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December 13-14th Winter Storm

Chicago Storm

By Chicago Storm,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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Gilbertfly

Gilbertfly

Posted
Posted

you'd get my vote for call of the last few winters 

 

 

cool and props for going public with the call

 

 

thanks guys...it's been a trying day on a personal level with health in the family...but this has been keeping my mind occupied...

 

and in all honesty, as I mentioned after the first system....I just like digging into the action when the system is directly linked to data void pacific systems that eventually come on shore...especially when they are far enough away from Asia where the data becomes grey and obviously still not close enough to North America...aka, no man's land

 

we'll see...

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Tim from Springfield (IL)

Tim from Springfield (IL)

Posted
Posted

WWA coming shortly for the entire ILX CWA:

 

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=IL&prodtype=discussion#AFDILX

000FXUS63 KILX 122136AFDILXArea Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Lincoln IL336 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2013.DISCUSSION...ISSUED 335 PM CST Thu Dec 12 2013A quick update at 330 pm...after coordination with surroundingoffices... we will be issuing a winter weather advisory thisafternoon for all of our area for Friday afternoon into Saturdaymorning. Snow totals will be mainly 3 to 5 inches north of I-70and around 3 inches total south of I-70, with possible sleet andfreezing rain early on in that area. This update to add codingfor a winter weather advisory at the end of the AFD.Previous discussion... The main focus for the short term is thestorm system for Friday afternoon into Saturday. Snow amountsand precip type issues lead the way. The latest model runscontinue to show variation in the mesoscale details, but theoverall pattern of broad isentropic lift and higher moisturecontent should lead to a snowy end to the week. Some sleet-freezing rain issues remain for areas south of I-70, with a mix ofsleet-snow possibly in our western areas as far north as I-72.Warmer air surging into Missouri has pushed some highs near 43, inareas with no snow cover. Air that warm would raise the potentialfor all rain in our S-SW areas for a time Friday afternoon. Areturn of cold air Friday night should help to diminish thatpotential, but that scenario would lower snow totals at the veryleast.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night.Warmer air returning to the area today on the back side of thesurface ridge will help keep low temps tonight about 15 to 18degrees warmer than last night...with lows generally in the teens.Steady south winds will add a chill to the air.Friday will see our storm system take shape. The primary surfacelow is forecast to deepen over northern Texas as a warm frontdevelops to the NE of the low into central IL. That warm frontwill merge with an advancing cold front from the north to set up abaroclinic zone across our forecast area. Isentropic lift willintensify Friday afternoon helping to saturate the lower boundarylayer from west to east across the middle of our forecast areafrom Rushville toward BMI and CMI. Farther south and north of thataxis, precipitation will be less intense, with precip type issuesto the south. Forecast soundings indicate an initial period ofsleet may develop from Jacksonville to Springfield and southeastto Effingham. As previously mentioned, if the warm air surge southof the warm front is as strong tomorrow as today across Missouri,a period of change to all rain may even develop along and south ofthat line. We are leaning toward a colder solution and a wintrymix as the more likely scenario. That is mainly due to theexpectation that colder air will continue flow south into ourforecast area despite the surface low not moving into Arkansasuntil 12z Saturday.The stalled frontal boundary and gradual rotation of thebaroclinic zone over central IL complicates the precip typesolution, but feeling is for snowfall as the primary-type alongand north of I-72 in the first 12 hours of the event, where thehighest precip amounts are expected. We have the potential forperiods of banded snow to develop in the stationary regions ofisentropic lift and coupled-jet dynamics. That could push snowfalltotals toward 6 inches across Schuyler county and toward McLeancounty. The axis of heavier snows has shifted with each model run,the most recent change being a northward shift from the I-72corridor toward I-74. Mesoscale features will likely develop inthe synoptic scale forcing. For now we will not issue a watch for6+ inches of snow, with the expectation that snow amounts willremain in the advisory range of 3-5 inches along and north ofI-72.South of I-72, some sleet or freezing rain would reduce snowtotals through Friday evening, but a secondary wave of forcing forprecip will lift from SW to NE across southeast IL from midnightto noon on Saturday. Enough cold air should be in place for thatprecip to be all snowfall, which could accumulate up to 3 inchesacross our southeastern counties in the last half of the event.Snow will shut down Saturday afternoon as the low pulls into theTennessee Valley. Colder air will surge into the area on NW winds,which may blow and drift the snow Sat afternoon, especially westof I-55 where winds will increase sooner.Saturday night should see clouds lingering with sustained W-NW windsin the 10 to 15 mph range as pressure rises continue ahead ofadvancing high pressure. The cold advection will cause lows to dipinto the teens, after lows on Friday night in the mid to upper20s.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday.Dry conditions are expected for the end of the weekend and much ofnext week as the storm track remains north of IL. A glancing blowof snow may reach as far south as northern IL on Tuesday and Tuesnight, but our areas should remain dry. We should see highs formuch of the week approach the freezing mark in the north and midto upper 30s south as the core of cold air remains across theGreat Lakes.Shimon&&
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OHweather

