toronto blizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z GEM with a bullseye of LES around YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z GEM with a bullseye of LES around YYZ. The GFS has also trended towards the Nam as well. Odds are increasing, lets hope we can get a more better understanding once its fully sampled. As SSC mentioned, the conditions in place, should be favorable for Toronto to cash in on some LES, if the track stays in line for a good wind alignment. Still going with a general 5-8cm. The potential is there for more if LES plays a role esp south of about Highway 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12z GEM with a bullseye of LES around YYZ. Yup. GEM has been remarkably consistent with LES for the western GTA and 'sauga. EC calling for 2-4" whereas the GFS and GEM have 6"; really comes down to how the lake enhancement affects totals. At this point I think 2-4" is a good call with local amounts of up to 6" for some western spots. I could see NE regions like northern Scarborough, Markham, etc seeing only a couple inches out of this, with Etobicoke seeing 4"+ Oshawa may barely see an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Should close the screw hole in the subforum Definitely. 100% snow cover for the whole subforum then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Is it me or is the 12z GEM pretty far north with at least a wider area of lighter snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 12Z NMM east looks promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Is it me or is the 12z GEM pretty far north with at least a wider area of lighter snows? Yes, it is a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Tough forecast for Chicago proper. Minor wobbles either way could make the difference between very little and perhaps 3" or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 you will get more than an inch...and i dont recall the nam showing 8-11"! Meteogram was showing 8" on the low side and 11" on the high side on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Tough forecast for Chicago proper. Minor wobbles either way could make the difference between very little and perhaps 3" or more. Yeah, it's right there. I am still going to stick with 0"-1" north of I-80, and 2"-6" south of I-80. If the system comes in 20 miles north, then, all bets are off. I won't quote odds either way at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Euro looks to be coming north at least some with area of snow through 6z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yup. GEM has been remarkably consistent with LES for the western GTA and 'sauga. EC calling for 2-4" whereas the GFS and GEM have 6"; really comes down to how the lake enhancement affects totals. At this point I think 2-4" is a good call with local amounts of up to 6" for some western spots. I could see NE regions like northern Scarborough, Markham, etc seeing only a couple inches out of this, with Etobicoke seeing 4"+ Oshawa may barely see an inch We'll see what the EURO says but that's probably what my prelim. call will be as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 EUro is north with prcp...lower Michigan and Chicago gets into the action as well, good thus far (hr48( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 EUro is north with prcp...lower Michigan and Chicago gets into the action as well, good thus far (hr48( Liking the 12z Euro already... could be a great run for YYZ with this track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GEM really picking up on the Lake Ontario lake effect band. Looks like its right over my backyard (SSC as well)! My 2nd call for YYZ: 3-5". For my backyard, 4-6". Will make a final call tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GEM really picking up on the Lake Ontario lake effect band. Looks like its right over my backyard (SSC as well)! Holy smoke that's a 20-25 cm band over my house lol. My 2nd call for YYZ: 3-5". For my backyard, 4-6". Will make a final call tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 GEM really picking up on the Lake Ontario lake effect band. Looks like its right over my backyard (SSC as well)! My 2nd call for YYZ: 3-5". For my backyard, 4-6". Will make a final call tomorrow afternoon. Woah. Pretty bullish 8-10" with that run! I would be floored if that verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Guys, that GGEM run is through 120. It's contaminated by the clipper at the end of the period. Can probably shave about 5mm off of it. Still impressive though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Guys, that GGEM run is through 120. It's contaminated by the clipper at the end of the period. Can probably shave about 5mm off of it. Still impressive though.Ya the clipper on Tuesday shows another 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I think Euro is a big improvement for S/E Michigan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Should close the screw hole in the subforum Well...almost close it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Damn, the latest Euro is a beauty for YYZ, quite the change from the 0z. Nice improvement. Decent precip rates and LES enhancement going on through 72 hours. 4-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Damn, the latest Euro is a beauty for YYZ, quite the change from the 0z. Nice improvement. Decent precip rates and LES enhancement going on through 72 hours. 4-7". That's music to my ears. After the NAM stepped off the gas a bit at 12z I was dreading it being a trend. Not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yep latest EURO is beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Guys, that GGEM run is through 120. It's contaminated by the clipper at the end of the period. Can probably shave about 5mm off of it. Still impressive though. Yes good point, should have mentioned that. Posted it primarily to emphasize the LE band on the model. Anyone have EURO text data for YYZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Yes good point, should have mentioned that. Posted it primarily to emphasize the LE band on the model. Anyone have EURO text data for YYZ? 12Z DEC12 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK SAT 12Z 14-DEC -11.1 -15.2 1032 66 100 0.03 545 521 SAT 18Z 14-DEC -7.1 -13.3 1026 74 98 0.08 543 524 SUN 00Z 15-DEC -6.7 -10.3 1019 83 99 0.14 540 526 SUN 06Z 15-DEC -6.3 -8.2 1012 88 99 0.20 535 526 SUN 12Z 15-DEC -11.1 -10.0 1012 88 56 0.03 533 524 Using 12:1 snow ratios, 6". ^ Btw, I dont have access to the premium, but i know the guy that does so i get it from him lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Regardless of what any individual model says, it's pretty clear at this point we'll be sweating it out until the last minute here at VPZ and areas just a little north. LAF looks golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Using 12:1 snow ratios, 6". ^ Btw, I dont have access to the premium, but i know the guy that does so i get it from him lol. Feel like running VPZ for me? I thought ChicagoWX (or maybe it was Chi Storm?) used to do it in a big list, but I haven't seen it yet this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Using 12:1 snow ratios, 6". ^ Btw, I dont have access to the premium, but i know the guy that does so i get it from him lol. Considering that is for YYZ, I wouldn't be surprised to see some 8" totals for someone around the lake west of Yonge street all the way to Hamilton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Definitely. 100% snow cover for the whole subforum then.Just can't wait for all the grasstips to go! At least there is snow on the ground, but its time for a blanket. What's funny is this is the 4th day in a row of snow depth 1" from a climo perspective, but I technically haven't had snow depth of solid 1" since march. (Depth was 0.6 thanksgiving, and has ranged 0.5-0.7" this week). Few inches of powder and ill be content...but many more are welcomed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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