stormtrackertf Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Any idea of qpf? NAM: 0.40" GFS: 0.49" GEM: 0.55" approx UK: 0.50" approx So far id say if anything 4-6" is a slightly conservative call. Euro has DTW down for .50" on the nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 RAP says the MKE LE headlines are in trouble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Latest SREF for DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Latest SREF for DTW DTX put down my accumulations by around almost 2", calling for 3-5. Well, now since they did that, I expect more snowfall.. 2 on top of the 5 they had me down for earlier..WSW here wo come... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 DTX put down my accumulations by around almost 2", calling for 3-5. Same here. 18z NAM around .4" for DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 KEOK reporting 32 and light rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Same here. 18z NAM around .4" for DTW Nam looks decent for most of the region....at least 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not sure if this is the case elsewhere but dewpoints have been running under guidance here. The good news is that it will help with evaporational cooling as precip begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Still thinking 4-6" for SEMI...3" screw zones and 7" lollies maybe Lets go with 5.7" here in AA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 18z NAM is much wetter along a ARR-DPA-ORD line with about .30"+ liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Final call for YYZ (airport): 5.2" Toronto (downtown): 4.7" IMBY: 6.7" Let's get tracking Looks like a good call. 12z NAM cut back amounts a touch but overall it's nothing drastic. My final call: 4" IMBY in northeast Scarborough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 18z NAM is much wetter along a ARR-DPA-ORD line with about .30"+ liquid. image.jpg Not saying this just because of the NAM but I wouldn't be surprised to see parts of Lake/Porter come in with 6" or perhaps a tad above, especially with any lake effect contribution as winds shift tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Just got upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning by Environment Canada. Maybe I should've bumped my prediction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not saying this just because of the NAM but I wouldn't be surprised to see parts of Lake/Porter come in with 6" or perhaps a tad above, especially with any lake effect contribution as winds shift tomorrow. RAP agrees and has a pseudo pivot point look right around that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Bit surprised at how far north the warmer air is progressing...30 IMBY,, Goshen, South Bend, although Hoosier's comment on evaporative cooling is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 LOL at alek hugging the RAP. As for the lake effect situation, a watch is just that, a watch. Chances are MKX will go with an advisory along some of the lakeshore counties which is the right thing to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Bit surprised at how far north the warmer air is progressing...30 IMBY,, Goshen, South Bend, although Hoosier's comment on evaporative cooling is encouraging. you're far enough north and have favorable overnight timing on your side, i wouldn't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 DTX with a great write up again, if slightly more pessimistic. Calling for 11:1 ratios, but with good reasoning laid out AS FOR AMOUNTS, THE LACK OF NOTEWORTHY MESOSCALE FORCING HAS RESULTED IN GREAT AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF QPF.HOWEVER, MODELED CROSS-SECTIONS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO OFFER SOMEREASON FOR PAUSE IN TERMS OF OVERALL EFFICIENCY. DESPITE A HEALTHY200MB DEEP DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE FORCINGFOR ASCENT WITHIN THIS LAYER AND EVEN LESS BENEATH IT. THIS WILLMAKE IT HARD OR IMPOSSIBLE TO ACHIEVE THE NECESSARY CONDITION OFSUPERSATURATION FOR OPTIMAL DENDRITE FORMATION. ALSO, WITH THE BULKOF ASCENT TAKING PLACE ABOVE THE DGZ WHERE IT IS MUCH COLDER WITHLESS ABSOLUTE MOISTURE CONTENT, A PLETHORA OF NEEDLE GENERATIONSEEMS LIKE A GOOD BET - PERHAPS BECOMING MODIFIED TO SOME EXTENT ASTHEY FALL THROUGH THE DGZ OR EVEN EXPERIENCE A BIT OF RIMING AS THESUB-850MB LAYER WARMS LATER IN THE DAY. GIVEN THIS INFORMATION,EVENT-AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS OF AROUND 11:1 SEEM APPROPRIATE. FORECASTAMOUNTS THEREFORE REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY: 3 TO 6 INCHES WITHLESS TO THE NORTH AND MORE TO THE SOUTH. THE GENERAL REGIME OF BROADSCALE ASCENT AND MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURRING IN THE ABSENCE OFSIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE FORCING WILL FAVOR LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES ON THEORDER OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH PER HOUR - A TRUE GRINDER EVENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I would love to see that 5.4" here in Livingston county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 DTX with a great write up again, if slightly more pessimistic. Calling for 11:1 ratios, but with good reasoning laid out The one thing I have noticed over there years is there is normally a band on the northern part of these systems that has high ratios. Not saying they are wrong rather I would not be surprised if there is an area that over performs snow wise but has same or even less QPF than other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If you live in Wayne, Monroe, Macomb , most eastern counties, hires, ref nam4km model is really good..Jackpot areas basically, especially Monroe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 IWX has some interesting comments on possible phasing not being picked up by models as they share their afternoon update. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ANDTHE ONE DIGGING IN ON THE BACKSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE SEEMS TOBE SOME PHASING ALREADY TAKING PLACE. