December 13-14th Winter Storm

[Thundersnow12]

In my personal experience, not the best to be on the northern fringes of these things as the storm rolls in. We will see how this develops tomorrow, but I'm gonna have to be a little less optimistic this time. I'm saying ORD gets less than an inch, and 1-2 at MDW.

 

must not been around when the NW trend was a real way of life. Many many storms did it.

[ilstormchaser]

must not been around when the NW trend was a real way of life. Many many storms did it.

 

Yep. I remember a lot of times when the really strong storms end up going further NW than what the models show. I don't think this will be the case with this

system though.

[buckeye]

Oh I think it's mostly snow as well. I'm concerned about these high surface temps making it very difficult for snow to accumulate.

 

Can't disagree.  At this point I'm all about seeing how much we can rack up for December.  It looks like whatever snowcover we get will be destroyed by a brief but potentially torchy warm-up later next week. After that we re-boot and see what happens.   Hopefully a similar pattern resets.

[blizzardof96]

What would be a good wind direction for the Mississauga area? I would just like to know the general wind direction someone in south Mississauga would look for in these events since they happen occasionally throughout the winter. Thanks 

An ideal setup for you involves an ENE flow or a 60 to 80 degree flow with 90 being due east. Low level moisture and inversion height is also very important in addition to delta T values. ∆T's look to be in the 11-16c range which is pretty favourable, just concerned about wind direction being aligned more favourably for the hammer, oakville and mississauga as opposed to the city of toronto besides lake shore areas.

[Thunder Road]

No real change in the 0z RGEM.  0.3" contour still runs just south of Chicago, 0.4" just south of mby.

[Geos]

4km NAM.

 

 

Might need some lake effect snow advisories from here on north if the model has a good clue.

[Thunder Road]

Good consensus emerging among the first three of the night.

 

3.1" call here still looking good.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Looks to be quite cold ahead of the system courtesy of the NE wind, by far Toronto's coldest wind direction.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

0z GFS looks good for Toronto.

[mimillman]

GFS slightly north of 18z but no big change.

[hm8]

00z GFS

 

[mimillman]

If the GFS were to verify, St. Louis would get 6 inches of snow.

[Snowstorms]

Environment Canada has issued a weather statement for Toronto; and for regions along the shorelines of Lake Ontario and Erie till Kingston.

 

City of Toronto
10:31 PM EST Thursday 12 December 2013
Special weather statement for 
City of Toronto continued

Widespread snowfall event possible this weekend.

A disturbance forecast to emerge from the Southern Plains States is forecast to track northeast towards the Great Lakes Friday. Latest indications suggest this low will follow a path across Central Ohio Saturday to Central New York State by Sunday morning.

As a result, snow ahead of this disturbance is expected to reach Southwestern Ontario Friday night then spread northeast into the remainder of the regions on Saturday.

Current indications suggest a 10 to 15 cm snowfall event for many areas by Saturday night. This could be the first significant snowfall of the season for some locales including Windsor, Kitchener-Waterloo, Hamilton and Toronto which so far have escaped most of the lake effect snowstorms experienced over the past couple of weeks.

There is some potential for locally higher amounts of snow from this system in areas around the west end of Lake Ontario, as cold easterly winds pick up extra moisture from the relatively mild waters of the lake. Areas near the north shore of Lake Erie may also receive higher amounts as they will be closest to the track of the low.

How far north the snow spreads into the regions and the total snowfall amounts received will depend on the exact track and intensity of this disturbance. If the low pressure centre tracks a little further north than currently expected, total snowfall amounts may be somewhat higher by Sunday morning.

Motorists should be prepared for poor winter driving conditions after the snow arrives by Saturday.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

 

[Roger Smith]

Bitterly cold air will be locked in and mixing issues may be very slight even where thicknesses edge into marginal range. My call is about 5-8" from central IL across n/c IN into n OH and se MI, with a separate area of 5-10 inch falls in eastern WI partly connected through Chicago although I see where wind directions are mainly unfavourable at various times in the event for Chicago LES (east then north to northwest)... across southern ON general 3-6 inch snowfalls but 7-12 inches in bands from about Clarkson to Niagara (north). Set-up will pulverize Burlington and Oakville more than Toronto with wind direction about 080 deg backing to 040 late in event. QEW (highway not model ) will be bad, methinks, but further north not quite as bad. Event ends with minor secondary interacting with -15 C temps over +4 C lakes and this can only mean localized heavy streamers from odd directions on either side of trough being absorbed into coastal. Western MI could therefore get slammed in Sunday-Monday time frame as winds come around to NW'ly direction, eventually this also hits northern OH.

 

Some specific point forecasts:

 

ORD 4.0"

MKE 7.5"

MSN 1.9"

LAF 6.5"

CMI 5.5"

SBN-FWA 5.0"

GRR 3.7*

DTW 3.8"

CLE 3.3"

CMH 3.5"

YXU 2.7" (7 cm)

YYZ 3.3" (8 cm)

YHM 4.5" (11 cm)

 

but 10" (25 cm) at some point around Oakville-Burlington

 

point max could be Sheboygan WI at 14" or somewhere between there and MKE

 

This is a great start to winter, ORD anomaly could reach -8 F by middle of next week.

