December 13-14th Winter Storm

[Ajdos]

18z nam brings a good 6-8" event for Detroit..

[Ajdos]

I'll give the Euro points for consistency but the NAM seems to wobble north and south every few runs.

 

Boardbrush DAB-3" across LOT highest south with maybe a couple 4" jackpots near IKK.

 

Take it to the bank.

I think Euro did the same...

[Thundersnow12]

Between the Euro, GGEM, 18z NAM and hi-res models, there's plenty of reason to have some optimism around there.

And with it starting tomorrow night, going to be interesting to see what LOT does with headlines now.

[Chicago Storm]

people were talking about moderate hit potential up this way yesterday.

obv Indy looks good.

The southern 1/3 of the LOT CWA is in line for a moderate event.

I haven't taken moderate hit potential out of consideration farther north either yet...but I'm not optimistic about it nor do I have any expectation.

[A-L-E-K]

The Euro has consistently shown at least an inch or two...while the NAM has ranged from DAB to 5". The GFS has been a consistent let down. And who gives a crap about the GEM and Ukie.

 

If the NAM can string together a few more with  favorable northern extent + we see some improvement/consistency from the SREF I'd feel alot better about better than a dusting prospects.

[Stebo]

people were talking about moderate hit potential up this way yesterday.

 

obv Indy looks good.

You are about 30-40 miles away from a 2-4 3-5, that is why people are/were talking about a moderate hit. Any shift north puts Chicago right back into the game.

[CIWeather]

The southern 1/3 of the LOT CWA is in line for a moderate event. I haven't taken moderate hit potential out of consideration farther north either yet...but I'm not optimistic about it nor do I have any expectation.

 

What are your thoughts at this point about us down near the I-72 (Springfield, Decatur, Champaign) corridor?

[michsnowfreak]

DTX

THE 12Z SUITE OF GUIDANCE ARRIVES WITH SAMPLING OF THE PV ANOMALY
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND MARGINAL UPPER AIR SAMPLING OF PORTIONS
OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH COMPLEX AS WELL AS EMERGING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. ALL THREE FEATURES WILL COME INTO
PLAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW
OVERSPREADS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.

A QUICK SUMMARY OF THE GUIDANCE - THE NCEP MODELS SHOWED LITTLE
CHANGE WHILE THE GEM REMAINED ON THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SIDE.
NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENTS WERE OBSERVED BY THE ECMWF AND UKMET WHICH
HAVE BOTH TRENDED DECIDEDLY STRONGER AND SLOWER. FOR THE PURPOSE OF
GETTING A FULL HANDLE ON THE SPECTRUM OF MODEL SOLUTIONS, IT IS
PERHAPS WORTH NOTING THAT EVEN THE EXTENDED/48HR PANELS OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION NMM IS MORE ROBUST IN ITS SOLUTIONS. THIS LEAVES THE GFS
ON THE WEAKER END OF THE CONSENSUS AND THE NAM AN APPARENT OUTLIER
ALTOGETHER, WHICH IS EXPECTED AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY
THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE.

THERE ARE MULTIPLE CAUSES FOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE TREND NOTED IN THE
ECMWF AND UKMET. FIRST, THE EMERGING ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
OF ALASKA/NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS DEPICTED ON
PLANVIEWS OF 400MB POTENTIAL VORTICITY AS BEING CONSIDERABLY MORE
COHERENT AS IT SWEEPS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WAS A TREND THAT WAS ACTUALLY OBSERVED TO SOME EXTENT AMONG
MULTIPLE MEMBERS OF THE 12Z SUITE. IN ADDITION, ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE DIGGING WEST COAST TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MORE CONSOLIDATED
IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THAT WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NEW
MEXICO/WESTERN TEXAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THE LEAD
DAMPENING PV ANOMALY THAT IS BEING EJECTED NORTHEAST - AND WHICH IS
PROGGED TO ARRIVE COINCIDENT WITH THE INITIAL SLUG OF DEEP MOISTURE
- WILL BE PULLED FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST INSTEAD OF SHEARING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE NET EFFECT IS A CONSIDERABLY MORE ROBUST
PATTERN OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN THE
PRESENCE OF A PRONOUNCED INVERTED LOW-LEVEL TROUGH AS ALL FEATURES
INVOLVED LOOK A TOUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER IN PROXIMITY.

PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK TO SAG THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
STILL FULLY AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT QPF IS OVERSIMULATED
HERE, BUT ALSO FEEL THAT THE COLLAPSING THERMAL GRADIENT RESULTING
FROM INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD EASILY TOUCH OFF AN
FGEN RESPONSE AND HAVE THEREFORE MOVED FORWARD WITH LIGHT QPF INVOF
THE FRONT. LESS THAN ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF M59 FRI AFTN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. RIGHT ENTRANCE JET SUPPORT WILL THEN DEVELOP LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE THE CORRIDOR OF
STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS BECOMES INCREASINGLY FOCUSED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES IN THE FASHION DESCRIBED ABOVE RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL THAT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY.

AS FOR AMOUNTS, TAKEN AT FACE VALUE THE 12Z ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT 3 TO
5 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH INCREASING TO 5 TO 7 SOUTH OF 8 MILE. EVEN
THE SOMEWHAT LESS IMPRESSIVE GFS SUPPORTS SIMILAR, IF SOMEWHAT
TEMPERED VALUES. THE FORECAST HAS THEREFORE BEEN TRENDED IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE GROWING CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW
ESSENTIALLY: 2-4" NORTH OF I-69, 3-5" NORTH OF I-96, 4-6" SOUTH OF
THERE. AS FOR HEADLINES, THE LONG 18+ HOUR DURATION OF THE BULK OF
THE SNOWFALL SUGGESTS A SOLID ADVISORY EVENT. WILL AFFORD THE
MID-SHIFT THE OPPORTUNITY TO PERUSE ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE BEFORE
CONSIDERING ISSUANCE.

[A-L-E-K]

pretty good disco from DTX

[Chargers09]

4-6 sounds like a good call! Wouldnt be surprised to see a few lollipops of 7 or so. 

[Chicago Storm]

What are your thoughts at this point about us down near the I-72 (Springfield, Decatur, Champaign) corridor?

A solid moderate event. Probably widespread 2-6"...

[Whitelakeroy]

Nice, where are you exactly?

 

I'm just north of M59 off Byron rd.

 

I don't think there is any snowfall average difference between Ann Arbor or Walled Lake... I work in both cities quite a bit and have good comparison intervals, its hit or miss.

I sent you a PM of were I am.

 

Yeah I doubt I notice much of a difference in snow fall per year from WL.  Heck I used to live in Houghton for 5 years ... I still miss those 200"+ winters!  I have learned to head west and north to see the big ones.  Last winter I was up in Petoskey/Boyne area and got 18"+ while there.

 

It will be nice to get a little something out of this one around here!

[Gilbertfly]

The writing is on the wall with a Pacific WV loop IMO

[A-L-E-K]

The writing is on the wall with a Pacific WV loop IMO

 

 

?

 

Gonna go on record with a call or wait to the last minute like Chicago Storm

[Baum]

Final Call

.7 by Aking

6.1 by Geos

3.8 by Thundersnow

2.4 by Chicago storm

1.9 IMBY

[on_wx]

EC WFO Toronto

 

   WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL EVENT POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==

A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO EMERGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.
LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS LOW WILL FOLLOW A PATH ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO SATURDAY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE BY SUNDAY MORNING.

AS A RESULT, SNOW AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGIONS ON SATURDAY.

CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST A 5 TO 10 CM SNOWFALL EVENT FOR MANY
AREAS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR SOME LOCALES INCLUDING WINDSOR,
KITCHENER-WATERLOO, HAMILTON AND TORONTO WHICH SO FAR HAVE ESCAPED
MOST OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWSTORMS EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF WEEKS.

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF SNOW FROM
THIS SYSTEM IN AREAS AROUND THE WEST END OF LAKE ONTARIO, AS COLD
EASTERLY WINDS PICK UP EXTRA MOISTURE FROM THE RELATIVELY MILD
WATERS OF THE LAKE. AREAS NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE MAY ALSO
RECEIVE HIGHER AMOUNTS AS THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.

HOW FAR NORTH THE SNOW SPREADS INTO THE REGIONS AND THE TOTAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS RECEIVED WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE. IF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTRE TRACKS A
LITTLE FURTHER NORTH THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER BY SUNDAY MORNING.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS
AFTER THE SNOW ARRIVES BY SATURDAY.

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS AS
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED OR EXTENDED.

END

 

 

[Baum]

BTW..OT...where's Bowme ?

[A-L-E-K]

Final Call

.7 by Aking

6.1 by Geos

3.8 by Thundersnow

2.4 by Chicago storm

1.9 IMBY

 

 

swap you and Chicago Storm and it's not a bad call

[A-L-E-K]

BTW..OT...where's Bowme ?