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY KEPTTHESE WAVES SEPARATE SO THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH THISEVENING. MORE PHASING WOULD LEAD TO STRONGER WAVE AND A MORENEGATIVE TILT TO SYSTEM...LEADING TO A MORE IMPRESSIVE COMMA HEADAND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER BANDING. DESPITE THIS...MODELS INAGREEMENT ON STRONG ISENTROPIC SURGE TONIGHT WITH 3 TO 4 G/KG MIXINGRATIOS ADVECTING ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. GARCIAMETHOD INDICATES 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONE IF THIS STRONG LIFT VERIFIES.HIRES GUIDANCE TENDENCY IS TO BE OVERDONE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTIONPCPN BUT RADAR MOSAIC IN CENTRAL CONUS AND PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUMELEND CREDENCE TO THIS HIGHER SCENARIO. CAUTIOUSLY TEMPERED OVERALLAMOUNTS TO THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE TONIGHT WITH THIS FORCING.MODEST SURFACE REFLECTION SHOWN IN MODELS WITH A RELATIVELY BROADSURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH INVERTEDTROUGH THROUGH CWA AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE. 850-700MBFRONTOGENETICAL FORCING PIVOTS THROUGH CENTRAL CWA OVER THIS TROUGHAND THIS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ONSATURDAY BEFORE EXITING EASTERN AREAS LATE IN AFTERNOON. COBB METHODALSO REMAINS CONSISTENT AMONG GFS AND NAM ACROSS THE AREA WITHBUFKIT SNOW AMOUNTS IN LINE NICELY WITH OTHER MODEL OUTPUT. LATESTSREF QPF/SNOW PLUME DIAGRAMS AND 18Z NAM COMING IN AND REMAINCONSISTENT LENDING MORE CONFIDENCE TO EXPECTED SITUATION.THE RESULT IS AN EXPECTED SWATH OF 5 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSSWARNING AREA WITH BANDING PRODUCING THE EXPECTED HIGHER END 6 TO 8INCHES WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULDNOT BE OUT OF QUESTION WITH ANY STRONGER BANDING THAT PIVOTS OVER ACERTAIN LOCATION. HOWEVER...NO WAY TO NAIL DOWN THAT KIND OFDETAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 IWX coming out with some hot cheese sauce for your weenie with the phase talk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 IWX coming out with some hot cheese sauce for your weenie with the phase talk Got to feed the fish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 IWX has some interesting comments on possible phasing not being picked up by models as they share their afternoon update. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MAIN SHORT WAVE ANDTHE ONE DIGGING IN ON THE BACKSIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND THERE SEEMS TOBE SOME PHASING ALREADY TAKING PLACE. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY KEPTTHESE WAVES SEPARATE SO THIS IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO WATCH THISEVENING. MORE PHASING WOULD LEAD TO STRONGER WAVE AND A MORENEGATIVE TILT TO SYSTEM...LEADING TO A MORE IMPRESSIVE COMMA HEADAND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER BANDING. DESPITE THIS...MODELS INAGREEMENT ON STRONG ISENTROPIC SURGE TONIGHT WITH 3 TO 4 G/KG MIXINGRATIOS ADVECTING ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. GARCIAMETHOD INDICATES 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONE IF THIS STRONG LIFT VERIFIES.HIRES GUIDANCE TENDENCY IS TO BE OVERDONE WITH WARM AIR ADVECTIONPCPN BUT RADAR MOSAIC IN CENTRAL CONUS AND PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUMELEND CREDENCE TO THIS HIGHER SCENARIO. CAUTIOUSLY TEMPERED OVERALLAMOUNTS TO THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE TONIGHT WITH THIS FORCING.MODEST SURFACE REFLECTION SHOWN IN MODELS WITH A RELATIVELY BROADSURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY WITH INVERTEDTROUGH THROUGH CWA AS LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVERGENCE. 850-700MBFRONTOGENETICAL FORCING PIVOTS THROUGH CENTRAL CWA OVER THIS TROUGHAND THIS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES ONSATURDAY BEFORE EXITING EASTERN AREAS LATE IN AFTERNOON. COBB METHODALSO REMAINS CONSISTENT AMONG GFS AND NAM ACROSS THE AREA WITHBUFKIT SNOW AMOUNTS IN LINE NICELY WITH OTHER MODEL OUTPUT. LATESTSREF QPF/SNOW PLUME DIAGRAMS AND 18Z NAM COMING IN AND REMAINCONSISTENT LENDING MORE CONFIDENCE TO EXPECTED SITUATION.THE RESULT IS AN EXPECTED SWATH OF 5 TO 7 INCH SNOWFALL ACROSSWARNING AREA WITH BANDING PRODUCING THE EXPECTED HIGHER END 6 TO 8INCHES WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WOULDNOT BE OUT OF QUESTION WITH ANY STRONGER BANDING THAT PIVOTS OVER ACERTAIN LOCATION. HOWEVER...NO WAY TO NAIL DOWN THAT KIND OFDETAIL. Very interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 LOL at alek hugging the RAP. As for the lake effect situation, a watch is just that, a watch. Chances are MKX will go with an advisory along some of the lakeshore counties which is the right thing to do. you know me, always riding the model that gives me the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 amazing...and not one model has picked this up...just the keen eyes of a satellite-watching forecaster. lol...sorry, but c'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 My final call: 4" IMBY in northeast Scarborough.Im going with a general 10-15cm (4-6") across the GTA up until King city. Areas north of that but south of Barrie closer to 5-10cm (3-6").As of now areas like Mississauga and west towards Hamilton have a good shot at seeing 15-25cm (6-10"), however it will depend on how the winds align up. Some models, in particular, the EURO, is more robust in Toronto and has a different wind alignment. It"ll be interesting to see how the short term models depict this when it comes into range. For now that's my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Snow has started in Springfield according to local Met Ric Kearbey 11 minutes ago via mobile Snow is flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I agree with everything they have said and been saying. Thing is also, temps will be quite cool in the low 20s during a majority of this event and as they said the lift seems impressive. Large swath should be able to get 6+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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