snowstormcanuck Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 0z NAM is coming back south. awesome consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 A lot more moisture on this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 A lot more moisture on this run...ya by a good amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This is going to be a great run....Much more organized as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 13, 2013 Author Share Posted December 13, 2013 Even though it started farther south...In the end decent precip still makes it up to ORD/DTW. The system is a bit more developed and looks better at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 WWA issued for northern IN counties except those in LOT cwa. I know there's still some uncertainty regarding the track, but you'd have to think LOT will issue an advisory for the southern portions.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 750 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013 ..MORE SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING .SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA DURING EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN GRADUALLY TAPER IN INTENSITY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ILZ019-021>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-131000- /O.NEW.KLOT.WW.Y.0010.131214T0000Z-131214T1800Z/ LA SALLE-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE IN- PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OTTAWA...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE... PONTIAC...WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO... RENSSELAER...FOWLER 750 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013 /850 PM EST THU DEC 12 2013/ ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST /7 PM EST/ FRIDAY TO NOON CST /1 PM EST/ SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM CST FRIDAY TO NOON CST SATURDAY. * TIMING...SNOW BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATION...TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. * SNOWFALL RATES...UP TO ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR...THOUGH HIGHER RATES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 ya by a good amount Most definitely. The best run for us by far! Looks like it would be a good hit basically for areas along and to the north of US Rte. 36 in Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Ya I was going to say a lot more gulf moist being brought up. If this holds true could really boost amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 If the nam pans out, honestly we could be in for a nice surprise in S/E Michigan. And considering temps are perfect for some higher ratio snows.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I'm digging the higher QPF trend...like to see it hold up with some of the higher res mods as we progress here lol....love that enhancement tongue through LOT @ H54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilstormchaser Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I have been watching the model runs closely the last few days. I am liking what I am seeing for the Peoria area. Looks like a solid 5-6 inches or so per tonights NAM. It's showing about .8-.9 inches of precip but it usually is too high. Perfect timing as my snow thrower is broke, lol. It locked up on me last night when I pulled the cord to start it. Considering its about 14 years old, I think it has seen its day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I have been watching the model runs closely the last few days. I am liking what I am seeing for the Peoria area. Looks like a solid 5-6 inches or so per tonights NAM. It's showing about .8-.9 inches of precip but it usually is too high. Perfect timing as my snow thrower is broke, lol. It locked up on me last night when I pulled the cord to start it. Considering its about 14 years old, I think it has seen its day Yeah, definitely one of the best runs of the NAM for Central IL overall so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 15z run now pretty well clustered between 2" and 4" Aaaaaand, following the trends for DTW, the 21z SREF suite has a mean of 5", and an pretty even spread from 3" to 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Damn, nice run for almost everyone in this sub-forum A nice 5-8" coming in for the GTA, beautiful run. High snow ratios and by the looks of it, LES looks to be a factor. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Something has been irritating me with the NAM that I can't figure out. It keeps trying to take surface temps to freezing here overnight Friday/early Saturday. There's that menacing LLJ of 15-20 kts overhead (!) but considering time of day and ongoing precip, it just doesn't really add up and I haven't seen another model showing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Something has been irritating me with the NAM that I can't figure out. It keeps trying to take surface temps to freezing here overnight Friday/early Saturday. There's that menacing LLJ of 15-20 kts overhead (!) but considering time of day and ongoing precip, it just doesn't really add up and I haven't seen another model showing this. Yep, takes surface temps above freezing almost to Cleveland in Ohio. We'd have snow melting on contact for most of us. It's definitely a concern if correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 21z sref were much colder than the nam 00z run. 850 0 never gets North of river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Yep, takes surface temps above freezing almost to Cleveland in Ohio. We'd have snow melting on contact for most of us. It's definitely a concern if correct. This time we don't have temps in the mid 60s the day before. Ground is frozen and snow covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Not totally unexpected given the 18z NAM, but 21z SREF mean jumped back up to 0.33" of liquid (3.3" of snow) for VPZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 The 9" lollipop right atop Mount Oakland legitimizes this potential outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Damn, nice run for almost everyone in this sub-forum A nice 5-8" coming in for the GTA, beautiful run. High snow ratios and by the looks of it, LES looks to be a factor. . 