Gilbertfly Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It's certainly a better system at 850 but crap at 700/500...weak push of moisture north with the pseudo warm front and we're left on the fringe...it's going to be a bad run for our area no doubt. Excellent run for central IL with a more developed defo feature. yeah...I-80 holding up the stop signs in terms of northward propagation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 screwhole between LE and synoptic snows nicely illustrated. This is going to be a really dry run for N. IL It ends up getting a little better through hr 27 .5 QPF splitting Chicago almost in half now.... Looks like it was just a continuation of the slower trend that started with last night's 00z run. 0.5 is a bump up from that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looks like it was just a continuation of the slower trend that started with last night's 00z run. 0.5 is a bump up from that run. well NCEP has the .5 cutoff maybe 15 35 miles south of what insta shows through H33 ... so I dunno...prolly best to side with NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 solid run for parts of northern indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Final call for YYZ (airport): 5.2" Toronto (downtown): 4.7" IMBY: 6.7" Let's get tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 WWA issued for COok County for 10pm tonight, I am assuming it is due to the potential for LES. Morning mets calling for less than 2" for the central portion of the Chicago area, almost nothing up near the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 WWA issued for COok County for 10pm tonight, I am assuming it is due to the potential for LES. Morning mets calling for less than 2" for the central portion of the Chicago area, almost nothing up near the border. 2.0001" custom call for YBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hourly point has 3.0" exactly here. I will go 1.8" for here. OT but season total so far is 5.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hourly point has 3.0" exactly here. I will go 1.8" for here. OT but season total so far is 5.3" 1.8 is a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hoping the lake effect settles just a tad further south. Will be happy with 3" or so though. 3.6" in my point. 5.7" where I sit in Racine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 not the best run up this way with heavier precip shunted to the south, but nonehteless shall be fun to watch this one evolve... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 fwiw the RAP is also trending south with northern extent each run...which is typical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 not the best run up this way with heavier precip shunted to the south, but nonehteless shall be fun to watch this one evolve... Trend not looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Looks like it was just a continuation of the slower trend that started with last night's 00z run. 0.5 is a bump up from that run. well NCEP has the .5 cutoff maybe 15 35 miles south of what insta shows through H33 ... so I dunno...prolly best to side with NCEP Gonna be a tight gradient for sure. Doesn't appear to be appear to be an appreciably worse run for Chicago proper but the farther west in the metro and out towards northwest IL looks a little lower. That's been the case across all model runs now. I'd still say 2-3, 2-4 for Bolingbrook Naperville area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hourly point has 3.0" exactly here. I will go 1.8" for here. OT but season total so far is 5.3" 1.8 is a good call Agreed, amounts should further tail off west of there too. I think you might do okay relatively speaking in the city, could be some added frictional convergence into Lake and Cook and if things haven't changed much from last night's run you might pick up some lake effect tomorrow afternoon into the evening. The 00z was showing nice land breeze convergence and h8 temps cooling to -10 to -11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Trend not looking good. there really hasn't been a trend. lil wobbles back and forth. seems like its never easy for our area lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 3-5" is a reasonable expectation for Detroit. More areas will likely be closer to 3" than 5". It's better than nothing. (just to be clear, I would be 10 times more thrilled about this event if it all fell in a period of a few hours. This is looking like a nuisance snowfall if anything). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Agreed, amounts should further tail off west of there too. I think you might do okay relatively speaking in the city, could be some added frictional convergence into Lake and Cook and if things haven't changed much from last night's run you might pick up some lake effect tomorrow afternoon into the evening. The 00z was showing nice land breeze convergence and h8 temps cooling to -10 to -11. yeah, it will freshen things up a bit and make for a nice wintery Saturday but I think our window for something a little more exciting is closed at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Agreed, amounts should further tail off west of there too. I think you might do okay relatively speaking in the city, could be some added frictional convergence into Lake and Cook and if things haven't changed much from last night's run you might pick up some lake effect tomorrow afternoon into the evening. The 00z was showing nice land breeze convergence and h8 temps cooling to -10 to -11. yeah, it will freshen things up a bit and make for a nice wintery Saturday but I think our window for something a little more exciting is closed at this point. Agreed. The players on the field are well sampled now. I could be wrong but I don't think it will be as sharp a cut off as the March storm that slammed Springfield and even got 9" up to southern LOT. The glass half full view I'm taking is we get a couple more inches when last winter we couldn't buy any snow in the Chicago area til February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Gonna be a tight gradient for sure. Doesn't appear to be appear to be an appreciably worse run for Chicago proper but the farther west in the metro and out towards northwest IL looks a little lower. That's been the case across all model runs now. I'd still say 2-3, 2-4 for Bolingbrook Naperville area. Silly gradients with this system....not to mention some LE potential on the northern fringes of LOT....just another fun day at the office for the boys at LOT, eh? good luck with everything today....I feel the office has handled everything very well with forecasting this somewhat slippery event...props Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Final call for YYZ (airport): 5.2" Toronto (downtown): 4.7" IMBY: 6.7" Let's get tracking Looks like a good call. 12z NAM cut back amounts a touch but overall it's nothing drastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Gonna be a tight gradient for sure. Doesn't appear to be appear to be an appreciably worse run for Chicago proper but the farther west in the metro and out towards northwest IL looks a little lower. That's been the case across all model runs now. I'd still say 2-3, 2-4 for Bolingbrook Naperville area. Silly gradients with this system....not to mention some LE potential on the northern fringes of LOT....just another fun day at the office for the boys at LOT, eh? good luck with everything today....I feel the office has handled everything very well with forecasting this somewhat slippery event...props Yeah the LE Is something I'm interested in seeing how it plays out. I hadn't looked at it much until last night's 00z runs because the parameters weren't all that favorable for northeast IL but they do get better with time tomorrow. With the trough still overhead later tomorrow, winds turn more northeast with improving lake induced instability and I'm wondering if the band hugs the Lake and Cook lakeshore. We haven't done the best with the first 2 systems (myself included last Sunday lol) but hopefully we have a better handle on this one. I'm not there today but was scheduled as an extra at 4am tomorrow to help out. If my drive is smooth to work that means we overforecast here haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Agreed. The players on the field are well sampled now. I could be wrong but I don't think it will be as sharp a cut off as the March storm that slammed Springfield and even got 9" up to southern LOT. The glass half full view I'm taking is we get a couple more inches when last winter we couldn't buy any snow in the Chicago area til February. Good way of looking at it! I didn't hit the 6" pre-total snowfall mark until mid to late January last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Agreed. The players on the field are well sampled now. I could be wrong but I don't think it will be as sharp a cut off as the March storm that slammed Springfield and even got 9" up to southern LOT. The glass half full view I'm taking is we get a couple more inches when last winter we couldn't buy any snow in the Chicago area til February. Good way of looking at it! I didn't hit the 6" pre-total snowfall mark until mid to late January last year. ORD was at 3.5" through January, which is pretty incredible when you think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 3-5" is a reasonable expectation for Detroit. More areas will likely be closer to 3" than 5". It's better than nothing. (just to be clear, I would be 10 times more thrilled about this event if it all fell in a period of a few hours. This is looking like a nuisance snowfall if anything). I think DTXs 4-6" call looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 That change in wind direction over southern Lake Michigan will be critical for the set up position of the dominant LES band. 4km NAM pounds Racine on the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 LOT snow map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I agree with Roger Smith....I think MIchiana will receive 5" which is my final call for Elkhart. This is from system snow. If the LES snow kicks in afterwards totals will be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 with a grain of salt....but 12Z HRRR putting the bullseye near Galesburg through 03Z ... FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 4km NAM at 10:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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