 

 

wondering the same thing

[Chicago Storm]

Gonna go on record with a call or wait to the last minute like Chicago Storm

lol

[Geos]

Thanks for the 6" Baum!

 

Yeah really, wonder where BowMe has been.

 

MKX discussion on the LES.

 

 

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND EAST NORTHEAST TOWARD 12Z
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING FRONT.

NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING. SEVERAL MODELS ARE POINTING TO A
CONVERGENT LAKE EFFECT BAND SETTING UP OVER MILWAUKEE COUNTY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
HIGH SNOWFALL RATES AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. STAY TUNED AS WE GATHER
MORE CONFIDENCE ABOUT LOCATION AND IMPACT.

 

 

[Harry Perry]

GRR completely downplaying the event to a "weak storm system will track well south of the region".

Then this directly from the AFD:

GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE THE WEAK SYSTEM PASSING BY TO

OUR SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW

OVERSPREADS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS ALL DAY SATURDAY.

TOTAL QPF RANGES FROM ABOUT ONE TENTH OF AN INCH AROUND LDM TO

AROUND A QUARTER INCH AROUND JXN. THIS IS BASICALLY A PROLONGED 2 TO

4 INCH LIGHT SNOW EVENT WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS SE OF GRR. SOME

TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY... ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS LIKE LAN AND JXN

WHICH HAVE NOT YET EXPERIENCED MUCH SNOW THIS YEAR.

So basically, since GR is not going to get much snow, the entire area won't see much snow. (Even though 2-4" with higher amounts likely SE of GR obviously would warrant a high-end advisory/low-end warning event) lol

[Harry Perry]

pretty good disco from DTX

Very nice write-up. Definitely takes a lot to get them excited.

[Gilbertfly]

?

 

Gonna go on record with a call or wait to the last minute like Chicago Storm

 

over (2.5 for clipper 8+ for this system)

 

EDIT:  I will add this before people think I am nuts....

 

either way you slice it...this system has a fairly decent setup for prolonged lake enhancement...whether it ends up being a little better phase then depicted now (which I think will happen) or its a messy phase/transfer situation

 

 

 

riding it like a 25 cent pony ride at K-Mart ....  In all honesty though...I told Joe in PM I am thinking 6 to 10 for LOT

 

And in terms of the "?" .... I think the trend will continue tonight for nudging precip shield north and adding QPF...I believe there will be more interaction between the kicker and SW...I have thought since the beginning that the there would be a little bit cleaner and earlier phase then what the models have been depicting over the last 48 hours...nothing bombing out by no means....but simply more/better interaction....and this scenario would help pump better QPF further north and present an even better scenario for lake enhancement then what has been shown...again, nothing bombing...but certainly a tad more amped despite the progressive nature of the set-up as a whole.

 

Models have been moving the cut off to fast and the northern pacific system too slow and weak over the last 48-72 hours....one thing that I do feel was squared away yesterday...cleaning up the polar jet interaction east of us...we'll see how it goes tonight....but that's my 2 cents...cheers

[Thundersnow12]

 

riding it like a 25 cent pony ride at K-Mart ....  In all honesty though...I told Joe in PM I am thinking 6 to 10 for LOT

 

And in terms of the "?" .... I think the trend will continue tonight for nudging precip shield north and adding QPF...I believe there will be more interaction between the kicker and SW...I have thought since the beginning that the there would be a little bit cleaner and earlier phase then what the models have been depicting over the last 48 hours...nothing bombing out by no means....but simply more/better interaction....and this scenario would help pump better QPF further north and present an even better scenario for lake enhancement then what has been shown...again, nothing bombing...but certainly a tad more amped despite the progressive nature of the set-up as a whole.

 

Models have been moving the cut off to fast and the northern pacific system too slow and weak over the last 48-72 hours....one thing that I do feel was squared away yesterday...cleaning up the polar jet interaction east of us...we'll see how it goes tonight....but that's my 2 cents...cheers

 

 

you'd get my vote for call of the last few winters 

[Ajdos]

18z GFS looks pretty good! 

[A-L-E-K]

cool and props for going public with the call

[Thundersnow12]

The GFS is further north but not NAM north. Could be the case where now it starts it's slow trend back north. 

[ILSNOW]

18z GFS thru 48hrs

 

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121218&time=PER&var=SNODI&hour=048

[A-L-E-K]

The GFS is further north but not NAM north. Could be the case where now it starts it's slow trend back north.

would be nice to start seeing an actual trend north and not just wobbles