WestCoaster Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Great consensus for YYZ after today. Every run has Toronto with 6-8" with the Euro being the quietest with about 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 UKMET came north. Barring the Euro, now an excellent consensus. Could just be me but looks like the band of heaviest precip shifted south into central Indiana and Ohio. Barring I'm not accounting for any mix precip... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 IMO, LOT made a great call holding off on WWA for Cook and neighboring counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Did Euro hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Euro pretty much holds serve for this area in comparison to it's 12z run. I'll just ride with that and revise my earlier 1-2" call for the QC back down to 1". Still wouldn't be surprised to get a dusting or nothing at all, but the Euro seems pretty consistent, so we'll ride the 1" for a final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Great consensus for YYZ after today. Every run has Toronto with 6-8" with the Euro being the quietest with about 6" Latest Euro is pretty much the same as the other models. Showed 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 03z SREF mean now up to 0.43" liquid, 4.4" snow at VPZ. 0.29", 2.8" snow at ORD. Impressive trend the last 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 03z SREF mean now up to 0.43" liquid, 4.4" snow at VPZ. 0.29", 2.8" snow at ORD. Impressive trend the last 12 hours. 06z NAM went the same direction.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 NMM... hrw-nmm_eus_048_precip_p36.gif Can I see a potential for LES from this map during the storm for SW Ontario. If so given the blue streak overhead the 6" mark might be very obtainable. 0.62" @ 13:1 ratios.... Puts home in the 8" range. "Tootsie Pop" potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 06z gfs looks colder for Ohio. Freezing line doesn't really make it north of the river. Might take away the problem of mix IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 6z NAM veers the wind a bit more than the 0z run but it still probably wouldn't be enough to really get YYZ good with LES. EURO on the other hand drives the band right into Toronto. Even without LES, NAM is now sitting at about 0.65" QPF, it's wettest run yet. I'll bump my call for Toronto to 4-6" with 8" possible right along the lakeshore. West of the city (Mississauga-Hamilton) looks like a higher probability for say 6-9". Wouldn't be surprised if EC goes with a WSW for Peel/Halton/Hamilton this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 1.1 imby final call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 06z gfs looks colder for Ohio. Freezing line doesn't really make it north of the river. Might take away the problem of mix IMBY Now that we're inside 24 hrs I have to admit that the stubborn nam bringing that 850 line to I-70 worries me. I've seen it score the coupe in these tight situations. My call for CMH area is 2-5". 2 if we changeover, 5 if we don't. Seems like a safe bet to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 6z NAM veers the wind a bit more than the 0z run but it still probably wouldn't be enough to really get YYZ good with LES. EURO on the other hand drives the band right into Toronto. Even without LES, NAM is now sitting at about 0.65" QPF, it's wettest run yet. I'll bump my call for Toronto to 4-6" with 8" possible right along the lakeshore. West of the city (Mississauga-Hamilton) looks like a higher probability for say 6-9". Wouldn't be surprised if EC goes with a WSW for Peel/Halton/Hamilton this afternoon. SREF mean bumped QPF up to 0.61" at YYZ... the ARW model is also brining the lake effect band right through toronto, while the RGEM, and NMM hover it just south of the city. Wonder which high res model will handle this situation better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I have learned this season to take any modest bump in QPF the day before a storm with a grain of salt. It has already burned us twice in Ohio this season. Both the pre thanksgiving storm and the storm last week were all significantly overdone with respect to QPF, especially the day prior. The models tend to broad brush these values. Realistically there will be lollipops of 2" and 7". For this event, I'd deduct 30% from the NAM's values for a general expectation, and use the actual NAM QPF for a max lollipop that only a few will actually see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Classic LOT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 DTX has a WWA for all of the CWA now. 3-5" north of 69, 4-6" south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 DTX says 50/50 on getting to 6", I'll take those chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Hi-Res looks good for the lake enhancement around Hamilton to Mississauga. NAM and ARW lock the band in nicely around Hamilton/Burlington on Sat. Like SSC said, wouldn't be surprised to see EC pull an WSW for this for west end of Lake Ontario....then again it's EC so anything can be possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Classic LOT... looks fine based on their disco. cook is a long county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 looks fine based on their disco. cook is a long county. there is a lake effect snow watch/advisory from milwaukee to kenosha but nothing in Lake co IL?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I have 2-5" in my p&c, yet no lake effect snow advisory here or nothing, haha. Looking at a ENE/NE fetch all the way till tomorrow night starting this afternoon. Details on the LES watch. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI346 AM CST FRI DEC 13 2013...LAKE EFFECT SNOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN TONIGHT THROUGHSATURDAY. COLD EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THERELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL SET THE STAGE FOR APROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. THE SNOWSHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE EXPECT THEINITIAL SNOW TO BE RATHER LIGHT. BY EVENING...CONDITIONS BECOMEEVEN MORE FAVORABLE AND AT THAT POINT THE SNOW SHOULD INCREASE ININTENSITY AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...DIMINISHINGSATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.SNOWFALL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENTS IS BY NATURE VERY TOUGH TOPREDICT. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW AHEAD OF TIME JUST WHERE ANYFOCUSED LAKE SNOW BANDS WILL SET UP. WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT MUCH OFTHE AREA WILL SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HIGHESTAMOUNTS CLOSE TO THE LAKE. WE ALSO FEEL THERE IS A PRETTY GOODCHANCE THAT SOME AREAS WITHIN THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE LAKECOULD SEE 8 INCHES OR MORE AND THIS IS WHY WE HAVE A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WATCH IN EFFECT THERE. WE SHOULD GET MORE INFORMATION TODAYTO HELP US DECIDE WHETHER TO UPGRADE THAT AREA TO A LAKE EFFECTSNOW WARNING...OR TO SETTLE ON A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY.GIVEN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW...THIS LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILLSPREAD ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...ACCUMULATIONS WILL FALL OFF QUICKLY OUT TOWARD MADISON AND POINTSWEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 there is a lake effect snow watch/advisory from milwaukee to kenosha but nothing in Lake co IL?? models don't show much if any lake effect in Lake Co...certainly not headline worthy...model QPF is in the .1 to .2 range across the board there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 it's pretty obvious why LOT didn't extend headlines north...models have consistently painted a minimum between the MKE lake effect and synoptic snows to the south. Sometimes you just get screw holed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 12z NAM coming in a hair stronger...might be a bad sign for OV posters with borderline thermals. Doesn't appear to be too jacked though. Possibly just quicker. Less agressive with moisture on warm front like feature on the northern fringe. 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 6z NAM veers the wind a bit more than the 0z run but it still probably wouldn't be enough to really get YYZ good with LES. EURO on the other hand drives the band right into Toronto. Even without LES, NAM is now sitting at about 0.65" QPF, it's wettest run yet. I'll bump my call for Toronto to 4-6" with 8" possible right along the lakeshore. West of the city (Mississauga-Hamilton) looks like a higher probability for say 6-9". Wouldn't be surprised if EC goes with a WSW for Peel/Halton/Hamilton this afternoon. A met from TWN said on twitter last night they expect the squall to start down around Hamilton until early Sat afternoon, then veer a bit north. Some models take up far enough to hit TO, others stop it in Halton/Peel. Virtually all models show a higher blob of snow from TO-Hamilton tho by the time it's all said and done. Here's hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 screwhole between LE and synoptic snows nicely illustrated. This is going to be a really dry run for N. IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 screwhole between LE and synoptic snows nicely illustrated. This is going to be a really dry run for N. IL It ends up getting a little better through hr 27 .5 QPF splitting Chicago almost in half now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathernut Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Bitterly cold air will be locked in and mixing issues may be very slight even where thicknesses edge into marginal range. My call is about 5-8" from central IL across n/c IN into n OH and se MI, with a separate area of 5-10 inch falls in eastern WI partly connected through Chicago although I see where wind directions are mainly unfavourable at various times in the event for Chicago LES (east then north to northwest)... across southern ON general 3-6 inch snowfalls but 7-12 inches in bands from about Clarkson to Niagara (north). Set-up will pulverize Burlington and Oakville more than Toronto with wind direction about 080 deg backing to 040 late in event. QEW (highway not model ) will be bad, methinks, but further north not quite as bad. Event ends with minor secondary interacting with -15 C temps over +4 C lakes and this can only mean localized heavy streamers from odd directions on either side of trough being absorbed into coastal. Western MI could therefore get slammed in Sunday-Monday time frame as winds come around to NW'ly direction, eventually this also hits northern OH. Some specific point forecasts: ORD 4.0" MKE 7.5" MSN 1.9" LAF 6.5" CMI 5.5" SBN-FWA 5.0" GRR 3.7* DTW 3.8" CLE 3.3" CMH 3.5" YXU 2.7" (7 cm) YYZ 3.3" (8 cm) YHM 4.5" (11 cm) but 10" (25 cm) at some point around Oakville-Burlington point max could be Sheboygan WI at 14" or somewhere between there and MKE This is a great start to winter, ORD anomaly could reach -8 F by middle of next week. Thx for the fantastic write-up. Living in downtown Hamilton spitting distance from the harbour, I've always felt that a 75-80 degree flow off Lake Ontario is the best direction for lake effect. YHM and points SE would probably need a 60-70degree flow. I hope this forecast of 80 backing to 40 materializes. Could be great around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 It ends up getting a little better through hr 27 It's certainly a better system at 850 but crap at 700/500...weak push of moisture north with the pseudo warm front and we're left on the fringe...it's going to be a bad run for our area no doubt. Excellent run for central IL with a more developed defo feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.