A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Well there was a little bit better interaction, better QPF's expanding a touch north, and still a decent shot at some lake enhancement....but it appears not enough to mix out any of the drier mid-levels. While somewhere in LOT will likely see 6-10 inches ... my call was more for ORD...so that looks to be a swing and a miss on my part. But I suppose it is best to wait and see how everything pans out once it's all said and done. For the sake of not flip flopping I will stay with that range and, at the very least, begin to look for my white flag. Better luck next time a gracious bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 just for lol sake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm going to stick with my 1-2 for MDW, with more emphasis on the 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Should be an interesting time tracking its movements. Do you mean it looks like the shoreline of west end Toronto (Long Branch) looks to get in on it a bit? I am hoping to see some enhanced totals here from the lake. Hopefully its able to drift enough north to get the Port Credit area I think there's a decent chance it could make it to you. Certainly wouldn't rule it out. Amounts would need to be 10" to meet WSW criteria (given that there is no mixed precip or intense winds with this) so that is probably what they are thinking may happen. Certainly a possiblility depending on how the wind directions lock in place. NAM, GFS pumping out some 10-12" snow totals in the lake enhanced areas (using instantweathermaps). Anthony Farnell of Global going with 15-25cm in the west end lake areas. The RGEM is pushing north of 0.7" precip With good ratios who knows how this will turn out. Keep in mind the lake effect will begin early and thermal profiles will be much more favourable at this time. Not to go all but the high end potential is certainly there for a narrow corridor somewhere between Hamilton and Mississauga. RGEM snowfall liquid equivalent: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 milwaukee still hanging in there REA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATEDNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI1104 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2013.UPDATE...LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY AND WATCH HEADLINES STILL LOOK INGOOD SHAPE. STILL DEBATING AN UPGRADE TO LAKE EFFECT WARNING FORLAKESHORE COUNTIES UNDER THE WATCH.THE CENTER OF THE LOW AS OF 10 AM IS OVER THE OK PANHANDLE SO WINDSARE STILL LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SE WI. THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELSINDICATE SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS COULD IMPACT PARTS OF THELAKESHORE COUNTIES BY 3 PM. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY STILL LOOKS LIKEIT PICK UP AROUND 6 PM. THESE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATINGSNOW BANDS SETTING UP OVER KENOSHA...RACINE...MILWAUKEE ANDOZAUKEE COUNTIES AROUND 6 PM BEFORE SNOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE RESTOF SOUTHEAST WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 a gracious bust it's how I roll.... lol cheers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 models don't seem to be near as bullish on LE as MKE seems to be thinking....just not seeing it on some of the hi res guidance like the NMM that normally clue in. Good luck to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Well there was a little bit better interaction, better QPF's expanding a touch north, and still a decent shot at some lake enhancement....but it appears not enough to mix out any of the drier mid-levels. While somewhere in LOT will likely see 6-10 inches ... my call was more for ORD...so that looks to be a swing and a miss on my part. But I suppose it is best to wait and see how everything pans out once it's all said and done. For the sake of not flip flopping I will stay with that range and, at the very least, begin to look for my white flag. Better luck next time All things considered it's been a nice trend for the southern metro. Remember the earlier runs (GFS in particular) that were essentially complete whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Nice appetizer snow in Hamilton this morning that I wasn't expecting. Probably picked up close to an inch with decent snowfall rates since 11am. When I woke up and looked out the window I was confused because I thought that somehow I'd slept entirely through today and it was tomorrow morning already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NMM showing that "dry wedge/screw hole" more so over southern Lake County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Sref getting less decisive as the event gets closer lol... Now has a mean of 6" at dtw, but with a cluster of members between 4 and 6 and a cluster between 7 and 9 Actually srefs aside, very good model consensus with the 12z runs.....I will go with 4-7" for metro-Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Skilling going with with 2-6 heaviest south with 3-4 in city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Skilling going with with 2-6 heaviest south with 3-4 in city Is that his RPM model, or his forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 1.3" looks good for ORD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 All things considered it's been a nice trend for the southern metro. Remember the earlier runs (GFS in particular) that were essentially complete whiffs. yeah...certainly a boost compared to 48-72 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Is that his RPM model, or his forecast? was rpm but he added on for lake effect that he said model wasnt picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 1.3" looks good for ORD. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 was rpm but he added on for lake effect that he said model wasnt picking up. lol, Tom is going full weenie in his old age Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Uni. of Illinois WRF Marquette WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro is still good for a 4-6" across S/E Michigan, especially as you get closer to Ohio. Heaviest snowfall south of m59.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro is still good for a 4-6" across S/E Michigan, especially close to Ohio. Heaviest snowfall south of m59.. Any idea of qpf? NAM: 0.40" GFS: 0.49" GEM: 0.55" approx UK: 0.50" approx So far id say if anything 4-6" is a slightly conservative call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 So, when is ILX going to follow suit? I swear they always release their warnings 2-3 hours after everyone around them have upgraded. If they hadn't been so on the ball with the Tornado Warnings, I would figure they spend a lot of time sleeping in Lincoln. honestly I thought we should've had a warning along I72 with the 3am update after seeing what all the models did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 PL has commenced here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Any idea of qpf? Just about 0.5" on the dot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 EURO still the most aggressive with turning the winds pure easterly and driving the lake band into Toronto. I'm not sure though I'd side with it over some of the other super hi-res models that are showing otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Any idea of qpf? NAM: 0.40" GFS: 0.49" GEM: 0.55" approx UK: 0.50" approx So far id say if anything 4-6" is a slightly conservative call. Just about 0.5" on the dot Yup like .51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 EURO still the most aggressive with turning the winds pure easterly and driving the lake band into Toronto. I'm not sure though I'd side with it over some of the other super hi-res models that are showing otherwise. this is the massive wildcard. Will be a pure nowcasting event due to the narrow nature of the squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It'd be awesome if that happened. Band would likely lift north into Toronto. I see potential for that to happen. Looks like from around midnight tonight until the 4-6pm timeframe tomorrow the winds will keep it in the Hamilton-Oakville area. Then winds seem to edge more easterly into Sat night and could lift the band north towards you before dropping back down south and then ending by 6-7am Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yup like .51 With model consensus of 0.40-0.55" and I will go with 12-1 ratios.....that takes us at 4.8" to 6.6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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