8" seems like a stretch. NAM never gets the flow to veer to more than 75, maybe 80 degrees, which won't get Toronto into the LES game except for the Islands and may the immediate shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 This time we don't have temps in the mid 60s the day before. Ground is frozen and snow covered. True, but I'm guessing just based on the maps that temps get up to the mid/upper 30's and with it being during the day...tough to get much to accumulate. Still though, I'd lean on the much more consistent GFS which really hasn't waffled much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 In my personal experience, not the best to be on the northern fringes of these things as the storm rolls in. We will see how this develops tomorrow, but I'm gonna have to be a little less optimistic this time. I'm saying ORD gets less than an inch, and 1-2 at MDW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 In a turn of events....the 4km NAM seems less wet than the 84hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 8" seems like a stretch. NAM never gets the flow to veer to more than 75, maybe 80 degrees, which won't get Toronto into the LES game except for the Islands and may the immediate shoreline. Ratio's at the onslaught of the event look pretty impressive with the DGZ ~450mb deep. Centre of LP transfers to the coast before the area of low pressure lifts north enough which robs us of flow greater then 80 degree's. Still really nice run, especially for oakville/ hamilton with that NE lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 True, but I'm guessing just based on the maps that temps get up to the mid/upper 30's and with it being during the day...tough to get much to accumulate. Still though, I'd lean on the much more consistent GFS which really hasn't waffled much. I feel good about this not having significant mixing issues....minor issues towards the end? yes....but I think it's primarily snow front to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Chicago NWS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS AZ THIS EVE IS BEGINNING TO TAP INTO THESUBTROPICAL JET AND SEEING QUICKLY COOLING CLOUD TOPS ACROSS THESOUTHERN PLAINS. ALL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THISPOSITION AND LEAD VORT ENTERING THE TX PANHANDLE...WHICH ACTUALLYLOOKS TO BE THE INSTIGATOR TO THE SNOWFALL FRI AFTERNOON INWESTERN/CENTRAL IL. THE QUICK PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE AND BROADMOIST ADVECTION SURGE NORTHWARD OCCURS INTO THE FORECAST AREAMAINLY DURING THE EVE...ALTHOUGH DO EXPECT SOME SNOW LIKELY TOHAVE BEGUN AROUND THE PONTIAC AREA PRIOR TO 6 PM...EVEN GIVENSLOWER SOLUTIONS. SNOWFALL LOOKS TO SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHCHICAGO METRO DURING THE EARLY EVE AND LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THEMETRO BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THE HEAVIER RATES ARE FAVORED MORE SOACROSS THE SOUTH. THE ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AND MODEST TIGHTENINGOF THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT IN PLACE ALLOW FOR THELIKELIHOOD OF SOME EVENING BANDING IN THE ADVISORY AREA WHERESNOWFALL RATES WOULD EXCEED ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR FOR A PERIOD.THE 00Z NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND THAT LEADS TO ALITTLE LESS TOTAL QPF FURTHER NORTH...SUCH AS INTO CHICAGO. ALL INALL IT PUTS IT CLOSER TO THE MEAN SOLUTION OF THE NCEPMODELS/EC/GEM. THERE SHOULD BE A TIGHT GRADIENT IN SNOW THROUGHMID FRI EVE...MAYBE EVEN TIGHTER THAN GUIDANCE IS INDICATING...ANDEVEN SEEING THAT HINTED AT WITHIN THE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OFHIGH RES MODELS THAT HAVE SOLUTIONS THAT FAR OUT. THIS SHOULDBECOME MORE DIFFUSE INTO OVERNIGHT AS THE MID-LEVEL WAVE OF THENORTHERN STREAM INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM AND THE AREAFILLS IN WITH LIFT AND SATURATION.THOUGHT ABOUT INCLUDING A FEW COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH IN THEADVISORY INCLUDING COOK...BUT HAVE OPTED TO WAIT AT THIS TIME.THERE WILL IN ALL LIKELIHOOD BE A GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH ACROSS COOK COUNTY...PLUS THERE COULD BE SOME LAKEENHANCEMENT SATURDAY MORNING AND MAYBE EVEN LAKE EFFECT SNOWSHOWERS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SO WOULD RATHER GIVE THE MIDNIGHTSHIFT SOME LEEWAY TO NOT ONLY BETTER REFINE WHERE THE SYNOPTICGRADIENT OF SNOWFALL WILL BE AND JUST HOW TIGHT IT WILL BE...BUTALSO DURATION OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 Ratio's at the onslaught of the event look pretty impressive with the DGZ ~450mb deep. Centre of LP transfers to the coast before the area of low pressure lifts north enough which robs us of flow greater then 80 degree's. Still really nice run, especially for oakville/ hamilton with that NE lake enhancement. post-26371-1386903559_thumb.png What would be a good wind direction for the Mississauga area? I would just like to know the general wind direction someone in south Mississauga would look for in these events since they happen occasionally throughout the winter. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 I feel good about this not having significant mixing issues....minor issues towards the end? yes....but I think it's primarily snow front to back. Oh I think it's mostly snow as well. I'm concerned about these high surface temps making it very difficult for snow to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted December 13, 2013 Share Posted December 13, 2013 In my personal experience, not the best to be on the northern fringes of these things as the storm rolls in. We will see how this develops tomorrow, but I'm gonna have to be a little less optimistic this time. I'm saying ORD gets less than an inch, and 1-2 at MDW. Yeah I agree. I've seen this too many times where the gradient ends up being much tighter than predicted. I expect to watch this thing march in from the SW on radar, and the northern edge of precip never fully makes it into our area. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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