Jonger Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I live near Howell. I got into Livingston County out of over taxed Oakland. I get a bit less snow then AA and WL but t-storms are much better than WL and storm chasing here is easy ... Flint, AA and Lansing are within 30 mins. Nice, where are you exactly? I'm just north of M59 off Byron rd. I don't think there is any snowfall average difference between Ann Arbor or Walled Lake... I work in both cities quite a bit and have good comparison intervals, its hit or miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 EURO has a stronger primary low which is why we see the bump up in snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'll stick with my 2-4" locally 6" preliminary call...but if the models start to stabilize around 1/2" of QPF, that range will have to go up some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I don't think you're allowed to post those Snowstorms. I'd send it to him via PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Alright i'll see what i can do but here's the snow map he sent me before. ecmwf_tsnow_east_13.png Judging by that, about 3.5-4". You might not be allowed to post WxBell stuff. And even if you were allowed, WxBell maps are pretty sketchy. I've seen them produce snow where 850 temps were +2 C before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Using 12:1 snow ratios, 6". ^ Btw, I dont have access to the premium, but i know the guy that does so i get it from him lol. Thanks for posting the text. Definitely a great run for us, especially considering the ups-and-downs of the trends over the last 5 days or so. Temps are nice and cold too, wouldn't be surprised to see a snow equivalent a bit better than 12:1.... 15:1 not out of the realm of possibility (at least for part of the event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I don't think you're allowed to post those Snowstorms. I'd send it to him via PM. Oh alright! I deleted the post. I got a friend who's in one of my classes at University and he's doing Meteorology (not what I'm doing), and he has access to this stuff. I told him about these forums, maybe he'll join one day, lol. You might not be allowed to post WxBell stuff. And even if you were allowed, WxBell maps are pretty sketchy. I've seen them produce snow where 850 temps were +2 C before. Yeah I deleted the post. Yeah you have to get raw data, usually snow maps dont really offer insight, their more broad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z UKIE looks great as well. Looks identical to all the other models. Edit: ChiStorm's battery is always close to being dead haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I hope the Euro isn't right with that relative precip min from STL to LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Oh boy the GFS is horrendous for these parts. It's a shame because that precip field looks so healthy down in Missouri and then just gets sheared apart and shunted east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 SREF mean for VPZ is continuing its downward trend in total QPF the last three runs, from 0.33" to 0.28" to now just 0.21". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Euro qpf for dtw is 0.44" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 SREF mean for VPZ is continuing its downward trend in total QPF the last three runs, from 0.33" to 0.28" to now just 0.21". yep, any one looking for hope needs to take notice of this and temper expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 yep, any one looking for hope needs to take notice of this and temper expectations. I don't think anyone around here even has high expectations at this point. Obviously points south/southeast are a lock for a moderate hit though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 yep, any one looking for hope needs to take notice of this and temper expectations. Looks like a foreign vs American model battle shaping up in your area. This is purely anecdotal but it seems like the foreign suite wins out more often than not when that's the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIWeather Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 WWA issued in Indiana for 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Looks like a foreign vs American model battle shaping up in your area. This is purely anecdotal but it seems like the foreign suite wins out more often than not when that's the case. The GGEM seems to be most consistent, with the GFS least, if that's worth anything. The UKMET also shifted north slightly in this areas from its 0z, but it's still only ~0.1"-0.2" imby. Along with the NAM shifting south today, it seems that a decent consensus for a central IL/central IN band is emerging (with the exception of, I think it was the Euro, that has a dryslot in that same area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The GGEM seems to be most consistent, with the GFS least, if that's worth anything. The UKMET also shifted north slightly in this areas from its 0z, but it's still only ~0.1"-0.2" imby. Along with the NAM shifting south today, it seems that a decent consensus for a central IL/central IN band is emerging (with the exception of, I think it was the Euro, that has a dryslot in that same area). Ah, I forgot to look at UKIE precip. I once read that it tended to place it too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Only seeing noise level changes on the NAM through 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 12, 2013 Author Share Posted December 12, 2013 18z NAM is coming back north...at least through 30hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 First guess is NAM comes north just looking at where the snow is in MO at 24hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kbotc Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 First guess is NAM comes north just looking at where the snow is in MO at 24hrs No, not the dry slot in Central Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Solid event on the nam! Much better thn 6z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I don't think anyone around here even has high expectations at this point. Obviously points south/southeast are a lock for a moderate hit though. people were talking about moderate hit potential up this way yesterday. obv Indy looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 IIRC, you can post wxbell but not euro stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 So both the NAM and Euro now get .30"+ liquid up to I-88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Sref plumes show a mean of 3" at dtw. Fairly large spread between 1" and 6" 15z run now pretty well clustered between 2" and 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 So both the NAM and Euro now get .30"+ liquid up to I-88 I'll give the Euro points for consistency but the NAM seems to wobble north and south every few runs. Boardbrush DAB-3" across LOT highest south with maybe a couple 4" jackpots near IKK. Take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 So both the NAM and Euro now get .30"+ liquid up to I-88 Between the Euro, GGEM, 18z NAM and hi-res models, there's plenty of reason to have some optimism around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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