stormtrackertf Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 2-4" is a good start here. So far we've just had 1-inchers in the Metro area. 3-6" would be great, but I'm not betting on that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Bah, missed again. 742 days without a 4 inch storm in Howell continues. Sent from my HTC6435LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Great run for LAF...slower/north at 500...decent defo like feature. hoosier should like Not shocked at all that the southern stream is slower, the models are finally catching up to what I suspected would happen a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Not shocked at all that the southern stream is slower, the models are finally catching up to what I suspected would happen a few days ago. So would this make the 18z NAM more likely to verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Still kicking myself for being out of town for that one. Hoping I get a second chance eventually. OB missed a couple of storms on that list. 2007, 1984, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Hmmm, point and click forecast for Detroit city-proper. Friday Night Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Saturday Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 27. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Not shocked at all that the southern stream is slower, the models are finally catching up to what I suspected would happen a few days ago. it's still a swing and miss on a proper phase and I don't think there's much more wiggle room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 So would this make the 18z NAM more likely to verify? It depends on whether the first southern stream vort ends up stronger than its kicker, which on this run is much weaker. It could just be a NAM blip but the weaker kicker is why the initial vort is slower so in a vacuum it makes meteorological sense. The thing is the strength of the kicker wave. The stronger it is earlier the less of a chance the initial vort slows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 it's still a swing and miss on a proper phase and I don't think there's much more wiggle room. Not expecting a full phase with this one at this point, that potential is long gone, however any interaction between the 2 waves is golden. We need the southern stream wave to be further north for the region as it brings the moisture up here, without that it will be another clipper fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 So would this make the 18z NAM more likely to verify? We'll see what happens in the next few days as the pieces of energy get fully sampled. We'll get a clear picture by this time Friday in determining if we get a minor snowfall (1-2") or a moderate snowfall (4+"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 We'll see what happens in the next few days as the pieces of energy get fully sampled. We'll get a clear picture by this time Friday in determining if we get a minor snowfall (1-2") or a moderate snowfall (4+"). Also got to keep an eye on the potential for lake effect snow of lake ontario and an arctic front which could enhance accumulations. NAM is 3-6'' for us verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Not expecting a full phase with this one at this point, that potential is long gone, however any interaction between the 2 waves is golden. We need the southern stream wave to be further north for the region as it brings the moisture up here, without that it will be another clipper fail. ok gotcha, I wasn't sure what you were on the board for. This is definitely a step in the right direction for those on the border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Also got to keep an eye on the potential for lake effect snow of lake ontario and an arctic front which could enhance accumulations. NAM is 3-6'' for us verbatim. Yeah, models keep hinting at a small wave passing by our area Friday afternoon. That could give us an inch or so before the main show on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 nicely done by RC from LOT OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND ESSENTIALLY EJECTING THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT AN INVERTED GULF COAST SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE COULD LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH...SETTING UP GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS A GOOD DEAL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A COUPLE DAYS AWAY SO UNCERTAINTY...PARTICULARLY IN THE MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL HIGH. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER FAVORED AREAS FOR BETTER COUPLING OF THE LARGER SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MY AREA. CURRENT ESTIMATES...SUCH AS THE GARCIA METHOD SUGGESTS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 5 OR 6 INCHES ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...MORE EXACT AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON ANY OF THE MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 ok gotcha, I wasn't sure what you were on the board for. This is definitely a step in the right direction for those on the border nice front end band of snow on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 I think we in Toronto have to be realistic. Remember that the storm on February 8th was one of the biggest synoptic snowstorms to hit the downtown Toronto area since the Second World War, with only 1944, 1966, 1992 and 1999 ranking up with it. 10-12" snowfalls are rare in Toronto. The models always show us getting a lot of snow - especially the NAM - only to have them back off as the system gets closer. I'm going with 2" with this one. Yeah but you missed the most recent snowy winter, 2007-08, which did have storms above 12". 2000-01 was also a winter that featured some decent snowfall but i was only in Elementary school at that time so my memory aint that great, lol. On average, we often do see 6-10" events every Winter, with the outside chance of something greater. Seeing something in the 3-6" is most common by far. The latest Nam showed something far better than what other models depicted. If it were exploited further I would suspect 5-8" on the Nam in Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 5-8" looks pretty good for this weekend, great runs by the NAM. It has been much too long here that I've had to use a snowblower, have not the last two winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 OB missed a couple of storms on that list. 2007, 1984, etc. Playing a show in Stratford on Saturday so I won't be at home again for this event, but at least I'll be close by and could still get into some good accums, minus any lake effect from easterlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 nicely done by RC from LOT OTHERWISE...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND ESSENTIALLY EJECTING THE SOUTHWEST SYSTEM OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT AN INVERTED GULF COAST SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE COULD LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS SURFACE TROUGH...SETTING UP GOOD ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS A GOOD DEAL OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREADING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL A COUPLE DAYS AWAY SO UNCERTAINTY...PARTICULARLY IN THE MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL HIGH. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BETTER FAVORED AREAS FOR BETTER COUPLING OF THE LARGER SCALE AND MESOSCALE FORCING WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MY AREA. CURRENT ESTIMATES...SUCH AS THE GARCIA METHOD SUGGESTS THAT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 5 OR 6 INCHES ACROSS MY SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH A FEW INCHES POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...MORE EXACT AMOUNTS WILL HAVE TO BE IRONED OUT AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON ANY OF THE MESOSCALE ASPECTS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. Good write up. 1"-3" north of I-80 would be my guess..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 5-8" looks pretty good for this weekend, great runs by the NAM. It has been much too long here that I've had to use a snowblower, have not the last two winters Good Ol' Bowling Green, my place of origin. I'd like to just use the shovel for the first time this season. Not much of a purpose to owning a snowblower here in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Gulf of Alaska LP stronger than what the 12Z GFS progged it to be at 18Z today...984 vs. 980 ..... not a ton...but considering it's only 6 hours into it's run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Gulf of Alaska LP stronger than what the 12Z GFS progged it to be at 18Z today...984 vs. 980 ..... not a ton...but considering it's only 6 hours into it's run.... It could be a resolution issue depending on what site you're using (NCEP is probably worst in that regard). For instance the one I'm looking at for the 12z GFS had it at 982 mb for 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 It could be a resolution issue depending on what site you're using (NCEP is probably worst in that regard). For instance the one I'm looking at for the 12z GFS had it at 982 mb for 18z. Ah ok....quite true....thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Not shocked at all that the southern stream is slower, the models are finally catching up to what I suspected would happen a few days ago. +1 good call like your insights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Really riding the edge here with this thing. Natural first call is for 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 LOT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 For now going with 1-4" here with a mix of snow and sleet then drizzle or FZDR if its cool enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Skilling showed this tonight. Assuming it's the RPM given the GFS or NAM isn't that far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 5-8" looks pretty good for this weekend, great runs by the NAM. It has been much too long here that I've had to use a snowblower, have not the last two winters I'm hoping that you're right, but I'm being a little more pessimistic. 3"-5" is my call for NE IN and NW OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I will stick with 1"-3" for now, for LOT areas north of I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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