behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 It figures. Serves me right for (mis)interpreting freebie maps. At 500mb it's much more unorganized though, compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Gem has it snowing for 60 hours straight here. Wow. I'd be in heaven. Don't get me wrong, I love quick hitters too that drop big accumulations in 6-8 hour timeframes, but I'd much rather have 6 inches spread out over 2 days than 8 inches in 4 or 5 hours and the fun is all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 The 0z Euro ensembles appear to be closer to the GFS in organizing things faster this weekend. The 500mb spaghetti plot shows that a majority of the members amplify the northern shortwave more aggressively than the op and thus phase it with the southern shortwave better. The mean has a surface low over western OH at 0z Sunday and over Buffalo at 12z Sunday (with a transfer ongoing). The ensemble mean is actually cooler at 850mb behind the storm which would probably bode better for LES prospects as well for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 6z GFS is a nice snowfall for a lot of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 looks like models are backing off phasing...lets see if they come back around. EDIT: not punting....plenty more time for the manageable time differences to trend in our favor but as modeled this isn't a very interesting event (not even seeing any weenie ensemble members). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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