A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 amazing...and not one model has picked this up...just the keen eyes of a satellite-watching forecaster. lol...sorry, but c'mon. so you're saying a last minute monster phase, 6-10" at ORD, and instant legend status for Gilbert isn't happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The HRRR out to 9z brings 2-3" of snow up to southern Kane/DuPage/Cook county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 so you're saying a last minute monster phase, 6-10" at ORD, and instant legend status for Gilbert isn't happening? Get the parade route ready in the loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I agree with everything they have said and been saying. Thing is also, temps will be quite cool in the low 20s during a majority of this event and as they said the lift seems impressive. Large swath should be able to get 6+ no doubt the swath of waa looks impressive, and probably will perform beyond expectations in a few places, but last minute phasing beyond what models are showing?....that's the stuff of weenie chat rooms and water vapor hallucinations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 1.9" mby, 2.2" ORD, jackpot in IKK with 6.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 3.1" call looking like it's in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Seeing some mood flakes downtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Weak Low Pressure System To Bring First Moderate Snowfall Of The Season To Southeast Lower Michigan http://weatherhistor...ring-first.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Been getting a good rain/sleet mix here since about noon. Ice is becoming visible on surfaces now. Gonna be a nasty ride home here in a half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Seeing some mood flakes downtown. Starting to see some moisture on the composite radar. MKX went with the warning. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 334 PM CST FRI DEC 13 2013 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY... .LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEGUN TO FALL NEAR THE LAKE AND WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE AND AT THAT POINT THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND THEN CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOWFALL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENTS IS BY NATURE VERY TOUGH TO PREDICT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW AHEAD OF TIME JUST WHERE ANY FOCUSED LAKE SNOW BANDS WILL SET UP. WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS CLOSE TO THE LAKE. WE ALSO FEEL THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT SOME AREAS WITHIN THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE LAKE COULD SEE AMOUNTS APPROACH OR EXCEED 8 INCHES...PARTICULARLY FROM RACINE NORTH TO OZAUKEE COUNTY WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY OUT TOWARD MADISON AND POINTS WEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 3.1" call looking like it's in trouble Yeah, I think you're a couple of inches low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 snow has been coming down here for 10 minutes all snow no mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Starting to see some moisture on the composite radar. MKX went with the warning. Yeah the light returns on composite are a good sign that we shouldn't be far from seeing some base returns and hopefully some light snow. I really thought MKX should and would go with an advisory, but whatever. Hope somebody in the warned area sees 6-8" so it's at least close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 amazing...and not one model has picked this up...just the keen eyes of a satellite-watching forecaster. lol...sorry, but c'mon. I'm not saying he's right, but that disco was written by Sam Lashley, a highly respected met at IWX. I am well acquainted with him and he is not one to go out on a limb with a forecast. Anyway you slice it, I'm looking good for at least 6" and hey, if ORD gets a surprise, all the better. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 my call looks low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 my call looks lowI still like 2" at MDW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I still like 2" at MDW recent signs point to that being a little low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is interesting looking for the Chicago metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 recent signs point to that being a little low.You talking about the suspicions that this has been phasing more than modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 21z RAP with .30" liquid here and still snowing. Bumping call to 2.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 on my way home from work...SW side of PIA about 15 min ago 1 mile from the airport ..light rain/sleet/snow temp 36...now here on the NW side light-mod snow temp 32 changed over and temp dropped at I-74/474 on the west side edit: just looked at radar..my obs match up perfectly to the thin lead heavier precip band over PIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 recent signs point to that being a little low. This is probably one of those times that LOT wishes it could split Cook county into multiple zones. Southeast part of the county looks like a lock for advisory amounts and possibly areas farther north along the lake if lake enhancement comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 You talking about the suspicions that this has been phasing more than modeled? radar trends look good, 18z runs continued 12z trend of slight qpf bumps, and I'm beginning to like our position for a pseudo pivot point. maybe 1-2 with the initial slug and another 1-2 with the defo-ish feature. (speaking about Chicago proper here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I like the trends so you're saying a last minute monster phase, 6-10" at ORD, and instant legend status for Gilbert isn't happening? Get the parade route ready in the loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I like something around 3" for ORD but wouldn't be surprised if they go a tad higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I like something around 3" for ORD but wouldn't be surprised if they go a tad higher. 3" is line with Caplan. I have over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 radar trends look good, 18z runs continued 12z trend of slight qpf bumps, and I'm beginning to like our position for a pseudo pivot point. maybe 1-2 with the initial slug and another 1-2 with the defo-ish feature. (speaking about Chicago proper here) Not ready to jump on just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Temperature is falling here, should be AOB freezing once the snow starts. Liking radar trends so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not ready to jump on just yet it's just a gut feeling...still seeing a nice northward push with the precip on the front end of the deeper moisture and it looks like it should push into the south metro a little earlier than i first thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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