 

 

 

 

[KeenerWx]

Looking real nice for Lafayette. I think heaviest stays just to my south (by about 20 miles), so I'll go with 2.9" here.

EDIT: I'll throw a number for Lafayette--6.1" looks good.

[Jrad08]

^{Local METs calling for 2-3 slushy inches due to temps getting around 33. Just north 20 miles predictions are 3-6 range..}  

[mississaugasnow]

Bitterly cold air will be locked in and mixing issues may be very slight even where thicknesses edge into marginal range. My call is about 5-8" from central IL across n/c IN into n OH and se MI, with a separate area of 5-10 inch falls in eastern WI partly connected through Chicago although I see where wind directions are mainly unfavourable at various times in the event for Chicago LES (east then north to northwest)... across southern ON general 3-6 inch snowfalls but 7-12 inches in bands from about Clarkson to Niagara (north). Set-up will pulverize Burlington and Oakville more than Toronto with wind direction about 080 deg backing to 040 late in event. QEW (highway not model ) will be bad, methinks, but further north not quite as bad. Event ends with minor secondary interacting with -15 C temps over +4 C lakes and this can only mean localized heavy streamers from odd directions on either side of trough being absorbed into coastal. Western MI could therefore get slammed in Sunday-Monday time frame as winds come around to NW'ly direction, eventually this also hits northern OH.

 

Some specific point forecasts:

 

ORD 4.0"

MKE 7.5"

MSN 1.9"

LAF 6.5"

CMI 5.5"

SBN-FWA 5.0"

GRR 3.7*

DTW 3.8"

CLE 3.3"

CMH 3.5"

YXU 2.7" (7 cm)

YYZ 3.3" (8 cm)

YHM 4.5" (11 cm)

 

but 10" (25 cm) at some point around Oakville-Burlington

 

point max could be Sheboygan WI at 14" or somewhere between there and MKE

 

This is a great start to winter, ORD anomaly could reach -8 F by middle of next week.

Nice write up. I can honestly say I didn't think I would ever see someone be as specific as to include clarkson here haha. I am in Port Credit.  Hoping to get involved in some of the lake effect as well. 

[ILSNOW]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
950 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

WIZ052-059-060-065-066-071-072-130800-
SHEBOYGAN-WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHEBOYGAN...WEST BEND...
PORT WASHINGTON...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...RACINE...
KENOSHA
950 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013


...LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FIRST OF THE LATEST MODEL
RUNS SHOW MILWAUKEE AND OZAUKEE COUNTIES AS THE FAVORABLE
LOCATIONS FOR A PERIOD OF HIGH SNOWFALL RATES UNDER A DOMINANT
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. TIMING OF THE ONSET OF THIS SNOW BAND AND
IT/S EXACT LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD IMPACT THE
EVENING RUSH HOUR AND WEEKEND TRAVELERS.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ELSEWHERE ALONG THE LAKESHORE...AND PERSIST THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL
RATES AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. WITH EASTERLY FLOW...EXPECT ANY OF
THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH ONE TO TWO COUNTIES INLAND
FROM THE LAKE.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES...AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW FORECASTS CAN CHANGE
FREQUENTLY.

[snowstormcanuck]

Environment Canada has issued a weather statement for Toronto; and for regions along the shorelines of Lake Ontario and Erie till Kingston.

 

They bumped the range up.

[cyclone77]

Looks like the QC will get blanked, much like LAF did with that bigger system awhile back. 

[WestCoaster]

Amazing 00Z REG-GEM run. Holy smokes, absolutely pummels YYZ

[Geos]

0z GGEM

 

[stormtrackertf]

DTX's median snowfall probability forecast.



Probability of at least 4 inches of snowfall, storm total:



Probability of at least 6 inches of snowfall, storm total:



Very tight gradients.

[Snowstorms]

They bumped the range up.

 

Yeah something you don't really see with Environment Canada lol. 

 

Amazing 00Z REG-GEM run. Holy smokes, absolutely pummels YYZ

 

Yeah amazing run. YYZ gets 15-20cm on this run and the LES bands are quite visible on the precip charts. High snow ratios should definitely help increase totals. 

[on_wx]

Environment Canada has issued a weather statement for Toronto; and for regions along the shorelines of Lake Ontario and Erie till Kingston.

 

Woah, EC special weather statements now appear on the forecast region alerts map. Must have started today?

http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html

[Gilbertfly]

NMM...

 

 

[Thundersnow12]

FWIW, it looks like the 3z RAP is slower with the southern wave moving through the TX PH at 21z tomorrow compared to the NAM/GFS.

[Hoosier]

I'm thinking 5-7" for LAF based on near-climo ratios with model blend of nearly .5 to greater than 6 tenths liquid.  7" may be a tad optimistic but still within the realm of possibility and no use getting too cute.  Warning could probably be justified for LAF proper given our lack of snow so far this season but with borderline warning amounts and weekend timing, not sure we will get one.

[Thunder Road]

UKMET came north.  Barring the Euro, now an excellent consensus.

 

[harrisale]

Why must I be out of town again. Rotten luck. Looks like the lake could really kick up snow totals for my backyard. This system is really trending nicely.