OHweather

Posted
Posted

GRR completely downplaying the event to a "weak storm system will track well south of the region".

Then this directly from the AFD:

GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE THE WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO

OUR SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW

OVERSPREADS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS ALL DAY SATURDAY.

TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM ABOUT ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AROUND LDM TO

AROUND A QUARTER INCH AROUND JXN. THIS IS BASICALLY A PROLONGED 2 TO

4 INCH LIGHT SNOW EVENT WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SE OF GRR. SOME

TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY... ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS LIKE LAN AND JXN

WHICH HAVE NOT YET EXPERIENCED MUCH SNOW THIS YEAR.

So basically, since GR is not going to get much snow, the entire area won't see much snow. (Even though 2-4" with higher amounts likely SE of GR obviously would warrant a high-end advisory/low-end warning event) lol

Since when is 2-4" with locally higher amounts over the course of like 18 hours a warning in Michigan? Ratios could be pretty nice over MI so if the models keep nudging things NW you could certainly fluff out a few inches.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
  • Author
Posted

Skilling's RPM going with 3.3" at ORD, 5.6" at VPZ, 6"+ in southern counties, fwiw

 

 

His RPM was always too high last year, but I don't know if that's how it was always is, or if that's just because every storm busted last year.

If the recent bumps back north hold that looks realistic.

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

SWS out for lake shore communities/counties in WI.

 

 

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

WIZ052-059-060-065-066-071-072-130400-
SHEBOYGAN-WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-RACINE-KENOSHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SHEBOYGAN...WEST BEND...
PORT WASHINGTON...WAUKESHA...BROOKFIELD...MILWAUKEE...RACINE...
KENOSHA
400 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND TO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODELS SHOW MILWAUKEE
COUNTY AS THE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR A PERIOD OF HIGH SNOWFALL
RATES UNDER A DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. TIMING OF THE ONSET
OF THIS SNOWBAND IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD IMPACT THE
EVENING RUSH HOUR AND WEEKEND TRAVELERS.

LOOK FOR SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE
LAKESHORE TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. WITH EASTERLY FLOW...EXPECT ANY OF THESE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REACH ONE TO TWO COUNTIES INLAND FROM THE
LAKE.

STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES...AS LAKE EFFECT SNOW FORECASTS CAN CHANGE
FREQUENTLY.

$

MRC

 

 

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stormtrackertf

stormtrackertf

Posted
Posted

Very exciting trends for SEMI/NWOH right now. Really liked the in-depth discussion from DTX's AFD.

I'm on the northern fringe of the 4-6"+ area right now which DTX thinks will be bound by I-96 (I am about 4 miles south of I-96) which seems like an odd cutoff line since 96 is a southeast-northwest highway and the gradient looks to be more southwest-northeast.

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Indystorm

Indystorm

Posted
Posted

Interesting snippet from IWX afternoon discussion this Thursday.

SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST AND WETTER SOUTH OF THE CWFA AND DRIERNORTH. REGARDLESS EXPECT TO SEE UPWARDS OF 5 INCHES ACROSS MOST OFTHE AREA.AS THE SYNOPTIC DRIVEN SNOW ENDS...LAKE EFFECT SHOULD CONTINUE INLAPORTE...ST. JOSEPH...BERRIEN AND CASS COUNTIES FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2TO 4 INCHES BY SATURDAY NIGHT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
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cyclone77

cyclone77

Posted
Posted

One hell of a tough forecast for the DVN area.  Dry air feeding in from the northeast is going to make for a sharp cutoff on amounts in these parts.  No lake to save us here.  Some of the models give us a healthy dose of precip, such as the 18z 4km.  Both the 12z/18z GFS completely shut us out.  The Euro seems to be a nice compromise, but with the extremely sharp cutoff, even a little tweak north or south makes a huge difference.  My first call for here and the QC is for 1-2", but I wouldn't be surprised if we either get completely shutout, or 4-5" if a 4km NAM type solution worked out. 

 

Little snippet from DVN this afternoon regarding the sharp cutoff on the north side...

 

INCREASING LOW TO MID LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FEED WILL
CONTINUE TO SHUTTLE DRIER AIR TOWARD TH AREA AS WELL AND MAY MAKE FOR
A SHARP CUT-OFF/NORTHERN EDGE TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW FIELDS OR DEF
ZONE-TYPE PRECIP REGION.

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
Posted

Since when is 2-4" with locally higher amounts over the course of like 18 hours a warning in Michigan?

 

It's not even close to Warning criteria.

 

That's what really takes the wind out of what could otherwise be a mildly enjoyable event (the fact that it will be a light/moderate snowfall which will take 18+ hours to add up). 

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dmc76

dmc76

Posted
Posted

Very exciting trends for SEMI/NWOH right now. Really liked the in-depth discussion from DTX's AFD.

I'm on the northern fringe of the 4-6"+ area right now which DTX thinks will be bound by I-96 (I am about 4 miles south of I-96) which seems like an odd cutoff line since 96 is a southeast-northwest highway and the gradient looks to be more southwest-northeast.

 

Latest model trends suggest everyone in SEMI will receive 4"-7". :)

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WestCoaster

WestCoaster

Posted
Posted

City of Toronto
4:04 PM EST Thursday 12 December 2013
Special weather statement for 
City of Toronto issued

Widespread snowfall event possible this weekend.

A disturbance forecast to emerge from the Southern Plains States is forecast to track northeast towards the Great Lakes Friday. Latest indications suggest this low will follow a path across Central Ohio Saturday to Central New York State by Sunday morning.

As a result, snow ahead of this disturbance is expected to reach Southwestern Ontario Friday night then spread northeast into the remainder of the regions on Saturday.

Current indications suggest a 5 to 10 cm snowfall event for many areas by Saturday night. This could be the first significant snowfall of the season for some locales including Windsor, Kitchener-Waterloo, Hamilton and Toronto which so far have escaped most of the lake effect snowstorms experienced over the past couple of weeks.

There is some potential for locally higher amounts of snow from this system in areas around the west end of Lake Ontario, as cold easterly winds pick up extra moisture from the relatively mild waters of the lake. Areas near the north shore of Lake Erie may also receive higher amounts as they will be closest to the track of the low.

How far north the snow spreads into the regions and the total snowfall amounts received will depend on the exact track and intensity of this disturbance. If the low pressure centre tracks a little further north than currently expected, total snowfall amounts may be somewhat higher by Sunday morning.

Motorists should be prepared for poor winter driving conditions after the snow arrives by Saturday.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

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